Huge win over MSU yesterday, as that was one of the swing games. Now that we have a few quality wins people might believe that we're an NCAA Tournament team. Our RPI improved to 42, closer to being off the bubble (RPI 40-50). I feel comfortable asserting that Illinois will beat any team with a >125 RPI on the road and a >50 RPI at AH. I'm also sad to say that I expect Illinois to lose to any team with a <20 RPI at AH and a <75 RPI on the road. That gives us 4 automatic wins (Minnesota (177), @NW (128), NW (128), @PSU (184)) and 1 automatic loss (@Indiana (19)) in the remaining schedule and puts us at 8-6 in the Big Ten. That leaves 2 "swing" games:
2/21 Michigan (45)
3/3 @Iowa (115)
I think we are looking at 9-7 or 10-6 in the Big Ten and we'll be on the good side of the bubble with a chance to ice things in the Big Ten Tournament. Now is the time to get on a roll with Minnesota coming to town. We have to be consistent and win the games we're supposed to win.
Wednesday, January 31, 2007
Sunday, January 28, 2007
1/28 NCAA Quest Update
We lost to Purdue. The way we lost was upsetting but it doesn't hurt us much in the big picture as long as we can deliver in the "win" and "swing" games. Our RPI again is 46, leaving us on the bubble (RPI 40-50). I feel comfortable asserting that Illinois will beat any team with a >125 RPI on the road and a >50 RPI at AH. I'm also sad to say that I expect Illinois to lose to any team with a <20 RPI at AH and a <75 RPI (downgraded after the ugly Purdue road loss) on the road. That gives us 4 automatic wins (Minnesota (174), @NW (133), NW (133), @PSU (183)) and 1 automatic loss (@Indiana (21)) in the remaining schedule and puts us at 7-6 in the Big Ten. That leaves 3 "swing" games:
1/30 MSU (RPI 28)
2/21 Michigan (44)
3/3 @Iowa (112)
I think we are looking at 9-7 or 10-6 in the Big Ten and we'll be on the good side of the bubble with a chance to ice things in the Big Ten Tournament. We need to get healthy and generate some scoring if we want to roll off a string of wins. This is a scary time as the schedule is easier but we can't afford any slip-ups.
1/30 MSU (RPI 28)
2/21 Michigan (44)
3/3 @Iowa (112)
I think we are looking at 9-7 or 10-6 in the Big Ten and we'll be on the good side of the bubble with a chance to ice things in the Big Ten Tournament. We need to get healthy and generate some scoring if we want to roll off a string of wins. This is a scary time as the schedule is easier but we can't afford any slip-ups.
Wednesday, January 24, 2007
1/24 NCAA Quest Update
We got a big (and unexpected, given our past performances) win against Indiana last night that gives our NCAA Quest a big boost. Our RPI has risen to 46, leaving us on the bubble (RPI 40-50). I feel comfortable asserting that Illinois will beat any team with a >125 RPI on the road and a >50 RPI at AH. I'm also sad to say that I expect Illinois to lose to any team with a <20 RPI at AH (revised from <25 after last night's performance) and a <50 RPI on the road. That gives us 3 automatic wins (Minnesota (184), NW (125), @PSU (159)) and 2 automatic losses (@Purdue (48), @Indiana (22)) in the remaining schedule and puts us at 6-6 in the Big Ten. That leaves 4 "swing" games:
1/30 MSU (RPI 27)
2/7 @NW (125)
2/21 Michigan (39)
3/3 @Iowa (114)
I think we are looking at 9-7 or 10-6 in the Big Ten and we'll be on the good side of the bubble with a chance to ice things in the Big Ten Tournament. If this team keeps improving and can somehow steal an unlikely win @Purdue then we will really be in business.
1/30 MSU (RPI 27)
2/7 @NW (125)
2/21 Michigan (39)
3/3 @Iowa (114)
I think we are looking at 9-7 or 10-6 in the Big Ten and we'll be on the good side of the bubble with a chance to ice things in the Big Ten Tournament. If this team keeps improving and can somehow steal an unlikely win @Purdue then we will really be in business.
Tuesday, January 23, 2007
Apology to Bruce Weber
I think a lot of people have been unfairly venting their frustration with recent events at Bruce Weber. We all want to win every game and land all the best recruits, none more than Weber himself.
Undoubtedly, our program has faced a lot of adversity, especially in the last 4 months. Every starter has been injured and/or missed time this season (just consider the number of different starting lineups we've needed). We've been victimized by an unprecedented welching of a verbal commitment from a top recruit to a conference rival. Top talent from Illinois goes elsewhere amid public accusations of cheating (unproven, yes) that meshes with every bit of smoke from the sport's corrupt underbelly.
Exacerbating the situation are the actions of our former coach who goes out of his way to contact our recruits and to negatively recruit against us. Furthermore, it is clear that from the very beginning there have been cronies of the former coach who do nothing but promote an anti-Weber agenda. [It's not "realism" or "venting." These people have obvious harmful agendas.]
How does Weber respond to adversity? He works even harder, makes adjustments, yet stays true to his core values. Weber is universally acknowledged as one of the hardest-working recruiters in all of the country (this is much different from the Ron Turner scenario). We've seen a new recruiting approach that has succeeded in raising the level of our recruiting success (see the last 3 verbal commitments). We've seen zone defense from someone who was 100% man-to-man for decades. We've seen honesty and integrity in recruiting without even a hint of trouble from the NCAA.
Weber is universally lauded as a great coach and teacher by college basketball experts. When the time came to cash in on the greatest success in the program's history, he didn't shop himself to "elite" programs to try and cash out. He reinvested some of the money that could have lined his pockets back into the program to improve our facilities and assistant coach salaries. He has remained loyal and rebuilt the notion of the Illini family.
How have we treated this man? He's being condemned based on fantasies. Fantasies. People have dreams of "eliteness," national championships, and recruiting successes that have no basis in historical reality. We nearly did the unthinkable in 2004-2005 under Weber and now he has become a victim of his own success. Bitterness from the departure of our previous coach and fear from the collapse of our football program (along with some bizarre local sports psychology) have warped our perceptions of Bruce Weber.
