Illini basketball is currently on a 10-day hiatus for final exams after playing 10 games. They certainly exceeded my expectations, as they currently boast a 9-1 record with their only loss coming by a mere 2 points. It turns out that Georgia was a pushover but the other 4 games were competitive, as expected. I will try to do a month 2 preview a little later, but I might not get the chance since I will be on travel and it is tough to make a detailed posting using only an iPhone.
Let's take a look at the rotation and cumulative stats and see what was unexpected or interesting about the first month of the season. As always, I am using stats available on fightingillini.com .
Rotation (minutes per game):
The rotation hasn't offered many surprises. The only major deviation from preseason expecations is that Calvin Brock only gets 16 mpg compared to the expected 24 mpg. Last year he got 22.1 mpg so his role has diminished. He is struggling with his shooting (.383 FG%, .200 3PT%, and .533 FT%) so he is spending more time on the bench.
FG%/FGA:
The two players with the most FGA are Mike Davis and Demetri McCamey, who uncoincidentally are our leading scorers. At least that means we don't have any chuckers on the team who are killing our offense. Of our 9-man rotation, the worst FG% is Brock at .383 and the best is Keller at .560. Maybe we should get Keller some more shots. Perhaps the most notable thing is that our team FG% so far has improved to .474 from .435 last year. That is substantial improvement.
3PT%/3PA:
Our only notable 3-point shooters are our 3 starting guards. That is probably how it should be. One disturbing stat is that McCamey has the most 3PA but only makes 29.8% of his 3's. This suggests that Demetri is falling in love with the 3 a bit and should hold off from trying contested or off-rhythm bombs. Frazier is limiting his 3's and as such is shooting nearly 40%. Meacham is doing a great job taking a lot of 3's and making nearly 44% of them.
FT%/FTA:
We are making 71% of our free throws this year compared to only 61% last year. That is a big improvement, although we have been slipping a bit lately. Thankfully, some of that is because our garbage time players are bringing down the average. Most of our main guys are very solid at the line and I have total confidence in them this year.
Rebounds:
Rebounding has become a big weakness lately. The bottom line is that Mike Davis is our only solid rebounder with his 8.7 rpg. Tisdale and the backup big men need to step it up because we are letting up a lot of second chance points in the paint. That could lead to a lot of defeats in month 2.
Assists:
All 3 of our starting guards have at least a 1.8 A/TO ratio. Chester Frazier has a silly number of assists so far and has been doing an outstanding job.
Points:
We have four players averaging at least 9.9 ppg: Davis, McCamey, Meacham, and Tisdale. We are getting a solid, balanced scoring output from our starters. Frazier is more a distributor but he fills that role well. The key is to get a little more consistency and balance on a game-to-game basis, as some wild fluctuations have sort of averaged themselves out.
Thursday, December 11, 2008
Wednesday, December 3, 2008
Super sophomores?
One of the biggest questions this year would be how our sophomores develop. Not only are they key players this season, but they will lay the foundation for the next two seasons. We have seven sophomores on the roster so let's look at how they are doing so far.
Mike Davis - 29.6 mpg, 14.9 ppg, 9.4 rpg, 1.4 apg
Demetri McCamey - 32.6 mpg, 13.1 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 4.3 apg
Mike Tisdale - 22.1 mpg, 8.6 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 0.3 apg
Richard Semrau - 15.1 mpg, 2.7 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 0.4 apg
Jeff Jordan - 9.3 mpg, 1.1 ppg, 0.3 rpg, 0.3 apg
Bill Cole - 3.0 mpg, 0.6 ppg, 0.6 rpg, 0.3 apg
Alex Legion - not eligible
Our sophomore class combines for 56% of our minutes, 60% of our scoring (41/68 ppg), 65% of our rebounding (not counting team rebounds), and 40% of our assists. That is very solid.
5 of the 9 players in our rotation are sophomores. I think Legion takes all of Jordan's minutes, so I'm going to ignore both of them for now and focus on the four major contributors. McCamey, Davis, and Tisdale are starters and Semrau is a key backup.
The common thread with these four is that they all have talent but they also need to improve their overall game and their consistency. McCamey (23), Davis (28), and Tisdale (20) have already all had at least one 20-point game and Semrau has a high of 9. Nobody else on the team has broken the 20-point mark. All four have been shut down at times, with low scores of 8 for McCamey, 2 for Davis, and 0 for Tisdale and Semrau. McCamey gets very sloppy at times on both sides of the floor, Davis and Tisdale are both rail thin, and Semrau is still trying to gain confidence and needs to finish opportunities around the hoop.
Overall, I'd have to say that these four have performed better than expected (McCamey may be about what we expected) and have been the reason for the somewhat surprising 6-1 start. Davis is a budding star, Tisdale is a clutch finisher, and Semrau is our muscle in the post.
Add two more years and Alex Legion to this group and you have an NCAA Tournament team. Add two more classes of stud recruits (including the redshirting Simpson) and you have a special team. If the future looked bright a month ago, it is going supernova now.
Mike Davis - 29.6 mpg, 14.9 ppg, 9.4 rpg, 1.4 apg
Demetri McCamey - 32.6 mpg, 13.1 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 4.3 apg
Mike Tisdale - 22.1 mpg, 8.6 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 0.3 apg
Richard Semrau - 15.1 mpg, 2.7 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 0.4 apg
Jeff Jordan - 9.3 mpg, 1.1 ppg, 0.3 rpg, 0.3 apg
Bill Cole - 3.0 mpg, 0.6 ppg, 0.6 rpg, 0.3 apg
Alex Legion - not eligible
Our sophomore class combines for 56% of our minutes, 60% of our scoring (41/68 ppg), 65% of our rebounding (not counting team rebounds), and 40% of our assists. That is very solid.
5 of the 9 players in our rotation are sophomores. I think Legion takes all of Jordan's minutes, so I'm going to ignore both of them for now and focus on the four major contributors. McCamey, Davis, and Tisdale are starters and Semrau is a key backup.
