Illini Basketball Next Year - What We Know

Since it's the middle of the week and I'm bored, now seems like a good time to think about how the Illini will do next year. The only problem with that is that we don't even know how they are going to do this year (no idea if they will win or lose their next game or where they will be seeded from 3-7 in the BTT). When you add in the possibility that our 2007 recruiting class is incomplete and the Jamar situation, there is no hope of knowing how next season will go. However, there are some things that we do know and that can help us get started.

Rich McBride, Warren Carter, and Marcus Arnold are all graduating. We lose 2 starters and a significant role player in our rotation. Together they average 25.6 ppg (of our 65.8) and 70.5 mpg (of 200). McBride is a 2-year starter and Carter is a 1-year starter. In terms of efficiency, McBride has a .351 FG%, .353 3PT%, .724 FT%, 2.1 rebounds/game and 54/37 A/TO. Carter has a .488 FG%, .368 FT%, .717 FT%, 6.3 rebounds/game, 58/71 A/TO. Carter and McBride combined for 531 of 1596 FG attempts. So that's what we're losing.

What about the other 3 starters and their efficiency?

Frazier .365 FG%, .325 3PT%, .606 FT%, 4.7 rebounds/game and 128/75 A/TO
Randle .544 FG%, .385 3PT%, .595 FT%, 4.4 rebounds/game and 23/33 A/TO
Pruitt .545 FG%, no 3PT%, .516 FT%, 7.4 rebounds/game and 7/57 A/TO

It's reasonable to expect returning starters to get more shots. We will likely see an Illini team that is excellent at rebounding and efficient shooting, but BRUTAL at the FT line and not a very good passing team.

Defensively, we should be excellent next season. All three returning starters are great defenders and Carter is the only weak link on defense this year (although he is improving).

Offensively we have some serious issues. We might not have any great pure shooters or pure scorers. This is a huge problem. If Jamar is not back, we will need big contributions from Q and Semrau. Both of them seem to have plenty of potential but you never know with freshmen (or even redshirt freshmen).

It's hard to say much more once you realize that it all comes down to finding new ways to put the ball in the hoop. We need to have 3 legitimate threats behind the line and one post scorer for Weber's offense to succeed.

Here are the questions for next year

-Will Jamar be back, and if so can he return to his scorer's form?
-Who starts at PF? Can he score?
-How much can our freshmen guards contribute?
-Will either Brock or a new recruit emerge as a wing scorer coming off the bench?
-Will injuries or off-court incidents disrupt the season again?
-Will this team be ready to handle a difficult non-conference schedule?
-Who will provide the necessary leadership to overcome adversity and win on the road in the Big Ten?

In summary, I don't know if Illini games next year will be good or bad, but I do know that they will once again be ugly.

2/26 NCAA Quest Update

Huge win @PSU today. It was expected, but it's nice to see the team playing its best ball heading into March. 21 wins is huge and 9-6 in the Big Ten feels awfully good. Our RPI has climbed to 30 which is off the bubble, so I'd say we're in for sure if the season ended today. Our Pomeroy rating is up to #22 so I'd say we should see some votes in Monday's polls (we even deserved to be ranked at this point). Here is an updated look at the pack in the Big Ten and what record they are on pace for.

3. Illinois 9-6 (10-6)
4. MSU 8-6 (9-7)
4. Indiana 8-6 (10-6)
4. Iowa 8-6 (9-7)
7. Purdue 7-7 (9-7)
7. Michigan 7-7 (8-8)

For the BTT, let's assume Ohio State gets the 1 seed and Wisconsin gets the 2 seed. If these predictions hold up, Indiana gets the 3 seed, Illinois gets the 4 seed, Iowa gets the 5 seed, Purdue gets the 6 seed, MSU gets the 7 seed, Michigan gets the 8 seed, then Minnesota, NW, and PSU. The BTT matchups are then:

Ohio State vs. Michigan/Minnesota
Wisconsin vs. MSU/NW
Indiana vs. Purdue/PSU
Illinois vs. Iowa

That might give us a Big Ten Tournament with no upsets. There's a slight chance we're already in the NCAAs, but I believe we need to win one of our next two games to get in. In my opinion, only the refs can beat us at Iowa. Right now we're on pace for a 23-10 record heading into the NCAA Tournament. That might get us a 7 seed.