We are staring at the ugly prospect of a home loss to our most hated rival and a strong chance of missing the NCAA Tournament. Nobody is "merry" about this. We're pissed off. We're also staring at the even uglier prospect of running a coach out of town (by April 2008) who has done nothing to deserve such a fate. Our insane fanbase has never been fair to Bruce Weber and it reflects very poorly on us. I've met Bruce Weber and he is a good man and a great coach who does not deserve the heat he is getting from his "fans." I'm an irrationally obsessed Illini fan I consider myself part of the problem. That's why I apologize to Bruce Weber.
Good luck to Bruce and the Illini tonight against the Hoosiers.
Undoubtedly, our program has faced a lot of adversity, especially in the last 4 months. Every starter has been injured and/or missed time this season (just consider the number of different starting lineups we've needed). We've been victimized by an unprecedented welching of a verbal commitment from a top recruit to a conference rival. Top talent from Illinois goes elsewhere amid public accusations of cheating (unproven, yes) that meshes with every bit of smoke from the sport's corrupt underbelly.
Exacerbating the situation are the actions of our former coach who goes out of his way to contact our recruits and to negatively recruit against us. Furthermore, it is clear that from the very beginning there have been cronies of the former coach who do nothing but promote an anti-Weber agenda. [It's not "realism" or "venting." These people have obvious harmful agendas.]
How does Weber respond to adversity? He works even harder, makes adjustments, yet stays true to his core values. Weber is universally acknowledged as one of the hardest-working recruiters in all of the country (this is much different from the Ron Turner scenario). We've seen a new recruiting approach that has succeeded in raising the level of our recruiting success (see the last 3 verbal commitments). We've seen zone defense from someone who was 100% man-to-man for decades. We've seen honesty and integrity in recruiting without even a hint of trouble from the NCAA.
Weber is universally lauded as a great coach and teacher by college basketball experts. When the time came to cash in on the greatest success in the program's history, he didn't shop himself to "elite" programs to try and cash out. He reinvested some of the money that could have lined his pockets back into the program to improve our facilities and assistant coach salaries. He has remained loyal and rebuilt the notion of the Illini family.
How have we treated this man? He's being condemned based on fantasies. Fantasies. People have dreams of "eliteness," national championships, and recruiting successes that have no basis in historical reality. We nearly did the unthinkable in 2004-2005 under Weber and now he has become a victim of his own success. Bitterness from the departure of our previous coach and fear from the collapse of our football program (along with some bizarre local sports psychology) have warped our perceptions of Bruce Weber.
We are staring at the ugly prospect of a home loss to our most hated rival and a strong chance of missing the NCAA Tournament. Nobody is "merry" about this. We're pissed off. We're also staring at the even uglier prospect of running a coach out of town (by April 2008) who has done nothing to deserve such a fate. Our insane fanbase has never been fair to Bruce Weber and it reflects very poorly on us. I've met Bruce Weber and he is a good man and a great coach who does not deserve the heat he is getting from his "fans." I'm an irrationally obsessed Illini fan I consider myself part of the problem. That's why I apologize to Bruce Weber.
Good luck to Bruce and the Illini tonight against the Hoosiers.
Monday, January 22, 2007
1/22 NCAA Quest Update
We lost to Wisconsin on Saturday (as expected, although we put up a fight). Our RPI has dropped to 48, leaving us on the bubble (RPI 40-50). I feel comfortable asserting that Illinois will beat any team with a >125 RPI on the road (changed from >150 after further review) and a >50 RPI at AH. I'm also sad to say that I expect Illinois to lose to any team with a <25 RPI at AH and a <50 RPI on the road. That gives us 4 automatic wins (Minnesota (187), @Northwestern (126), Northwestern (126), @PSU (158)) and 3 automatic losses (Indiana (16), @Purdue (46), @Indiana (16)) in the remaining schedule and puts us at 6-7 in the Big Ten. That leaves 3 "swing" games:
1/30 MSU (RPI 27)
2/21 Michigan (38)
3/3 @Iowa (114)
Frankly, I am sick of all the losing and we need to beat Indiana on Tuesday regardless of their RPI. This team has been too predictable and it's time to break the mold. Otherwise we are 9-7 at best with the NIT looming.
1/30 MSU (RPI 27)
2/21 Michigan (38)
3/3 @Iowa (114)
Frankly, I am sick of all the losing and we need to beat Indiana on Tuesday regardless of their RPI. This team has been too predictable and it's time to break the mold. Otherwise we are 9-7 at best with the NIT looming.
Saturday, January 20, 2007
Blisterfoot - Oh! Injury
There's a fracture in a left hand,
Time for practice we're undermanned,
From the blistered foot to the groin strain.
Have some surgery and a lot of pain.
In the Freak's groin, there's some stiff scar,
Richard Semrau, an infected core,
Lose three games what's the headline,
Keep recruiting 'til the letter's signed.
Oh! Injury,
Why can't we seem to keep it together?
Sampson's the enemy,
Why can't we seem to keep it together?
In the backcourt of the Illini,
There's a thin man with ankles fried,
Air the threeball till his head's right,
Keep him slumping 'til the next night.
Oh! Injury,
Why can't we seem to keep it together?
Sampson's the enemy,
Why can't we seem to keep it together?
Why this tragedy?
Why can't we seem to keep it together?
Oh! Injury,
Why can't we seem to keep it together?
In the fallout, the fallout,
We found out - the hype won't get you through.
We're defective, defective...
I meant it - the hype won't get you through.
(Through!)
Oh! Injury,
Why can't we seem to keep it together?
Oh! Injury,
Why can't we seem to keep it together?
Why this tragedy?
Why can't we seem to keep it together?
Oh! Injury,
Why can't we seem to keep it together, now?
Let's put it together.
Time for practice we're undermanned,
From the blistered foot to the groin strain.
Have some surgery and a lot of pain.