The common thread with these four is that they all have talent but they also need to improve their overall game and their consistency. McCamey (23), Davis (28), and Tisdale (20) have already all had at least one 20-point game and Semrau has a high of 9. Nobody else on the team has broken the 20-point mark. All four have been shut down at times, with low scores of 8 for McCamey, 2 for Davis, and 0 for Tisdale and Semrau. McCamey gets very sloppy at times on both sides of the floor, Davis and Tisdale are both rail thin, and Semrau is still trying to gain confidence and needs to finish opportunities around the hoop.
Overall, I'd have to say that these four have performed better than expected (McCamey may be about what we expected) and have been the reason for the somewhat surprising 6-1 start. Davis is a budding star, Tisdale is a clutch finisher, and Semrau is our muscle in the post.
Add two more years and Alex Legion to this group and you have an NCAA Tournament team. Add two more classes of stud recruits (including the redshirting Simpson) and you have a special team. If the future looked bright a month ago, it is going supernova now.
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
Box Score Breakdown - First 2 Games
If you are like me, chances are you missed some or all of the online feeds for the first two Illini games so you only have a few postgame reports and two box scores to look at after two games. The TV situation for the Vanderbilt game is even worse (FSN Midwest isn't exactly a national cable network). So while we may not be 100% sure what Dominique Keller or Bubba Chisholm looks like, we do know that the Illini are 2-0 and that stats are available on fightingillini.com. So let's see what has happened through two games.
Minutes per game:
Since I posted a guess at the early rotation, let's see where there are significant deviations (>4 mpg) from what I expected. It turns out there are only two, and they are related:
Jeff Jordan (15.5 mpg, 8 mpg expected) and Calvin Brock (15.5 mpg, 24 mpg expected). Although MJ in the house didn't hurt JJ's minutes, I suspect that the real story here is the lack of impact Brock is having on the game. He is known for inconsistent effort, and 1-8 shooting is not going to cut it from him. Jeff Jordan is no chump, and I expect that Coach Weber will reward him with starts and minutes whenever one of the other guards does not live up to his high standards. Otherwise things are about as expected in terms of minutes. It is interesting to see Brock starting in place of McCamey, but I suspect that is to motivate Demetri to live up to his potential.
FG%
Trent Meacham is shooting over 61%, which is excellent for a guard. He may be the top performer so far. Mike Davis is also solid at 60% which means he is efficient at the PF spot. We are getting horrible shooting from our centers, which is a real problem. Tisdale is shooting 29% and Semrau is even worse at 20%. These wouldn't be acceptable numbers if they were Frazier's 3PT%, but coming from centers they are atrocious. This should be more like 60%. Unless this improves quickly, I'd expect to see a lot more of Davis at center with Keller or Cole at PF. Maybe you even play Stan Simpson if you get desperate. The team is shooting 44% (an okay number), which means that at least the right people are taking most of the shots.
3PT%
Meacham and McCamey each have 9 3FGA, Frazier has 4, and nobody else has more than 1. That is very good to see, as lazy or desperate long-range chucking from non-shooters could easily sink this team (especially since they aren't making any). McCamey is shooting 33% from 3 (a reasonable number for 9 attempts) and Meacham is scorching at 67%. He pulls our team average up to 39%, which is solid.
FT%
Free throws were the bane of the '07-'08 Illini's existence, and they shot a miserable 60.8%, with no player above 75% from the line. That was absurd, and with so many close games (and missed front ends of 1-and-1's) it added up to several agonizing defeats. Pruitt and Randle were the main offenders here, so improvement was expected this season. So far we are shooting a healthy 70% from the line, which is a healthy improvement. Our top 9 players are shooting a combined 74%, which is even more encouraging. Perhaps the most amazing stat is that Chester Frazier is on pace to make 64 free throws this year, as opposed to only 27 last year. That one sentence should give all Illini fans hope for the season.
Rebounds
The Illini are outrebounding their opponents 81-65 (8 rpg). Our front line (Tisdale, Semrau, Davis, Keller) are averaging the following #'s of rebounds per 40 minutes:
Tisdale - 9
Semrau - 13.3
Davis - 14.3
Keller - 14
Compare those numbers to our top 4 rotation rebounders last year:
Pruitt - 10.8
Randle - 8.7
Alexander - 8.5
Davis - 6.9
A few observations from this data:
*Frazier doesn't really rebound at a higher rate than the bigs. It is just that he rebounds well for a guard and plays so many more minutes per game than most of the bigs. He is not in the top 4 in terms of rebounds per 40 minutes in either season.
*We lost our top 3 rebounders from last season, so it was fair to wonder if we could rebound effectively this year.
*Our rebounding numbers are far superior so far this season, but it is tough to compare given that so far we've only had 2 games against low-major teams without much of an inside presence.
*Davis is a good rebounder -- better than Tisdale. I suspect Tisdale's rebounding struggles are what made most people question our rebounding ability for the season. Both Keller and Semrau are new to the rotation this year and appear to be solid rebounders. Tisdale is the only real weak link here, but he only gets 20 mpg so I think any softness on his part will be compensated for by Frazier's rebounding. Expect us to be just fine on the boards this year.
Fouls:
No Illini player has more than 6 fouls through 2 games. That suggests that foul trouble will not be a major factor this year, which is certainly encouraging. Usually this is only a big concern when you have a dominant big man (seniors like Brian Cook or Robert Archibald) or if you are starting Brian Randle on your team.
I'm not Brumby or Bruce Weber, so I won't try to analyze pace or defense. I imagine both will be similar to last season, although it will be interesting to see how our interior defense performs with less bulk but more shot-blocking.
After this analysis, I'd say there are three keys to the Vanderbilt game, and they are all related and have to do with shooting.
*The right players have to take the shots. Mike Davis needs a steady diet of mid-range shots and Meacham and McCamey should be the only 3-point shooters. Everyone else should be trying to attack the rim and get to the line.
*Either Meacham or McCamey to be hot from 3. I'm talking >50% and at least 5 attempts. Otherwise we likely don't break 60.
*We need improved production from the center position. Tisdale and Semrau average 34 minutes, 11 shots, and 4 FTA combined. Given that, we need them to total 13-14 or more points (instead of their lame 8.5 combined average). To give you an idea of the importance of 5 points, if you add 5 ppg in regulation to last year's team we go from 16-19 to 23-12, which is the difference between the '07-'08 nightmare and the decent '06-'07 season.