Jamar on the Bench?

Since the accident a week ago Monday and the ensuing events and reports, I've been all over the place with reactions to the fate of Jamar Smith. At times I've lashed out at Weber for the perception that he's coddling a team full of criminals. Other times I wonder where the players would be without someone who loves them like a father and refuses to give up on them. I almost wrote a blog entitled "Jamar Must Go" a couple days ago upon hearing about his apparent refusal of help for Brian. I've questioned whether Jamar was ever a "good kid" and doubted my support of college athletics and the surrounding culture it creates. I've empathized with Jamar, remembering times in my life where I've been filled with regret from mistakes I've made irresponsibly yet unintentionally that I wished I could simply undo. Plus there is the factor that I'm an Illini fan and I want us to win games. I have never wavered in my absolute disgust at drunk driving and its prevalence in our country.

Still, I found myself watching the Illinois/Michigan game in the wake of these seesawing opinions and emotions. In the wake of the latest developments, I posted the following in response to watching the game and reading the subsequent Tupper blog.

It was disconcerting to see Smith on the bench having a good time after the recent events for which he was directly responsible. However, it does hint that there may be more to the story than we're hearing from the prosecution in this case.

"The team was adamant that Jamar should be with the team and on the bench. The most outspoken of all was Carlwell and his opinion held extra weight, since the public perception is that Jamar Smith left him for dead in the car that snowy night. I can tell you everyone associated with the program strongly disputes that notion and Smith’s attorney, Mark Lipton, will no doubt be arguing that in court."

It seems to me that those associated with the team are the ones who would know the most about the events of that fateful night. For all this "left for dead" talk, we've never heard Jamar or Brian's side of the story. Surely any responsible decision-maker would take that into account. I think the sight of Brian and Jamar arm-in-arm is a powerful statement from those two individuals.
We condemn Jamar (and I'm not saying he's innocent or should go unpunished) for presumably looking out for his own reputation and self-interest when his teammate was clearly suffering and in urgent need of help. Jamar is suffering now and needs help. If we abandon him to protect our own reputation and self-interest, are we really any better?
Justice will be served and I doubt this is some grand cover-up. Perhaps it is really that Coach Weber understands that two wrongs don't make a right. It's that understanding that allowed Luther Head and Richard McBride to redeem themselves and we are all better for it.

2/22 NCAA Quest Update

Blogger is unblocked at work, so I'm back early! We just got a critical win against Michigan and suddenly the landscape looks a lot brighter for us. 20 wins is a big milestone and 8-6 in the Big Ten feels awfully good. Our RPI has soared to 32 which is off the bubble, so I'd say we're in for sure if the season ended today. Our Pomeroy rating is up to #25 so I'd say we should see some votes in the polls if we stay on track. Here is an updated look at the pack in the Big Ten and what record they are on pace for.

3. Indiana 8-5 (10-6)
4. Illinois 8-6 (9-7)
5. Iowa 8-6 (9-7)
6. MSU 7-6 (9-7)
7. Purdue 6-7 (9-7)
8. Michigan 6-7 (7-9)

Wow! What a logjam at 9-7. That's right on the bubble. As far as NCAAs go, 9-7 would put MSU in, Iowa out, and Purdue and Illinois waiting to see how they do in the BTT. How would the seeding work if Iowa loses @PSU and beats Illinois?

IL = 2-3 vs 9-7 teams, 0-1 vs OSU, 0-1 vs Wisc
IA = 3-2 vs 9-7 teams, 0-1 vs OSU, 0-2 vs Wisc
PU = 2-1 vs 9-7 teams, 0-2 vs OSU, 0-1 vs Wisc
MS = 2-3 vs 9-7 teams, 0-2 vs OSU, 1-1 vs Wisc?

so Purdue gets the 4 seed with a 2-1 group record, Iowa is the 5 seed with the 3-2 record, IL is the 6 seed with the 0-1 record against OSU, and MSU is the 7 seed.