In the Freak's groin, there's some stiff scar,
Richard Semrau, an infected core,
Lose three games what's the headline,
Keep recruiting 'til the letter's signed.
Oh! Injury,
Why can't we seem to keep it together?
Sampson's the enemy,
Why can't we seem to keep it together?
In the backcourt of the Illini,
There's a thin man with ankles fried,
Air the threeball till his head's right,
Keep him slumping 'til the next night.
Oh! Injury,
Why can't we seem to keep it together?
Sampson's the enemy,
Why can't we seem to keep it together?
Why this tragedy?
Why can't we seem to keep it together?
Oh! Injury,
Why can't we seem to keep it together?
In the fallout, the fallout,
We found out - the hype won't get you through.
We're defective, defective...
I meant it - the hype won't get you through.
(Through!)
Oh! Injury,
Why can't we seem to keep it together?
Oh! Injury,
Why can't we seem to keep it together?
Why this tragedy?
Why can't we seem to keep it together?
Oh! Injury,
Why can't we seem to keep it together, now?
Let's put it together.
Thursday, January 18, 2007
1/18 NCAA Quest Update
So, Illinois took care of Minnesota on the road, as expected. According to Ken Pomeroy, Illinois has an RPI of 41. I think we'll get in if (but not only if) our RPI is 40 or better, so we're a bubble team right now. I feel comfortable asserting that Illinois will beat any team with a >125 RPI on the road (changed from >150 after further review) and a >50 RPI at AH. I'm also sad to say that I expect Illinois to lose to any team with a <25 RPI at AH and a <50 RPI on the road. That gives us 5 automatic wins (Minnesota (173), @Northwestern (152), Northwestern (152), Michigan (52), @PSU (157)) and 4 automatic losses (Wisc (6), Indiana (21), @Purdue (42), @Indiana (21)) in the remaining schedule and puts us at 7-7 in the Big Ten. That leaves 2 "swing" games:
1/30 MSU (RPI 25)
3/3 @Iowa (115)
Right now we look and feel like a bubble team, which is what the numbers suggest. 9-7 may get us in with a BTT win but our next 2 games at home are great chances to play our best game of the year and steal a big win. That would be huge.
1/30 MSU (RPI 25)
3/3 @Iowa (115)
Right now we look and feel like a bubble team, which is what the numbers suggest. 9-7 may get us in with a BTT win but our next 2 games at home are great chances to play our best game of the year and steal a big win. That would be huge.
Illinois/Minnesota In-game Observations
1st half, 20:00-16:00
-nice to see initial emphasis on the inside game
-we should be able to work the offensive glass all night
-Illinois -6.5 looking like a steal
-expecting a lot of zone from Minnesota to force long shots
-no need to double team tonight
-Pruitt better not be hurt
-Arnold should be fine tonight
-it's fun to go up 13-0
1st half, 16:00-12:00
-I don't fear the barn
-darn, they scored
-never saw any of our injured players leading like Tollackson
-bogus OB call against Frazier
-good to see Pruitt back in the game
-why aren't we drawing any fouls on offense?
-we should be pulling away now...I don't like it
1st half, 12:00-8:00
-we have no fast break
-2 fouls on Randle = not good
-where has the scoring gone?
-we are slowly losing our edge
-Pruitt poor passing out of the triple team
-disgusted at how we let them back in this game
-we can't screen to save our lives
-Carlwell has nice hands/intangibles
1st half, 8:00-4:00
-hooray for Tim Brewster
-10-0 run really calms the nerves
-I wonder if one of our assistants will coach at Minnesota next year
-Carter looks really smooth tonight
-McBride really picking his spots well
1st half, 4:00-0:00
-fast break!
-we don't finish halves well
-vicious blocks from Minnesota
-effort was ok there, just got blocked
2nd half, 20:00-16:00
-Pruitt in foul trouble again
-Randle seemed energized by the dunk
-I think we've got this game
2nd half, 16:00-12:00
-it's weird that our team has to think for a half-second before they really exert themselves or rally around teammates
-someone owns us off the dribble every game
-Minnesota is a lousy team and it's nice to have this big lead
-FT shooting tonight is pretty lousy
-Pruitt exceeded his range
-Brock has great instincts around the basket
-glad Frazier didn't go flying off the court there
2nd half, 12:00-8:00
-McBride is hot tonight
-McBride also starting to be more of a vocal leader
-Frazier doesn't have it tonight
-I want more dunks
-Minnesota clawing back into the game
-I feel bad for Arnold, especially with the mask, but he wasn't fouled there
2nd half, 8:00-4:00
-wrong Erin on the sidelines tonight
-Randle set a nice screen on Meacham (doh!)
-we've stalled on offense again
-still nothing from Jamar
-Minnesota is back in this game
-not sure I agree with the call against Meacham
-I do agree with the offensive foul, counting the bucket
-tough call against Randle
2nd half, 4:00-0:00
-Illinois is not getting any easy buckets against the press
-I like seeing McBride take it to the hoop but he's not too good at it yet
-Randle only showed up for about 5 minutes tonight
-Pruitt with a little revenge
-really feels good to get a road win and another Big Ten win
-zzz
-nice to see initial emphasis on the inside game
-we should be able to work the offensive glass all night
-Illinois -6.5 looking like a steal
-expecting a lot of zone from Minnesota to force long shots
-no need to double team tonight
-Pruitt better not be hurt
-Arnold should be fine tonight
-it's fun to go up 13-0
1st half, 16:00-12:00
-I don't fear the barn
-darn, they scored
-never saw any of our injured players leading like Tollackson
-bogus OB call against Frazier
-good to see Pruitt back in the game
-why aren't we drawing any fouls on offense?
-we should be pulling away now...I don't like it
1st half, 12:00-8:00
-we have no fast break
-2 fouls on Randle = not good
-where has the scoring gone?