While I may have to resort to smoke signals to follow Thursday's game vs. Vanderbilt, I will be rooting hard for a fun Illini team and hoping for an upset victory!
Minutes per game:
Since I posted a guess at the early rotation, let's see where there are significant deviations (>4 mpg) from what I expected. It turns out there are only two, and they are related:
Jeff Jordan (15.5 mpg, 8 mpg expected) and Calvin Brock (15.5 mpg, 24 mpg expected). Although MJ in the house didn't hurt JJ's minutes, I suspect that the real story here is the lack of impact Brock is having on the game. He is known for inconsistent effort, and 1-8 shooting is not going to cut it from him. Jeff Jordan is no chump, and I expect that Coach Weber will reward him with starts and minutes whenever one of the other guards does not live up to his high standards. Otherwise things are about as expected in terms of minutes. It is interesting to see Brock starting in place of McCamey, but I suspect that is to motivate Demetri to live up to his potential.
FG%
Trent Meacham is shooting over 61%, which is excellent for a guard. He may be the top performer so far. Mike Davis is also solid at 60% which means he is efficient at the PF spot. We are getting horrible shooting from our centers, which is a real problem. Tisdale is shooting 29% and Semrau is even worse at 20%. These wouldn't be acceptable numbers if they were Frazier's 3PT%, but coming from centers they are atrocious. This should be more like 60%. Unless this improves quickly, I'd expect to see a lot more of Davis at center with Keller or Cole at PF. Maybe you even play Stan Simpson if you get desperate. The team is shooting 44% (an okay number), which means that at least the right people are taking most of the shots.
3PT%
Meacham and McCamey each have 9 3FGA, Frazier has 4, and nobody else has more than 1. That is very good to see, as lazy or desperate long-range chucking from non-shooters could easily sink this team (especially since they aren't making any). McCamey is shooting 33% from 3 (a reasonable number for 9 attempts) and Meacham is scorching at 67%. He pulls our team average up to 39%, which is solid.
FT%
Free throws were the bane of the '07-'08 Illini's existence, and they shot a miserable 60.8%, with no player above 75% from the line. That was absurd, and with so many close games (and missed front ends of 1-and-1's) it added up to several agonizing defeats. Pruitt and Randle were the main offenders here, so improvement was expected this season. So far we are shooting a healthy 70% from the line, which is a healthy improvement. Our top 9 players are shooting a combined 74%, which is even more encouraging. Perhaps the most amazing stat is that Chester Frazier is on pace to make 64 free throws this year, as opposed to only 27 last year. That one sentence should give all Illini fans hope for the season.
Rebounds
The Illini are outrebounding their opponents 81-65 (8 rpg). Our front line (Tisdale, Semrau, Davis, Keller) are averaging the following #'s of rebounds per 40 minutes:
Tisdale - 9
Semrau - 13.3
Davis - 14.3
Keller - 14
Compare those numbers to our top 4 rotation rebounders last year:
Pruitt - 10.8
Randle - 8.7
Alexander - 8.5
Davis - 6.9
A few observations from this data:
*Frazier doesn't really rebound at a higher rate than the bigs. It is just that he rebounds well for a guard and plays so many more minutes per game than most of the bigs. He is not in the top 4 in terms of rebounds per 40 minutes in either season.
*We lost our top 3 rebounders from last season, so it was fair to wonder if we could rebound effectively this year.
*Our rebounding numbers are far superior so far this season, but it is tough to compare given that so far we've only had 2 games against low-major teams without much of an inside presence.
*Davis is a good rebounder -- better than Tisdale. I suspect Tisdale's rebounding struggles are what made most people question our rebounding ability for the season. Both Keller and Semrau are new to the rotation this year and appear to be solid rebounders. Tisdale is the only real weak link here, but he only gets 20 mpg so I think any softness on his part will be compensated for by Frazier's rebounding. Expect us to be just fine on the boards this year.
Fouls:
No Illini player has more than 6 fouls through 2 games. That suggests that foul trouble will not be a major factor this year, which is certainly encouraging. Usually this is only a big concern when you have a dominant big man (seniors like Brian Cook or Robert Archibald) or if you are starting Brian Randle on your team.
I'm not Brumby or Bruce Weber, so I won't try to analyze pace or defense. I imagine both will be similar to last season, although it will be interesting to see how our interior defense performs with less bulk but more shot-blocking.
After this analysis, I'd say there are three keys to the Vanderbilt game, and they are all related and have to do with shooting.
*The right players have to take the shots. Mike Davis needs a steady diet of mid-range shots and Meacham and McCamey should be the only 3-point shooters. Everyone else should be trying to attack the rim and get to the line.
*Either Meacham or McCamey to be hot from 3. I'm talking >50% and at least 5 attempts. Otherwise we likely don't break 60.
*We need improved production from the center position. Tisdale and Semrau average 34 minutes, 11 shots, and 4 FTA combined. Given that, we need them to total 13-14 or more points (instead of their lame 8.5 combined average). To give you an idea of the importance of 5 points, if you add 5 ppg in regulation to last year's team we go from 16-19 to 23-12, which is the difference between the '07-'08 nightmare and the decent '06-'07 season.
While I may have to resort to smoke signals to follow Thursday's game vs. Vanderbilt, I will be rooting hard for a fun Illini team and hoping for an upset victory!
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Lemme Lemme Upgrade Ya
Hooray! Signing Day has arrived! Illinois signs four outstanding players: DJ Richardson, Brandon Paul, Joseph Bertrand, and Tyler Griffey. I think the first two will play a lot next year and the other two will be key members of the rotation as upperclassmen.
I don't watch HS basketball and I'm not any good at video scouting, etc. So in order to channel my excitement I will engage in rampant speculation as to next year's rotation. I've never seen any of the four signees or Alex Legion in any kind of Illini game action, so I hope any readers will accept that I most likely don't know what I'm doing here. That's never stopped me before, so let's go!
I've already mentioned the five players we are adding to the roster next year (not counting walk-ons), but we will be losing a lot of players. Here is where the title comes in, as you will quickly see how we are getting a massive upgrade at maybe all five spots.
