Box Score Breakdown - First 2 Games

If you are like me, chances are you missed some or all of the online feeds for the first two Illini games so you only have a few postgame reports and two box scores to look at after two games. The TV situation for the Vanderbilt game is even worse (FSN Midwest isn't exactly a national cable network). So while we may not be 100% sure what Dominique Keller or Bubba Chisholm looks like, we do know that the Illini are 2-0 and that stats are available on fightingillini.com. So let's see what has happened through two games.

Minutes per game:
Since I posted a guess at the early rotation, let's see where there are significant deviations (>4 mpg) from what I expected. It turns out there are only two, and they are related:
Jeff Jordan (15.5 mpg, 8 mpg expected) and Calvin Brock (15.5 mpg, 24 mpg expected). Although MJ in the house didn't hurt JJ's minutes, I suspect that the real story here is the lack of impact Brock is having on the game. He is known for inconsistent effort, and 1-8 shooting is not going to cut it from him. Jeff Jordan is no chump, and I expect that Coach Weber will reward him with starts and minutes whenever one of the other guards does not live up to his high standards. Otherwise things are about as expected in terms of minutes. It is interesting to see Brock starting in place of McCamey, but I suspect that is to motivate Demetri to live up to his potential.

FG%
Trent Meacham is shooting over 61%, which is excellent for a guard. He may be the top performer so far. Mike Davis is also solid at 60% which means he is efficient at the PF spot. We are getting horrible shooting from our centers, which is a real problem. Tisdale is shooting 29% and Semrau is even worse at 20%. These wouldn't be acceptable numbers if they were Frazier's 3PT%, but coming from centers they are atrocious. This should be more like 60%. Unless this improves quickly, I'd expect to see a lot more of Davis at center with Keller or Cole at PF. Maybe you even play Stan Simpson if you get desperate. The team is shooting 44% (an okay number), which means that at least the right people are taking most of the shots.

3PT%
Meacham and McCamey each have 9 3FGA, Frazier has 4, and nobody else has more than 1. That is very good to see, as lazy or desperate long-range chucking from non-shooters could easily sink this team (especially since they aren't making any). McCamey is shooting 33% from 3 (a reasonable number for 9 attempts) and Meacham is scorching at 67%. He pulls our team average up to 39%, which is solid.

FT%
Free throws were the bane of the '07-'08 Illini's existence, and they shot a miserable 60.8%, with no player above 75% from the line. That was absurd, and with so many close games (and missed front ends of 1-and-1's) it added up to several agonizing defeats. Pruitt and Randle were the main offenders here, so improvement was expected this season. So far we are shooting a healthy 70% from the line, which is a healthy improvement. Our top 9 players are shooting a combined 74%, which is even more encouraging. Perhaps the most amazing stat is that Chester Frazier is on pace to make 64 free throws this year, as opposed to only 27 last year. That one sentence should give all Illini fans hope for the season.

Rebounds
The Illini are outrebounding their opponents 81-65 (8 rpg). Our front line (Tisdale, Semrau, Davis, Keller) are averaging the following #'s of rebounds per 40 minutes:
Tisdale - 9
Semrau - 13.3
Davis - 14.3
Keller - 14

Compare those numbers to our top 4 rotation rebounders last year:
Pruitt - 10.8
Randle - 8.7
Alexander - 8.5
Davis - 6.9

A few observations from this data:

*Frazier doesn't really rebound at a higher rate than the bigs. It is just that he rebounds well for a guard and plays so many more minutes per game than most of the bigs. He is not in the top 4 in terms of rebounds per 40 minutes in either season.

*We lost our top 3 rebounders from last season, so it was fair to wonder if we could rebound effectively this year.

*Our rebounding numbers are far superior so far this season, but it is tough to compare given that so far we've only had 2 games against low-major teams without much of an inside presence.

*Davis is a good rebounder -- better than Tisdale. I suspect Tisdale's rebounding struggles are what made most people question our rebounding ability for the season. Both Keller and Semrau are new to the rotation this year and appear to be solid rebounders. Tisdale is the only real weak link here, but he only gets 20 mpg so I think any softness on his part will be compensated for by Frazier's rebounding. Expect us to be just fine on the boards this year.

Fouls:
No Illini player has more than 6 fouls through 2 games. That suggests that foul trouble will not be a major factor this year, which is certainly encouraging. Usually this is only a big concern when you have a dominant big man (seniors like Brian Cook or Robert Archibald) or if you are starting Brian Randle on your team.

I'm not Brumby or Bruce Weber, so I won't try to analyze pace or defense. I imagine both will be similar to last season, although it will be interesting to see how our interior defense performs with less bulk but more shot-blocking.

After this analysis, I'd say there are three keys to the Vanderbilt game, and they are all related and have to do with shooting.

*The right players have to take the shots. Mike Davis needs a steady diet of mid-range shots and Meacham and McCamey should be the only 3-point shooters. Everyone else should be trying to attack the rim and get to the line.

*Either Meacham or McCamey to be hot from 3. I'm talking >50% and at least 5 attempts. Otherwise we likely don't break 60.

*We need improved production from the center position. Tisdale and Semrau average 34 minutes, 11 shots, and 4 FTA combined. Given that, we need them to total 13-14 or more points (instead of their lame 8.5 combined average). To give you an idea of the importance of 5 points, if you add 5 ppg in regulation to last year's team we go from 16-19 to 23-12, which is the difference between the '07-'08 nightmare and the decent '06-'07 season.

While I may have to resort to smoke signals to follow Thursday's game vs. Vanderbilt, I will be rooting hard for a fun Illini team and hoping for an upset victory!