-we are slowly losing our edge
-Pruitt poor passing out of the triple team
-disgusted at how we let them back in this game
-we can't screen to save our lives
-Carlwell has nice hands/intangibles
1st half, 8:00-4:00
-hooray for Tim Brewster
-10-0 run really calms the nerves
-I wonder if one of our assistants will coach at Minnesota next year
-Carter looks really smooth tonight
-McBride really picking his spots well
1st half, 4:00-0:00
-fast break!
-we don't finish halves well
-vicious blocks from Minnesota
-effort was ok there, just got blocked
2nd half, 20:00-16:00
-Pruitt in foul trouble again
-Randle seemed energized by the dunk
-I think we've got this game
2nd half, 16:00-12:00
-it's weird that our team has to think for a half-second before they really exert themselves or rally around teammates
-someone owns us off the dribble every game
-Minnesota is a lousy team and it's nice to have this big lead
-FT shooting tonight is pretty lousy
-Pruitt exceeded his range
-Brock has great instincts around the basket
-glad Frazier didn't go flying off the court there
2nd half, 12:00-8:00
-McBride is hot tonight
-McBride also starting to be more of a vocal leader
-Frazier doesn't have it tonight
-I want more dunks
-Minnesota clawing back into the game
-I feel bad for Arnold, especially with the mask, but he wasn't fouled there
2nd half, 8:00-4:00
-wrong Erin on the sidelines tonight
-Randle set a nice screen on Meacham (doh!)
-we've stalled on offense again
-still nothing from Jamar
-Minnesota is back in this game
-not sure I agree with the call against Meacham
-I do agree with the offensive foul, counting the bucket
-tough call against Randle
2nd half, 4:00-0:00
-Illinois is not getting any easy buckets against the press
-I like seeing McBride take it to the hoop but he's not too good at it yet
-Randle only showed up for about 5 minutes tonight
-Pruitt with a little revenge
-really feels good to get a road win and another Big Ten win
-zzz
Tuesday, January 16, 2007
Recruit, Recruit, Recruit, Recruit!!!!
After losing 4 of their last 5 games, many Illini fans have resigned themselves to a berth in the NIT and given up on this team. I still have hope for the NCAA Tournament, but I'm not sure I can convince anyone else of that at this juncture. So, how do we fix things in the House of 'Paign? In the words of Ron Zook, "Recruit, Recruit, Recruit, Recruit!!!!"
In this deep thought we flash ahead to the 2010-2011 season. Thankfully, all of the NITwits on our current roster will be long gone then. Well, Richard Semrau will still be here, but we were undefeated this year with him in the lineup so he (like Coach K one year in the '90s) doesn't have this held against him on his permanent record.
Here is the scholarship situation for 2007-2010
2007: 5 (4 taken)
2008: 2 (0 taken)
2009: 3 (0 taken)
2010: 2 (1 taken)
Now we get to the good part, where I fill in the rest of the roster using some wishful thinking and some high-quality insight gained from lurking over at Rivals. (illini32 has all the best info and I encourage everyone to subscribe there and get in the know).
I now present to you the lineup for the 2011 National Champion Fighting Illini
STARTERS:
PG: Demetri McCamey (SR)
SG: DJ Richardson (SO)
SF: Jereme Richmond (FR)
PF: Richard Semrau (RS-SR)
C: Michael Dunigan (JR)
BENCH:
SG: Quinton Watkins (SR)
PF: Bill Cole (RS-JR)
C: Mike Tisdale (RS-JR)
PG: Lewis Jackson (JR)
SF: Leon Powell (SR)
PG: DeAndre McCamey (FR)
SG: Crandall Head (FR)
PF: Jordan Prosser (RS-FR)
In this deep thought we flash ahead to the 2010-2011 season. Thankfully, all of the NITwits on our current roster will be long gone then. Well, Richard Semrau will still be here, but we were undefeated this year with him in the lineup so he (like Coach K one year in the '90s) doesn't have this held against him on his permanent record.
Here is the scholarship situation for 2007-2010
2007: 5 (4 taken)
2008: 2 (0 taken)
2009: 3 (0 taken)
2010: 2 (1 taken)
Now we get to the good part, where I fill in the rest of the roster using some wishful thinking and some high-quality insight gained from lurking over at Rivals. (illini32 has all the best info and I encourage everyone to subscribe there and get in the know).
I now present to you the lineup for the 2011 National Champion Fighting Illini
STARTERS:
PG: Demetri McCamey (SR)
SG: DJ Richardson (SO)
SF: Jereme Richmond (FR)
PF: Richard Semrau (RS-SR)
C: Michael Dunigan (JR)
BENCH:
SG: Quinton Watkins (SR)
PF: Bill Cole (RS-JR)
C: Mike Tisdale (RS-JR)
PG: Lewis Jackson (JR)
SF: Leon Powell (SR)
PG: DeAndre McCamey (FR)
SG: Crandall Head (FR)
PF: Jordan Prosser (RS-FR)
Monday, January 15, 2007
1/15 NCAA Quest Update
Well, we lost to MSU, as predicted. It would have been nice to steal a game but it's still most important to win the 3 swing games. Now, according to Ken Pomeroy, Illinois has an RPI of 39 (down ever so slightly from 38). I think we'll get in if (but not only if) our RPI is 40 or better. I feel comfortable asserting that Illinois will beat any team with a >150 RPI on the road and a >50 RPI at AH. I'm also sad to say that I expect Illinois to lose to any team with a <25 RPI at AH and a <50 RPI on the road. That gives us 5 automatic wins (@Minnesota (157), Minnesota (157), @Northwestern (159), Northwestern (159), Michigan (59)) and 4 automatic losses (Wisc (10), Indiana (22) @Purdue (43), @Indiana (22)) in the remaining schedule and puts us at 6-7 in the Big Ten. That leaves 3 "swing" games:
1/24 @PSU (RPI 148)
1/30 MSU (RPI 25)
3/3 @Iowa (RPI 109)
What has happened is that the RPI for other Big Ten teams seems to have improved. This is bad news for us (if you believe my formula, which will be re-evaluated based on shifting RPIs of our past opponents) as our home game against Indiana has shifted to the loss column and our game @PSU can no longer be considered a near-certain victory. This puts us at 9-7 even if we win the 3 "swing" games and even that might not get us into the NCAA Tournament. For the first time this season I must say that our team needs to make a substantial improvement or we are a bubble team at best.