Trent Meacham will be replaced by Brandon Paul
Calvin Brock will be replaced by Joseph Bertrand
Chester Frazier will be replaced by DJ Richardson
CJ Jackson will be replaced by Tyler Griffey
Alex Legion will be eligible.
With that in mind, let me guess at next year's rotation (in a similar format to the previous post):
Starters: (128 mpg combined)
Demetri McCamey - 28 mpg
DJ Richardson - 28 mpg
Alex Legion - 28 mpg
Mike Davis - 24 mpg
Mike Tisdale - 20 mpg
Bench: (72 mpg combined)
Brandon Paul - 24 mpg
Bill Cole - 12 mpg
Richard Semrau - 12 mpg
Dominique Keller - 12 mpg
Stan Simpson - 12 mpg
Not Playing:
Joseph Bertrand (redshirt)
Tyler Griffey (redshirt)
Jeff Jordan (bench)
I have both Bertrand and Griffey redshirting but either one of them could play and contribute. How does it sort by position?
PG (1): McCamey (28), Richardson (12)
SG (2): Richardson (16), Paul (24)
SF (3): Legion (28), Cole (12)
PF (4): Davis (24), Keller (12), Simpson (4)
C (5): Tisdale (20), Semrau (12), Simpson (8)
Now that is an NCAA Tournament team, with quality talent at every position and a deep bench.
(Update to previous post: @Vandy is tape-delayed on FCS-Atlantic and it looks like all the South Padre games will be on that channel as well, assuming we are in the South Padre final.)
I don't watch HS basketball and I'm not any good at video scouting, etc. So in order to channel my excitement I will engage in rampant speculation as to next year's rotation. I've never seen any of the four signees or Alex Legion in any kind of Illini game action, so I hope any readers will accept that I most likely don't know what I'm doing here. That's never stopped me before, so let's go!
I've already mentioned the five players we are adding to the roster next year (not counting walk-ons), but we will be losing a lot of players. Here is where the title comes in, as you will quickly see how we are getting a massive upgrade at maybe all five spots.
Trent Meacham will be replaced by Brandon Paul
Calvin Brock will be replaced by Joseph Bertrand
Chester Frazier will be replaced by DJ Richardson
CJ Jackson will be replaced by Tyler Griffey
Alex Legion will be eligible.
With that in mind, let me guess at next year's rotation (in a similar format to the previous post):
Starters: (128 mpg combined)
Demetri McCamey - 28 mpg
DJ Richardson - 28 mpg
Alex Legion - 28 mpg
Mike Davis - 24 mpg
Mike Tisdale - 20 mpg
Bench: (72 mpg combined)
Brandon Paul - 24 mpg
Bill Cole - 12 mpg
Richard Semrau - 12 mpg
Dominique Keller - 12 mpg
Stan Simpson - 12 mpg
Not Playing:
Joseph Bertrand (redshirt)
Tyler Griffey (redshirt)
Jeff Jordan (bench)
I have both Bertrand and Griffey redshirting but either one of them could play and contribute. How does it sort by position?
PG (1): McCamey (28), Richardson (12)
SG (2): Richardson (16), Paul (24)
SF (3): Legion (28), Cole (12)
PF (4): Davis (24), Keller (12), Simpson (4)
C (5): Tisdale (20), Semrau (12), Simpson (8)
Now that is an NCAA Tournament team, with quality talent at every position and a deep bench.
(Update to previous post: @Vandy is tape-delayed on FCS-Atlantic and it looks like all the South Padre games will be on that channel as well, assuming we are in the South Padre final.)
Monday, November 10, 2008
Illinois Basketball 2008-2009: Month 1 Preview
Illinois basketball has 31 regular season games scheduled. Normally one would divide the season into non-conference and conference games, but given that we are expecting to add Alex Legion on December 20th, I thought it would make more sense to look first at the 10 games we play without him. Here they are:
11/14 vs. Eastern Washington
11/16 vs. Texas A&M - Corpus Christi
11/20 @ Vanderbilt
11/23 vs. Jackson State
11/28 vs. Kent State (South Padre)
11/29 vs. Texas A&M or Tulsa (South Padre)
12/02 vs. Clemson (ACC/Big Ten Challenge)
12/06 vs. Georgia (United Center)
12/08 vs. Hawaii
12/10 vs. Chicago State
I have no idea how we will do against this slate, but it looks like there are five cupcakes and five challenges. The five cupcakes are Eastern Washington, Tex. A&M - CC, Jackson State, Hawaii, and Chicago State -- all home games against weaker teams. The five challenges include one road game, two neutral site games in South Padre, the ACC/B10 challenge, and the United Center game.
There are also some challenges for us loyal viewers. Four games will be easy for me to watch: games against Jackson State and Hawaii are on the BTN, the Georgia game is on ESPNU, and the Clemson game is on ESPN2. The Eastern Washington and Chicago State games are on bigtennetwork.com, which is annoying but at least freely available nationwide. The remaining four are challenges - @Vandy is on FSN Midwest (I don't live in the Midwest!), Kent State is on Fox College Sports (I didn't even know that was a channel), and the broadcasts for the 11/16 and 11/29 games are not yet announced. Given that 11/16 is only six days away, I am concerned that game may not be broadcast at all. So perhaps we won't be seeing much of the Illini without Alex Legion.
Given that I may have to use my imagination a lot in the next month, let me try to imagine a good rotation for the first 10 games. Bear in mind that I have only seen about 1.3 exhibition games (and not the O&B scrimmage), so this is somewhat poorly-educated speculation. What I will do is try to dole out 200 minutes of playing time in 4 minute increments, ignoring garbage time.
Starters: (136 mpg combined)
Demetri McCamey - 32 mpg
Trent Meacham - 28 mpg
Chester Frazier - 32 mpg
Mike Davis - 24 mpg
Mike Tisdale - 20 mpg
Bench: (64 mpg combined)
Calvin Brock - 24 mpg
Richard Semrau - 16 mpg
Dominique Keller - 12 mpg
Jeff Jordan - 8 mpg
Bill Cole - 4 mpg
Not Playing:
Stan Simpson (redshirt)
Alex Legion (ineligible)
C.J. Jackson (bench)
How would this sort by position? Let's assume that McCamey and Jordan are always at the 1 and Tisdale and Semrau are always at the 5. I'm also thinking that Meacham is always a 2 and Keller and Cole are always at the 4. That leaves three hybrid players, with Frazier as a 2/3, Brock as a 3/4, and Davis as a 4/5.
