Preseason Rotation Projection

Here's last year's rotation first (total minutes divided by 34.25 games)

Meacham - 30.5 mpg
Davis - 30.5 mpg
McCamey - 30.4 mpg
Frazier - 30.0 mpg
Tisdale - 24.6 mpg
Brock - 17.3 mpg
Keller - 12.5 mpg
Jordan - 8.1 mpg
Legion - 7.1 mpg
Semrau - 5.5 mpg
Cole - 2.2 mpg
Jackson - 0.6 mpg
Chisholm - 0.5 mpg
(Total - 199.8 mpg, not 200 because of rounding)

Assuming Jordan comes back, we are returning 121.4 mpg (roughly 3 out of 5 spots). That leaves 78.6 mpg to divide between 5 new players (Richardson, Paul, Griffey, Bertrand, and Simpson) so the battle for playing time is going to be fierce.

My projection is going to round to the nearest 4 minutes just for simplicity and also so I don't have to worry about garbage time. Here goes:

*McCamey - 28 mpg
*Davis - 28 mpg
*Tisdale - 24 mpg
*Richardson - 24 mpg
*Legion - 24 mpg
Paul - 20 mpg
Keller - 16 mpg
Griffey - 8 mpg
Jordan - 8 mpg
Cole - 8 mpg
Bertrand - 4 mpg
Simpson - 4 mpg
Semrau - 4 mpg

I think Weber mixes things up a little bit early in the season so a lot of the bench guys will get a few minutes to show what they can do. Once it gets closer to Big Ten season, I think we will see Semrau, Simpson, Bertrand, and Cole relegated to garbage time and we will have our 9-man rotation.

In my mind, it's not hard to figure out the five starters. Some may wonder about Legion, but if he proves he can play defense he has the right mix of talent, size, and experience to claim a spot. Once you have the starters, Keller and Paul are the first subs off the bench and they allow you lots of flexibility with the substitution patterns. Jordan is a nice defensive stopper and backup PG. I also think Griffey fills in nicely for the Mikes when we have foul trouble, although his spot could easily be taken by Semrau or Simpson if they show more rebounding ability and toughness in the paint.

I think Weber likes Cole but he dreads the zone defense so much that he'll never be totally comfortable with that wrinkle and it's only Plan B if Legion can't make 3-pointers or one of the freshmen guards hits the wall. Semrau seems to fade to the bench as the year goes on. Stan Simpson intrigues me but I don't think he impresses the coaches enough in practice. I will be looking closely and hoping I'm wrong on that one.

3-Year Recruiting Turnaround Timeline

10/13/06 - Eric Gordon bolts for IU.
http://www.herald-review.com/app/blogs/marktupper/ ?m=20061013

11/23/06 - Jereme Richmond verbals
http://www.herald-review.com/app/blogs/marktupper/ ?p=299

1/8/07 - Quinton Watkins verbals

2/13/07 - Jamar Smith/Brian Carlwell accident
http://www.herald-review.com/app/blogs/marktupper/ ?m=20070213

4/17/07 - Rodney Alexander verbals

4/28/07 - Jeff Jordan verbals (walk-on)
http://www.herald-review.com/app/blogs/marktupper/ ?m=20070428

6/27/07 - Liggins to Kentucky

7/16/07 - Dunigan/Humphrey to Oregon

8/7/07 - Iman Shumpert eliminates Illinois (maybe this happened earlier)

8/14/07 - Mike Davis verbals/signs
http://www.herald-review.com/app/blogs/marktupper/ ?m=20070814

8/15/07 - Scott Suggs to Washington

8/28/07 - Quinton Watkins ruled ineligible
http://www.herald-review.com/app/blogs/marktupper/ ?m=200708

9/5/07 Tracy Webster leaves for Kentucky
http://www.herald-review.com/app/blogs/marktupper/ ?m=20070906

9/7/07 - Darius Miller to Kentucky

9/19/07 - Jerrance Howard hired
http://www.herald-review.com/app/blogs/marktupper/ ?m=20070919

10/11/07 - DJ Richardson, Brandon Paul, and Joseph Bertrand verbal
http://www.herald-review.com/app/blogs/marktupper/ ?m=20071012

10/15/07 - Stan Simpson verbals
http://www.herald-review.com/app/blogs/marktupper/ ?m=20071015

12/21/07 - Alex Legion transfers
http://www.herald-review.com/app/blogs/marktupper/?m=20071222

1/6/08 - Crandall Head verbals
http://www.herald-review.com/app/blogs/marktupper/ ?m=20080106

1/31/08 - Tyler Griffey verbals

2/20/08 - Brian Carlwell leaves
http://www.herald-review.com/app/blogs/marktupper/ ?m=20080220

3/10/08 - Dominique Keller verbals

4/15/08 - Alexander leaves
http://www.herald-review.com/app/blogs/marktupper/ ?m=20080415

7/29/08 - Meyers Leonard verbals

7/31/08 - Jamar Smith dismissed from team

12/18/08 - Tracy Abrams verbals
http://www.herald-review.com/app/blogs/marktupper/ ?m=20081218

6/24/09 - Jeff Jordan leaves (but is he coming back?)
http://www.herald-review.com/app/blogs/marktupper/ ?m=20090624

10/9/09 - Nnanna Egwu verbals