1/24 @PSU (RPI 148)
1/30 MSU (RPI 25)
3/3 @Iowa (RPI 109)
What has happened is that the RPI for other Big Ten teams seems to have improved. This is bad news for us (if you believe my formula, which will be re-evaluated based on shifting RPIs of our past opponents) as our home game against Indiana has shifted to the loss column and our game @PSU can no longer be considered a near-certain victory. This puts us at 9-7 even if we win the 3 "swing" games and even that might not get us into the NCAA Tournament. For the first time this season I must say that our team needs to make a substantial improvement or we are a bubble team at best.
Friday, January 12, 2007
NFL playoff picks
I feel very confident about these two:
Chicago over Seattle 20-17
Baltimore over Indianapolis 31-20
I'm iffy about these two:
New England over San Diego (Chargers would beat any other team) 17-16
New Orleans over Philadelphia (this may be rigged) 35-13
Chicago over Seattle 20-17
Baltimore over Indianapolis 31-20
I'm iffy about these two:
New England over San Diego (Chargers would beat any other team) 17-16
New Orleans over Philadelphia (this may be rigged) 35-13
Thursday, January 11, 2007
RPI and "Swing Games"
Last night's win over Iowa was the first step towards a 10-6 record in the Big Ten and a nearly certain NCAA berth. Currently (according to Ken Pomeroy) Illinois has an RPI of 38. Right now I feel comfortable asserting that Illinois will beat any team with a >150 RPI on the road and a >50 RPI at AH. I'm also sad to say that I expect Illinois to lose to any team with a <25 RPI at AH and a <50 RPI on the road. That gives us 6 automatic wins (@Minnesota, Minnesota, @Northwestern, Northwestern, Michigan, @Penn State) and 4 automatic losses (@MSU, Wisc, @Purdue, @Indiana) in the remaining schedule and puts us at 7-6 in the Big Ten. That leaves 3 "swing" games:
1/23 Indiana (RPI 27)
1/30 MSU (RPI 30)
3/3 @Iowa (RPI 116)
We need to win them all to assure ourselves of an NCAA berth. That seems like a tall order with the health of this team but I believe they can do it. I'll keep track of our performances and update this analysis as the numbers change. I'm also planning in-depth previews of these swing games as they approach. I'm dubbing this the NCAA Quest and I will track it through the end of the regular season and give a prognosis heading into the Big Ten Tournament.
1/23 Indiana (RPI 27)
1/30 MSU (RPI 30)
3/3 @Iowa (RPI 116)
We need to win them all to assure ourselves of an NCAA berth. That seems like a tall order with the health of this team but I believe they can do it. I'll keep track of our performances and update this analysis as the numbers change. I'm also planning in-depth previews of these swing games as they approach. I'm dubbing this the NCAA Quest and I will track it through the end of the regular season and give a prognosis heading into the Big Ten Tournament.
Illinois/Iowa in-game observations
1st half, 20:00-16:00
Pruitt can shoot?
Randle and McBride with good starts.
Iowa isn't very good.
Foul situation is good so far.
Slow pace helps with our injury situation.
Feeling very good about this game.
1st half, 16:00-12:00
-good start on a new arena with all the bricks
-Marcus Arnold...why?!?
-Randle looks more dangerous today
-great job rebounding
-McBride wants to shoot a 3 every time he touches the ball...if he avoids forcing "heat checks" that will be a good thing tonight
1st half, 12:00-8:00
-I feel like I'm watching the game in slow-mo
-Brock with his signature hustle play
-Iowa can't guard Pruitt, we need to feed him more
-not expecting any contribution from Jamar tonight
-foul situation is strongly in our favor except for Pruitt's 2nd just now
-McBride needs to realize that there are reasons why some of his shots go in and others don't
1st half, 8:00-4:00
-Iowa got the momentum after 2 fouls on Carter/Pruitt
-Need to attack the zone more aggressively to score
-FT shooting isn't helping us
-Randle keeping us afloat during poor 3-pt shooting from Brock/Meacham
-I miss Richard Semrau right now
1st half, 4:00-0:00
-missed dunk by Randle made me want to cry
-made dunk made me cheer
-Weber needs to play guys with 2 fouls before halftime
-I miss Frazier right now
-Carlwell > Arnold
-bad foul by McBride, who needs to do something new on offense
-bad flashbacks involving McBride and video review at AH
-need to put Randle on Haluska
-Randle is our first-half MVP
-sucks to be losing
2nd half, 20:00-16:00
-keep feeding Pruitt...will foul Iowa out
-Pruitt has moves
-Randle dunk (*applause*)
-STOP FOULING HALUSKA ON 3's!
2nd half, 16:00-12:00
-Meacham won't play next year
-I miss Frazier
-our defense has gotten progressively worse as the game has gone on
-this team has some heart, if little else
2nd half, 12:00-8:00
-Jamar's 3-point shot is broken tonight (or we'd be up 15+)
-yay, 50 points!
-momentum back with Illinois
-we can score inside at will...need to make this happen
-we must win this
-Warren can shoot, thankfully
-Randle can play when he tries
2nd half, 8:00-4:00
-this strange feeling...happiness?
-some of these plays Randle has made passing the rock (*applause*)
-alley-oop? transition? (*applause*)
-technical on Jamar is weak
-are we having fun yet?
-Meacham on the bench...nice decision by Weber
-defensive intensity has really cranked up
-this is Illini basketball, finally
2nd half, 4:00-0:00
-not looking forward to playing @Iowa with their FT shooting
-some ugly possessions down the stretch
-really bad stretch after the final TV timeout
-McBride shot = dagger!
-Warren Carter fouled out...not sure what's up with that
-37.1 seconds left...heartattack begins
-34.1 seconds left...heartattack intensifies
-32.0 seconds left...heartattack reaches critical mass
-32.0 seconds left...inhale
-18.3 seconds left...exhale
-*whew*
Pruitt can shoot?