PG (1): McCamey (32), Jordan (8)
SG (2): Meacham (28), Frazier (12)
SF (3): Frazier (20), Brock (20)
PF (4): Davis (20), Keller (12), Brock (4), Cole (4)
C (5): Tisdale (20), Semrau (16), Davis (4)
My hope is that Brock starting at PF was an exhibition gimmick and we don't see him there more than 4 mpg. It made sense for the exhibitions, with an open competition between the big men and more minutes available for Jeff Jordan. In real games though we don't have much guard depth so Brock will need to spend most of his time at the 3. Things could get really crazy if someone gets hurt or in very early foul trouble. I'm trying not to think about that.
I think it is safe to say that Alex Legion will have plenty of playing time available for him immediately once he becomes eligible. There are also plenty of opportunities for next year's freshmen, but that sounds like a topic for Wednesday...
11/14 vs. Eastern Washington
11/16 vs. Texas A&M - Corpus Christi
11/20 @ Vanderbilt
11/23 vs. Jackson State
11/28 vs. Kent State (South Padre)
11/29 vs. Texas A&M or Tulsa (South Padre)
12/02 vs. Clemson (ACC/Big Ten Challenge)
12/06 vs. Georgia (United Center)
12/08 vs. Hawaii
12/10 vs. Chicago State
I have no idea how we will do against this slate, but it looks like there are five cupcakes and five challenges. The five cupcakes are Eastern Washington, Tex. A&M - CC, Jackson State, Hawaii, and Chicago State -- all home games against weaker teams. The five challenges include one road game, two neutral site games in South Padre, the ACC/B10 challenge, and the United Center game.
There are also some challenges for us loyal viewers. Four games will be easy for me to watch: games against Jackson State and Hawaii are on the BTN, the Georgia game is on ESPNU, and the Clemson game is on ESPN2. The Eastern Washington and Chicago State games are on bigtennetwork.com, which is annoying but at least freely available nationwide. The remaining four are challenges - @Vandy is on FSN Midwest (I don't live in the Midwest!), Kent State is on Fox College Sports (I didn't even know that was a channel), and the broadcasts for the 11/16 and 11/29 games are not yet announced. Given that 11/16 is only six days away, I am concerned that game may not be broadcast at all. So perhaps we won't be seeing much of the Illini without Alex Legion.
Given that I may have to use my imagination a lot in the next month, let me try to imagine a good rotation for the first 10 games. Bear in mind that I have only seen about 1.3 exhibition games (and not the O&B scrimmage), so this is somewhat poorly-educated speculation. What I will do is try to dole out 200 minutes of playing time in 4 minute increments, ignoring garbage time.
Starters: (136 mpg combined)
Demetri McCamey - 32 mpg
Trent Meacham - 28 mpg
Chester Frazier - 32 mpg
Mike Davis - 24 mpg
Mike Tisdale - 20 mpg
Bench: (64 mpg combined)
Calvin Brock - 24 mpg
Richard Semrau - 16 mpg
Dominique Keller - 12 mpg
Jeff Jordan - 8 mpg
Bill Cole - 4 mpg
Not Playing:
Stan Simpson (redshirt)
Alex Legion (ineligible)
C.J. Jackson (bench)
How would this sort by position? Let's assume that McCamey and Jordan are always at the 1 and Tisdale and Semrau are always at the 5. I'm also thinking that Meacham is always a 2 and Keller and Cole are always at the 4. That leaves three hybrid players, with Frazier as a 2/3, Brock as a 3/4, and Davis as a 4/5.
PG (1): McCamey (32), Jordan (8)
SG (2): Meacham (28), Frazier (12)
SF (3): Frazier (20), Brock (20)
PF (4): Davis (20), Keller (12), Brock (4), Cole (4)
C (5): Tisdale (20), Semrau (16), Davis (4)
My hope is that Brock starting at PF was an exhibition gimmick and we don't see him there more than 4 mpg. It made sense for the exhibitions, with an open competition between the big men and more minutes available for Jeff Jordan. In real games though we don't have much guard depth so Brock will need to spend most of his time at the 3. Things could get really crazy if someone gets hurt or in very early foul trouble. I'm trying not to think about that.
I think it is safe to say that Alex Legion will have plenty of playing time available for him immediately once he becomes eligible. There are also plenty of opportunities for next year's freshmen, but that sounds like a topic for Wednesday...
Sidebar: A few housekeeping notes
I have been inspired by a user comment to get this blog up and running again. A few things have changed since my last post in April, so let me give some background for the new perspective that you will see in this blog.
*I am now a homeowner. Given that I am still single (but not available...sorry ladies =P), that means that I can put top priority on the viewing of Illini sports events in the comfort of my own home (including on the Big Ten Network).
*On August 1st, Brumby decided to kill the Illiniboard. That IB is now pretty much just a bunch of Weber haters and political malcontents, so my TouchdownRejus posts are going to diminish and my year-long hiatus from the Scout board is over. Kudos to frankfrangie and JackLyman for finally putting together a high-quality operation over there. I also have a membership with Rivals and for my money Brad Sturdy is still the best source of insider basketball info.
*Illinois football has ripped out my heart and stomped on it five times this season. That team is dead to me until further notice, with the notable exception of my man Rejus Benn, who is still a godsend. I also must advocate the immediate resignation of Ron Guenther, as there is no path forward on the basketball renovation/new arena and the football scheduling is killing us.
*I will be pulling for my man Dee Brown on my local Washington Wizards team. They are perhaps the worst team in the NBA right now but I will watch for his sake.
*Jamar Smith, Brian Carlwell, and Rodney Alexander are all no longer members of the Illini basketball team. I wish them well in life but I won't be looking back or pondering any what-ifs with those players this basketball season. I will say that Brian Randle was one of my favorite players and I will miss him.
