Launching the NIT Quest

It has been a tough year for Illini basketball fans, and we find ourselves sitting at 9-9 (1-4) heading into this weekend's road game against Purdue. A reasonable goal for this team will be to make the NIT. I have concluded that it will take 18 wins (including the Big Ten Tournament) to earn an NIT bid. We'll keep it that simple for now. 9 wins down, 9 wins to go. Here's a look at our remaining 13 regular season games, with a nod to Ken Pomeroy's ratings.

3 Expected Losses (<30% chance of victory)
@Ohio St
@Michigan St
vs. Wisconsin

4 Expected Wins (>70% chance of victory)
vs. Northwestern
vs. Purdue
@Michigan
@Iowa

6 Swing Games (30-70% chance of victory)
@Purdue
vs. Indiana
@Minnesota
@Penn State
vs. Michigan State
vs. Minnesota

I expect one win in the Big Ten Tournament, so we need to win all 4 Expected Wins and 4 of the 6 Swing Games. If we can't do that, our only hope is to get extra wins in the Big Ten Tournament or to pull of a shocking victory instead of one of the Expected Losses.
The team has been playing better lately, so let's hope that continues because the way things look right now there isn't an easy road to even make the NIT.