Randle and McBride with good starts.
Iowa isn't very good.
Foul situation is good so far.
Slow pace helps with our injury situation.
Feeling very good about this game.
1st half, 16:00-12:00
-good start on a new arena with all the bricks
-Marcus Arnold...why?!?
-Randle looks more dangerous today
-great job rebounding
-McBride wants to shoot a 3 every time he touches the ball...if he avoids forcing "heat checks" that will be a good thing tonight
1st half, 12:00-8:00
-I feel like I'm watching the game in slow-mo
-Brock with his signature hustle play
-Iowa can't guard Pruitt, we need to feed him more
-not expecting any contribution from Jamar tonight
-foul situation is strongly in our favor except for Pruitt's 2nd just now
-McBride needs to realize that there are reasons why some of his shots go in and others don't
1st half, 8:00-4:00
-Iowa got the momentum after 2 fouls on Carter/Pruitt
-Need to attack the zone more aggressively to score
-FT shooting isn't helping us
-Randle keeping us afloat during poor 3-pt shooting from Brock/Meacham
-I miss Richard Semrau right now
1st half, 4:00-0:00
-missed dunk by Randle made me want to cry
-made dunk made me cheer
-Weber needs to play guys with 2 fouls before halftime
-I miss Frazier right now
-Carlwell > Arnold
-bad foul by McBride, who needs to do something new on offense
-bad flashbacks involving McBride and video review at AH
-need to put Randle on Haluska
-Randle is our first-half MVP
-sucks to be losing
2nd half, 20:00-16:00
-keep feeding Pruitt...will foul Iowa out
-Pruitt has moves
-Randle dunk (*applause*)
-STOP FOULING HALUSKA ON 3's!
2nd half, 16:00-12:00
-Meacham won't play next year
-I miss Frazier
-our defense has gotten progressively worse as the game has gone on
-this team has some heart, if little else
2nd half, 12:00-8:00
-Jamar's 3-point shot is broken tonight (or we'd be up 15+)
-yay, 50 points!
-momentum back with Illinois
-we can score inside at will...need to make this happen
-we must win this
-Warren can shoot, thankfully
-Randle can play when he tries
2nd half, 8:00-4:00
-this strange feeling...happiness?
-some of these plays Randle has made passing the rock (*applause*)
-alley-oop? transition? (*applause*)
-technical on Jamar is weak
-are we having fun yet?
-Meacham on the bench...nice decision by Weber
-defensive intensity has really cranked up
-this is Illini basketball, finally
2nd half, 4:00-0:00
-not looking forward to playing @Iowa with their FT shooting
-some ugly possessions down the stretch
-really bad stretch after the final TV timeout
-McBride shot = dagger!
-Warren Carter fouled out...not sure what's up with that
-37.1 seconds left...heartattack begins
-34.1 seconds left...heartattack intensifies
-32.0 seconds left...heartattack reaches critical mass
-32.0 seconds left...inhale
-18.3 seconds left...exhale
-*whew*
Tuesday, January 9, 2007
Resolving the BCS/Championship Dilemma
Here is what I would do:
1. Limit the season to 11 games.
2. 8-team seeded playoff with the first round on 12/26-12/27
3. Replace the four BCS bowls with a college football Final Four, including a consolation game (the 3 vs. 4 game wouldn't mean any less than it does now).
4. Using 4 additional bowls in a playoff will wipe out 8 slots and keep the lame 6-6 teams out of meaningless bowls.
-Boise State was robbed this year because we never got to see how they stacked up against the very best teams. One of the best games in college football history proved utterly meaningless. Notre Dame losing every bowl will have more impact and Domers will suffer more.
-The current BCS system does a great job of picking 8 (10 was too many) teams for high-level matchups. Filling most of the slots with conference champions still keeps that meaningful. A couple wildcard slots give teams like Boise State a chance to prove themselves.
-If your team is really that good, you have a lot of NFL players that shouldn't struggle to play up to 15 games. You don't even extend the college football season beyond where it is now.
-It eliminates the scenario where a team has 51 days between games (what a joke).
-The general public gets to see the championship team play more than one meaningful game, helping them recognize a true champion.
-BCS (Bowl Championship Series) will actually become a series of bowls to determine a champion.
1. Limit the season to 11 games.
2. 8-team seeded playoff with the first round on 12/26-12/27
3. Replace the four BCS bowls with a college football Final Four, including a consolation game (the 3 vs. 4 game wouldn't mean any less than it does now).
4. Using 4 additional bowls in a playoff will wipe out 8 slots and keep the lame 6-6 teams out of meaningless bowls.
-Boise State was robbed this year because we never got to see how they stacked up against the very best teams. One of the best games in college football history proved utterly meaningless. Notre Dame losing every bowl will have more impact and Domers will suffer more.
-The current BCS system does a great job of picking 8 (10 was too many) teams for high-level matchups. Filling most of the slots with conference champions still keeps that meaningful. A couple wildcard slots give teams like Boise State a chance to prove themselves.
-If your team is really that good, you have a lot of NFL players that shouldn't struggle to play up to 15 games. You don't even extend the college football season beyond where it is now.
-It eliminates the scenario where a team has 51 days between games (what a joke).
-The general public gets to see the championship team play more than one meaningful game, helping them recognize a true champion.
-BCS (Bowl Championship Series) will actually become a series of bowls to determine a champion.
An updated look at the 07-08 lineup
Frazier - 1
McCamey - 1
Meacham - 1/2
Smith - 2
Brock - 2/3
Q - 2/3
Randle - 3/4
Semrau - 4
Cole - 4
Carlwell - 4/5
CJ Jackson - 4/5
Pruitt - 5
Tisdale - 5
-So we have 2.5 PGs, 2.5 SGs, 1.5 SFs, 3.5 PFs, and 3 C's.
-This basically means we have one extra PF and are one SF short, but otherwise have an extremely balanced lineup.