*Everyone knows that this Illinois basketball team isn't exactly loaded with talent and we are eagerly anticipating the four new players in our solid 2009 recruiting class. Our three recruits in 2010 may be even better and we are back on the upswing. The goal this year is to lay the foundation for the future and to erase the painful memories of 19 losses, awful shooting, poor team chemistry, and embarrassing off-court incidents from the last year. One notable milestone during the season will be the on-court debut of Alex Legion (expected) on December 20th.
*I am going to take that future-oriented approach and thus my theme for basketball this year will be: Illini Basketball: The Foundation. I'm going to try to avoid projecting future wins and losses (unlike what I've done in past seasons) and not stress out over the inevitable ups and downs. I'm also going to avoid the long-standing debate over Weber's job performance. Analysis will focus on younger players, the overall team dynamic, and long-term trends. I will try to be optimistic about our players' potential but I won't drink Kool Aid when it comes to ugly realities on the court.
*Numbers don't lie. I'm much more mathematician than basketball guru. I won't calculate efficiency scores but I will study the box scores and cumulative statistics. I'm also a seasoned observer of sports and try to give unbiased observations without an agenda. I will admit that I am pulling for Rich Semrau and don't fully understand Bill Cole's role on this team. Otherwise I am pretty fair-minded and won't take the intellectually lazy approach and blame everything on Chester Frazier (who is almost never the worst player on the court).
*Illinois basketball season starts on November 14th and I can't wait!
*I am now a homeowner. Given that I am still single (but not available...sorry ladies =P), that means that I can put top priority on the viewing of Illini sports events in the comfort of my own home (including on the Big Ten Network).
*On August 1st, Brumby decided to kill the Illiniboard. That IB is now pretty much just a bunch of Weber haters and political malcontents, so my TouchdownRejus posts are going to diminish and my year-long hiatus from the Scout board is over. Kudos to frankfrangie and JackLyman for finally putting together a high-quality operation over there. I also have a membership with Rivals and for my money Brad Sturdy is still the best source of insider basketball info.
*Illinois football has ripped out my heart and stomped on it five times this season. That team is dead to me until further notice, with the notable exception of my man Rejus Benn, who is still a godsend. I also must advocate the immediate resignation of Ron Guenther, as there is no path forward on the basketball renovation/new arena and the football scheduling is killing us.
*I will be pulling for my man Dee Brown on my local Washington Wizards team. They are perhaps the worst team in the NBA right now but I will watch for his sake.
*Jamar Smith, Brian Carlwell, and Rodney Alexander are all no longer members of the Illini basketball team. I wish them well in life but I won't be looking back or pondering any what-ifs with those players this basketball season. I will say that Brian Randle was one of my favorite players and I will miss him.
*Everyone knows that this Illinois basketball team isn't exactly loaded with talent and we are eagerly anticipating the four new players in our solid 2009 recruiting class. Our three recruits in 2010 may be even better and we are back on the upswing. The goal this year is to lay the foundation for the future and to erase the painful memories of 19 losses, awful shooting, poor team chemistry, and embarrassing off-court incidents from the last year. One notable milestone during the season will be the on-court debut of Alex Legion (expected) on December 20th.
*I am going to take that future-oriented approach and thus my theme for basketball this year will be: Illini Basketball: The Foundation. I'm going to try to avoid projecting future wins and losses (unlike what I've done in past seasons) and not stress out over the inevitable ups and downs. I'm also going to avoid the long-standing debate over Weber's job performance. Analysis will focus on younger players, the overall team dynamic, and long-term trends. I will try to be optimistic about our players' potential but I won't drink Kool Aid when it comes to ugly realities on the court.
*Numbers don't lie. I'm much more mathematician than basketball guru. I won't calculate efficiency scores but I will study the box scores and cumulative statistics. I'm also a seasoned observer of sports and try to give unbiased observations without an agenda. I will admit that I am pulling for Rich Semrau and don't fully understand Bill Cole's role on this team. Otherwise I am pretty fair-minded and won't take the intellectually lazy approach and blame everything on Chester Frazier (who is almost never the worst player on the court).
*Illinois basketball season starts on November 14th and I can't wait!
Illinois-Lewis Exhibition in-game observations:
Live streaming video is much better this week than trying to watch archived video after the game.
*Small lineup not getting nearly enough penetration early. Brock is a nice offensive rebounder though.
*The Semrau-Davis combo is a huge lift. More active defensive presence and they really add a lot of mojo to the motion offense.
*Players seem more decisive this year. I think with there is a greater sense of confidence and purpose. I also like how they seem to react better to Weber's in-game coaching. I really like how when we have a good shot, we take it.
*I'm not sure about the double-team on the perimeter. It's not as bad as last year but it quickly becomes a liability if things break down and the other team gets an unguarded shot.
*I think our rebounding is ok. We get the ones we should get.
*Keller does some odd things. He's not going to be a starter.
*Cold shooting in the first half. Missed 3's and FT's not encouraging.
*We look infinitely better on the fast break this year than last year. It's not 2005 vintage but it actually gets us points instead of turnovers. Hugely encouraging sign.
*One really awful sequence where we don't secure some rebounds and they get a 3.
*Davis should be our starting PF.
*Sudden burst of energy in the second half extends the lead to double digits. I feel like we are doing the right things and if we just execute a little better we will be a solid team.
*Simpson is a good-looking player but they are exploiting him on defense.
*Meacham has to hit the open 3. I will be happy when we can plug in Legion in place of a cold Meacham.
*Disturbing Lewis run as our defense really breaks down.
*Ugly stretch and Davis misses the front end of the one-and-one. I sense that Illinois fans are not going to be happy after this game. Defense has been really weak and Lewis has gotten lots of open shots.
*Frazier and Meacham are absolutely killing us on offense. I want to see how this team responds in a tight game compared to last year.
*McCamey is the right guy to be taking big shots at the end of the game.
*Lewis is not a bad team, so I'm not going to freak out about a 62-56 win. I'm sure others will not be as content.
*Small lineup not getting nearly enough penetration early. Brock is a nice offensive rebounder though.
*The Semrau-Davis combo is a huge lift. More active defensive presence and they really add a lot of mojo to the motion offense.
*Players seem more decisive this year. I think with there is a greater sense of confidence and purpose. I also like how they seem to react better to Weber's in-game coaching. I really like how when we have a good shot, we take it.
*I'm not sure about the double-team on the perimeter. It's not as bad as last year but it quickly becomes a liability if things break down and the other team gets an unguarded shot.
*I think our rebounding is ok. We get the ones we should get.
*Keller does some odd things. He's not going to be a starter.
*Cold shooting in the first half. Missed 3's and FT's not encouraging.
*We look infinitely better on the fast break this year than last year. It's not 2005 vintage but it actually gets us points instead of turnovers. Hugely encouraging sign.
*One really awful sequence where we don't secure some rebounds and they get a 3.
*Davis should be our starting PF.
*Sudden burst of energy in the second half extends the lead to double digits. I feel like we are doing the right things and if we just execute a little better we will be a solid team.
*Simpson is a good-looking player but they are exploiting him on defense.
*Meacham has to hit the open 3. I will be happy when we can plug in Legion in place of a cold Meacham.
*Disturbing Lewis run as our defense really breaks down.
*Ugly stretch and Davis misses the front end of the one-and-one. I sense that Illinois fans are not going to be happy after this game. Defense has been really weak and Lewis has gotten lots of open shots.
*Frazier and Meacham are absolutely killing us on offense. I want to see how this team responds in a tight game compared to last year.
*McCamey is the right guy to be taking big shots at the end of the game.
*Lewis is not a bad team, so I'm not going to freak out about a 62-56 win. I'm sure others will not be as content.
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
Evaluating Illini basketball: 2008-2009
[Reposted from illiniboard]
At this point if we make the NCAA Tournament then the season is clearly a success and Weber will have done a good job. If we're under .500 (barring some outlandish scenario, like a crazed IOS leaping out of the stands with a machete and hacking our players' limbs off) then the season is a failure and Weber should go. For a 33 game regular season, clear success would likely be 22-11 or better and clear failure would be 16-17 or worse.
I'd put the over/under for next season at 20 wins, so it is likely that we'll end up somewhere in between success and failure. I then think that it won't come down to purely the W-L record, but the feel of how the team is responding to the coaches and if we are on track for success with young guys getting experience and more talented recruits arriving in 2009.
I think Weber did a better coaching job in the 23-12 season than in the 26-7 season before that (which had bad losses to PSU and Washington), but he didn't have as much talent in '06-'07 as the prior year. With recruiting on track, the talent level should be solid starting in November 2009 (and should maintain itself for at least 4 seasons).
What is in question is if Weber is the guy to get enough out of that talent. For most of his first 4 seasons, it looked clear that he was coaching well but recruiting horribly. Last season we had a strange reversal where he recruited well but coached horribly. (I'm not sure anyone saw that coming 12 months ago today.) Some will argue that it proves that he can't recruit and he can't coach, and others will argue the exact opposite. Next season should clear things up a bit.
At this point if we make the NCAA Tournament then the season is clearly a success and Weber will have done a good job. If we're under .500 (barring some outlandish scenario, like a crazed IOS leaping out of the stands with a machete and hacking our players' limbs off) then the season is a failure and Weber should go. For a 33 game regular season, clear success would likely be 22-11 or better and clear failure would be 16-17 or worse.
I'd put the over/under for next season at 20 wins, so it is likely that we'll end up somewhere in between success and failure. I then think that it won't come down to purely the W-L record, but the feel of how the team is responding to the coaches and if we are on track for success with young guys getting experience and more talented recruits arriving in 2009.
I think Weber did a better coaching job in the 23-12 season than in the 26-7 season before that (which had bad losses to PSU and Washington), but he didn't have as much talent in '06-'07 as the prior year. With recruiting on track, the talent level should be solid starting in November 2009 (and should maintain itself for at least 4 seasons).
What is in question is if Weber is the guy to get enough out of that talent. For most of his first 4 seasons, it looked clear that he was coaching well but recruiting horribly. Last season we had a strange reversal where he recruited well but coached horribly. (I'm not sure anyone saw that coming 12 months ago today.) Some will argue that it proves that he can't recruit and he can't coach, and others will argue the exact opposite. Next season should clear things up a bit.
Wednesday, January 23, 2008
'07-'08 Illini stats trivia
10 questions. It's more fun if you don't look up the answers.
1. Who leads the Illini in 3PT%?
2. How many different Illini players have started a game this year?
3. Which Illini player has the most field goal attempts?
4. Chester Frazier leads the team in minutes played. Who is 2nd?
5. Which two Illini players have not scored a point so far this season?
6. How many times have the Illini scored exactly 58 points in a game?
7. Our season-high 79 points came against what team?
8. Do we score more in the first or second half? How about our opponents?
9. Which Illini guard has the best A/TO ratio in Big Ten play?
10. Which Illini player gets the most rebounds per minute?
Answers:
1. Calvin Brock is the leader at 50%, with Meacham in 2nd at 39.4%
2. 8 - (Pruitt, Randle, Brock, Meacham, Frazier, Alexander, McCamey, Tisdale)
3. Pruitt has 178 FGA to Randle's 177.
4. Trent Meacham is 2nd in minutes with 539. Pruitt has 512 and Randle has 511.
5. Semrau and Carlwell. I'm not counting Jamar Smith or Alex Legion.
6. 6 times, against Western Carolina, Miami (OH), Tenn. St., Indiana, and twice against Ohio State.
7. Hawaii. We got 78 against Weber State and 77 against AZ St. and Loyola (MD)
8. We score more in the 2nd half (666 to 628) but so do our opponents (663 to 559).
9. Chester Frazier (2.3) over McCamey (1.7). Tisdale has a 3.0 A/TO ratio though.
10. Pruitt gets .293 rebounds/minute, and nobody else on the team is close.
1. Who leads the Illini in 3PT%?
2. How many different Illini players have started a game this year?
3. Which Illini player has the most field goal attempts?
4. Chester Frazier leads the team in minutes played. Who is 2nd?
5. Which two Illini players have not scored a point so far this season?
6. How many times have the Illini scored exactly 58 points in a game?
7. Our season-high 79 points came against what team?
8. Do we score more in the first or second half? How about our opponents?
9. Which Illini guard has the best A/TO ratio in Big Ten play?
10. Which Illini player gets the most rebounds per minute?
Answers:
1. Calvin Brock is the leader at 50%, with Meacham in 2nd at 39.4%
2. 8 - (Pruitt, Randle, Brock, Meacham, Frazier, Alexander, McCamey, Tisdale)
3. Pruitt has 178 FGA to Randle's 177.
4. Trent Meacham is 2nd in minutes with 539. Pruitt has 512 and Randle has 511.
5. Semrau and Carlwell. I'm not counting Jamar Smith or Alex Legion.
6. 6 times, against Western Carolina, Miami (OH), Tenn. St., Indiana, and twice against Ohio State.