-PF is the one position where we don't return a starter so it will be interesting to see if anyone can rise up from the crowd and claim the starting spot.
-Another possibility is that we recruit another SF (Leon Freeman, JUCO?) and have someone transfer.
-It's also probable that we have one or two redshirts.
-One intriguing option is starting Brock at the 3 and Randle at the 4.
-Our incoming freshmen guards are pretty good and they should both get significant PT.
-Next year's team should be a significant improvement as long as someone steps up to replace the scoring we lose with Warren Carter.
McCamey - 1
Meacham - 1/2
Smith - 2
Brock - 2/3
Q - 2/3
Randle - 3/4
Semrau - 4
Cole - 4
Carlwell - 4/5
CJ Jackson - 4/5
Pruitt - 5
Tisdale - 5
-So we have 2.5 PGs, 2.5 SGs, 1.5 SFs, 3.5 PFs, and 3 C's.
-This basically means we have one extra PF and are one SF short, but otherwise have an extremely balanced lineup.
-PF is the one position where we don't return a starter so it will be interesting to see if anyone can rise up from the crowd and claim the starting spot.
-Another possibility is that we recruit another SF (Leon Freeman, JUCO?) and have someone transfer.
-It's also probable that we have one or two redshirts.
-One intriguing option is starting Brock at the 3 and Randle at the 4.
-Our incoming freshmen guards are pretty good and they should both get significant PT.
-Next year's team should be a significant improvement as long as someone steps up to replace the scoring we lose with Warren Carter.
Weber's new approach to recruiting
I think after Sherron Collins chose Kansas, Weber announced that he was going to take a different approach to recruiting. Let me explain what I think his old approach was and why I believe things will improve in the future with a new approach.
Weber used to try and hold out for "elite" talent. In that sense, he was actually in agreement with some of his detractors [those who really wanted a lineup stocked with All-Americans]. Weber desperately wanted players like Julian Wright, Jon Scheyer, Sherron Collins, Derrick Rose, and Eric Gordon. I get very frustrated when people get mad at Weber and act like he is Ron Turner and is trying to win with lesser talent. Weber is not lazy with recruiting. He works very hard and probably goes to bed at night dreaming of "best backcourt ever" lineups too. Weber has never argued that he wants anything but elite talent. Some have tried to defend Weber by saying that he can win with average talent, but his intent was to focus on recruiting the very best players available to the bitter end.
Actually, that has caused the problem. For whatever reason (I won't repeat the speculation), Weber has not been able to land the elite talent. This is pretty typical with Illinois. The problem is that in fighting unwinnable recruiting battles, Weber let the great Plan B talent slip away. There are several top 100 players that we passed on in order to chase recruits that didn't come here. We have struggled because of having to fill our roster with some Plan C guys, transfers, or empty seats on the bench (banked scholarships).
The good news for Illini fans is that Weber seems to be figuring this out. Now, while we don't have Derrick Rose, we still have Demetri McCamey. At one time he was a plan B but now he's looking pretty good, especially since he signed the LOI. Weber also just got a verbal from Quinton Watkins and did not foolishly let 2 scholarships roll over to '08 to try to hit the home run then (it won't happen, but now we will get a single or a double instead of striking out).
For those of you who long for top talent, there is a new hope there as well. Weber is good at identifying top players early on, so now he is offering them earlier and pressing for commitments. While there is some risk involved, getting a commitment from Jereme Richmond was probably our best hope at getting an All-American in our 2010 class. Weber also offered DJ Richardson and that early offer may pay off soon. The obvious upside to this new approach is that if Weber sees that the kid isn't really interested, he can start targeting other players and in the end nobody gets burned.
Weber's recruiting will improve in the future because of this new approach, if nothing else. Bruce Weber is not a salesman on the order or Ron Zook or Thad Matta, but he should be able to get us back on track. I understand that for some Weber is a victim of his own success (and will not be able to meet the heightened expectations after April '05) but I am confident that this program is not headed for its downfall under Weber. I think in the long run that Weber will do very well here, and I am heartened by that.
Weber used to try and hold out for "elite" talent. In that sense, he was actually in agreement with some of his detractors [those who really wanted a lineup stocked with All-Americans]. Weber desperately wanted players like Julian Wright, Jon Scheyer, Sherron Collins, Derrick Rose, and Eric Gordon. I get very frustrated when people get mad at Weber and act like he is Ron Turner and is trying to win with lesser talent. Weber is not lazy with recruiting. He works very hard and probably goes to bed at night dreaming of "best backcourt ever" lineups too. Weber has never argued that he wants anything but elite talent. Some have tried to defend Weber by saying that he can win with average talent, but his intent was to focus on recruiting the very best players available to the bitter end.
Actually, that has caused the problem. For whatever reason (I won't repeat the speculation), Weber has not been able to land the elite talent. This is pretty typical with Illinois. The problem is that in fighting unwinnable recruiting battles, Weber let the great Plan B talent slip away. There are several top 100 players that we passed on in order to chase recruits that didn't come here. We have struggled because of having to fill our roster with some Plan C guys, transfers, or empty seats on the bench (banked scholarships).
The good news for Illini fans is that Weber seems to be figuring this out. Now, while we don't have Derrick Rose, we still have Demetri McCamey. At one time he was a plan B but now he's looking pretty good, especially since he signed the LOI. Weber also just got a verbal from Quinton Watkins and did not foolishly let 2 scholarships roll over to '08 to try to hit the home run then (it won't happen, but now we will get a single or a double instead of striking out).
For those of you who long for top talent, there is a new hope there as well. Weber is good at identifying top players early on, so now he is offering them earlier and pressing for commitments. While there is some risk involved, getting a commitment from Jereme Richmond was probably our best hope at getting an All-American in our 2010 class. Weber also offered DJ Richardson and that early offer may pay off soon. The obvious upside to this new approach is that if Weber sees that the kid isn't really interested, he can start targeting other players and in the end nobody gets burned.