7. Hawaii. We got 78 against Weber State and 77 against AZ St. and Loyola (MD)
8. We score more in the 2nd half (666 to 628) but so do our opponents (663 to 559).
9. Chester Frazier (2.3) over McCamey (1.7). Tisdale has a 3.0 A/TO ratio though.
10. Pruitt gets .293 rebounds/minute, and nobody else on the team is close.
Friday, January 18, 2008
Launching the NIT Quest
It has been a tough year for Illini basketball fans, and we find ourselves sitting at 9-9 (1-4) heading into this weekend's road game against Purdue. A reasonable goal for this team will be to make the NIT. I have concluded that it will take 18 wins (including the Big Ten Tournament) to earn an NIT bid. We'll keep it that simple for now. 9 wins down, 9 wins to go. Here's a look at our remaining 13 regular season games, with a nod to Ken Pomeroy's ratings.
3 Expected Losses (<30% chance of victory)
@Ohio St
@Michigan St
vs. Wisconsin
4 Expected Wins (>70% chance of victory)
vs. Northwestern
vs. Purdue
@Michigan
@Iowa
6 Swing Games (30-70% chance of victory)
@Purdue
vs. Indiana
@Minnesota
@Penn State
vs. Michigan State
vs. Minnesota
I expect one win in the Big Ten Tournament, so we need to win all 4 Expected Wins and 4 of the 6 Swing Games. If we can't do that, our only hope is to get extra wins in the Big Ten Tournament or to pull of a shocking victory instead of one of the Expected Losses.
The team has been playing better lately, so let's hope that continues because the way things look right now there isn't an easy road to even make the NIT.
3 Expected Losses (<30% chance of victory)
@Ohio St
@Michigan St
vs. Wisconsin
4 Expected Wins (>70% chance of victory)
vs. Northwestern
vs. Purdue
@Michigan
@Iowa
6 Swing Games (30-70% chance of victory)
@Purdue
vs. Indiana
@Minnesota
@Penn State
vs. Michigan State
vs. Minnesota
I expect one win in the Big Ten Tournament, so we need to win all 4 Expected Wins and 4 of the 6 Swing Games. If we can't do that, our only hope is to get extra wins in the Big Ten Tournament or to pull of a shocking victory instead of one of the Expected Losses.
The team has been playing better lately, so let's hope that continues because the way things look right now there isn't an easy road to even make the NIT.
Saturday, January 12, 2008
Illini basketball recruiting recap
It's been way too long since I've posted here, so it might be interesting to look at some older posts of mine and see how they turned out.
First, let's look at "The Seven" 2008-2010 recruits that would get us back in the national championship hunt.
1. DJ Richardson. Indeed, he was the ringleader and the first recruit of the seven. So that went as planned.
2. DeAndre McCamey --> Brandon Paul. Another guard and someone we (the fans) totally didn't have on the radar until the summer before he committed. He's very good and a year earlier but maybe not the pure PG we were expecting.
3. Crandall Head. As expected, Luther's younger brother committed to Illinois. What wasn't expected was him becoming an elite prospect before committing.
4. Scott Suggs --> Alex Legion. Legion probably has a little more talent but a little less size. I expect him to play the SG/SF spot for us and he makes for a nice recovery after all the '08 misses.
5. Michael Dunigan --> Stan Simpson. We missed on Dunigan, an amazing defender, but picked up the next best thing and a guy who has more explosion and offensive potential.
6. Jordan Prosser/Tyler Griffey --> ??? Griffey is still on the radar and other prospects are emerging in '09 or '10 to take the big man spot. We'll see.
7. Wild card --> Joe Bertrand. The tastefully named "point forward" adds to a bit of a logjam on the wing, but he is part of a dynamic trio that could lead an Illini resurgence.
Overall, recruiting remains unpredictable with only 2 of the 6 recruits anticipated in my previous post. Finally we've had enough recruiting success to actually live up to one of my optimistic posts. It's very encouraging and the only joy around Illini basketball right now. Let's get one more big and we'll be set on the recruiting trail for a while. Well, there's always the critical '11 class ;-)
First, let's look at "The Seven" 2008-2010 recruits that would get us back in the national championship hunt.
1. DJ Richardson. Indeed, he was the ringleader and the first recruit of the seven. So that went as planned.
2. DeAndre McCamey --> Brandon Paul. Another guard and someone we (the fans) totally didn't have on the radar until the summer before he committed. He's very good and a year earlier but maybe not the pure PG we were expecting.
3. Crandall Head. As expected, Luther's younger brother committed to Illinois. What wasn't expected was him becoming an elite prospect before committing.
4. Scott Suggs --> Alex Legion. Legion probably has a little more talent but a little less size. I expect him to play the SG/SF spot for us and he makes for a nice recovery after all the '08 misses.
5. Michael Dunigan --> Stan Simpson. We missed on Dunigan, an amazing defender, but picked up the next best thing and a guy who has more explosion and offensive potential.
6. Jordan Prosser/Tyler Griffey --> ??? Griffey is still on the radar and other prospects are emerging in '09 or '10 to take the big man spot. We'll see.
7. Wild card --> Joe Bertrand. The tastefully named "point forward" adds to a bit of a logjam on the wing, but he is part of a dynamic trio that could lead an Illini resurgence.
Overall, recruiting remains unpredictable with only 2 of the 6 recruits anticipated in my previous post. Finally we've had enough recruiting success to actually live up to one of my optimistic posts. It's very encouraging and the only joy around Illini basketball right now. Let's get one more big and we'll be set on the recruiting trail for a while. Well, there's always the critical '11 class ;-)
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