Weber's recruiting will improve in the future because of this new approach, if nothing else. Bruce Weber is not a salesman on the order or Ron Zook or Thad Matta, but he should be able to get us back on track. I understand that for some Weber is a victim of his own success (and will not be able to meet the heightened expectations after April '05) but I am confident that this program is not headed for its downfall under Weber. I think in the long run that Weber will do very well here, and I am heartened by that.
8 Problems I've Observed in the Weber Era
These aren't about a game or two but are consistent problems that are becoming more and more apparent each year.
1. Failure to land a single All-American caliber recruit in 4 years. Obviously the Eric Gordon mess affects this, but there is a flawed approach in pursuing elite recruits that we can't land that leads to problem 2.
2. Failure to recruit enough players to fill the 13 basketball scholarships, coupled with an overreliance on transfers that are unable to compete in the Big Ten.
3. Inability to stop slashing wing players on other teams or to defend the lane against strong post players. This is probably because of the strict man-to-man defensive approach, which also leads to problem 4.
4. Inability to effectively attack zone defenses, relying excessively on perimeter shooting. This is probably because the players do not practice sufficiently against a zone defense.
5. Insufficient use of dribble penetration from guards, again leading to an overreliance on perimeter shooting. This leaves us vulnerable to cold spells and does not put our opponents into foul trouble. It also leads to problem 6.
6. Poor free-throw shooting. I'm not sure why individual free-throw shooting performances are bad. However, as a team we end up with most of our free throws being shot by poor FT shooters (this year our FT shooting % is determined by Frazier, Carter, and Pruitt).
7. Lack of a traditional post game. We struggle to score inside even against teams where we have a substantial size advantage. This is a big reason why we struggle at times against low-major teams that get demolished by other teams. It also completes the generic formula for beating us where you overplay our guards on the perimeter and play behind our big men in the post.
8. Rich McBride, Warren Carter, and Brian Randle. These guys have been here all four years and maybe they just aren't good basketball players, despite their recruiting rankings and/or athletic ability. Part of it is Weber's fault for not being able to maximize their talents, but you can't blame coaching for everything. Just replacing these players might make us a better team in future.
1. Failure to land a single All-American caliber recruit in 4 years. Obviously the Eric Gordon mess affects this, but there is a flawed approach in pursuing elite recruits that we can't land that leads to problem 2.
2. Failure to recruit enough players to fill the 13 basketball scholarships, coupled with an overreliance on transfers that are unable to compete in the Big Ten.
3. Inability to stop slashing wing players on other teams or to defend the lane against strong post players. This is probably because of the strict man-to-man defensive approach, which also leads to problem 4.
4. Inability to effectively attack zone defenses, relying excessively on perimeter shooting. This is probably because the players do not practice sufficiently against a zone defense.
5. Insufficient use of dribble penetration from guards, again leading to an overreliance on perimeter shooting. This leaves us vulnerable to cold spells and does not put our opponents into foul trouble. It also leads to problem 6.
6. Poor free-throw shooting. I'm not sure why individual free-throw shooting performances are bad. However, as a team we end up with most of our free throws being shot by poor FT shooters (this year our FT shooting % is determined by Frazier, Carter, and Pruitt).
7. Lack of a traditional post game. We struggle to score inside even against teams where we have a substantial size advantage. This is a big reason why we struggle at times against low-major teams that get demolished by other teams. It also completes the generic formula for beating us where you overplay our guards on the perimeter and play behind our big men in the post.
8. Rich McBride, Warren Carter, and Brian Randle. These guys have been here all four years and maybe they just aren't good basketball players, despite their recruiting rankings and/or athletic ability. Part of it is Weber's fault for not being able to maximize their talents, but you can't blame coaching for everything. Just replacing these players might make us a better team in future.
Blueprint for making the NCAAs
All we have to do is win these games and we are 22-9 (10-6):
vs. Iowa
@Minnesota
vs. Indiana
vs. Michigan State
vs. Minnesota
@Northwestern
vs. Northwestern
vs. Michigan
@Penn State
@Iowa
that would put us at 8-2 in our last 10 Big Ten games, and we'd be a lock for the NCAAs.
If we slip up, we can make up a game by winning one of these games:
@Michigan State
vs. Wisconsin
@Purdue
@Indiana
none of those games are lost causes.I could tell by looking at the schedule that this was going to be a very tough stretch for us and was hoping that we could steal one of the last 3 games. Nevertheless, none of these were really bad losses. Yes, we played poorly in these games but it would be foolish to think that we won't rebound from our slump in play.The worst is over, Illini fans! Time to gear up for a run to the NCAA Tournament and a better team next year.
vs. Iowa
@Minnesota
vs. Indiana
vs. Michigan State
vs. Minnesota
@Northwestern
vs. Northwestern
vs. Michigan
@Penn State
@Iowa
that would put us at 8-2 in our last 10 Big Ten games, and we'd be a lock for the NCAAs.
If we slip up, we can make up a game by winning one of these games:
@Michigan State
vs. Wisconsin
@Purdue
@Indiana
none of those games are lost causes.I could tell by looking at the schedule that this was going to be a very tough stretch for us and was hoping that we could steal one of the last 3 games. Nevertheless, none of these were really bad losses. Yes, we played poorly in these games but it would be foolish to think that we won't rebound from our slump in play.The worst is over, Illini fans! Time to gear up for a run to the NCAA Tournament and a better team next year.
Welcome to my blog
This blog is originating as an outgrowth of some of my posts as IlliniJoe81 on http://illinois.scout.com
Now the reader will have access to my detailed thoughts on various Illinois sports issues, along with my take on current events, science, and cultural issues without the clutter. Illiniboard users will not have to return to the scout site to find my postings.
I'll admit that this is a hugely egotistic, self-important effort...but that's what makes it fun.
Now the reader will have access to my detailed thoughts on various Illinois sports issues, along with my take on current events, science, and cultural issues without the clutter. Illiniboard users will not have to return to the scout site to find my postings.
I'll admit that this is a hugely egotistic, self-important effort...but that's what makes it fun.
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