The tiebreakers can be found at this site.

All that aside, the most important thing is to get some revenge against Penn State this weekend. I'm planning another entry tomorrow to discuss our last game against Penn State and the ensuing consequences.

2/19 NCAA Quest Update

Sorry for the late post. Turns out Blogger is blocked at work now so I have to do this on my own time now. We had to get that win against Northwestern. I'm changing the format of this to focus on the Big Ten standings and our status on the bubble since the schedule breakdown is trivial at this point. It's nice to be up to 19 wins and back over .500 in the Big Ten. Our RPI is 44 according to Pomeroy but the NCAA has reclassified some of our games so officially we're at 40. Any better than that and we're off the bubble IMO. Here is an updated look at the pack in the Big Ten and what record they are on pace for.

3. Indiana 7-5 (10-6)
4. Illinois 7-6 (9-7)
5. Iowa 7-6 (8-8)
6. MSU 6-6 (8-8)
7. Purdue 6-6 (9-7)
8. Michigan 6-6 (8-8)

I'm not sure if the matchups will allow that exact result but it's a nice look at the pace. We're on pace for the #5 seed in the Big Ten tournament and a 4/5 matchup against Purdue (essentially a play-in game for the NCAA Tournament). BTW, MSU could slip into the tournament with an 8-8 Big Ten record and an easy victory over the 11 seed and a strong performance in the quarterfinal game against Indiana.

After all this talk, it's likely as simple as winning 3 of our next 4 and we're in. Let's start by exacting some revenge vs. Michigan on our home floor on Senior Night.

Fame and Tragedy

Sometimes I get so caught up in the drama and passion of being a college basketball fan and I forget that we're often talking about teenagers. By now, anyone reading this blog will surely know of the accident last night involving Jamar Smith and Brian Carlwell. If you don't know the details, I refer you to this brilliant piece of journalism by the Chicago Tribune. I think the opening quote captures the feelings of most Illini fans this morning. Seeing my quote in a serious publication gave me a sudden glimpse of what it must feel like to have your life available for public scrutiny. I could have easily let my emotions get the better of me and written something hurtful and stupid and then ended up regretting it later. I generally act cautiously because it is easy to make mistakes in life and often impossible to undo them.

Right now Jamar and Brian appear to be guilty only of some questionable driving and a lot of bad luck. I live in Maryland (which is currently being coated in ice) and might have been a victim of a similar tragedy today on my way home from work. Often the only silver lining to a tragedy involving a famous athlete is that it forces the rest of us to re-evaluate our lives. Do I take the proper caution when driving in inclement weather? Do I know what to do if I am in an accident and I need emergency help? Am I avoiding situations where I will be in the wrong place at the wrong time? If I'm going to drink, will I be sure not to get behind the wheel?

The good news is that everything that I've heard suggests that Brian is recovering quickly and will be ok. I can't imagine that he'll play again this season, but his future as an Illini basketball player and dreams of playing in the NBA may still be intact. I will continue to pray for him and that there is no more bad news coming out of this story.

2/11 NCAA Quest Update

Tough loss to Indiana, as a victory there would have likely sewn up an NCAA berth, for all practical purposes. Still, it was encouraging to see the effort and improved play from the Illini. Our RPI actually improved to 41, so we're nearly off the bubble (RPI 40-50). 6-4 in the last 10 and 6-6 road/neutral. I feel comfortable asserting that Illinois will beat any team with a >125 RPI on the road and a >50 RPI at AH. I'm also sad to say that I expect Illinois to lose to any team with a <20 RPI at AH and a <50 RPI (up from <70 after a strong performance at Indiana) on the road. That gives us 3 automatic wins (NW (147), Michigan (58), @PSU (206)) in the remaining schedule and puts us at 9-6 in the Big Ten. That leaves 1 "swing" game:

3/3 @Iowa (80)

Another factor that is important is where we finish in the Big Ten. I think a top 5 finish is essential for comparisons to other teams and for our BTT seeding. Right now we have the following pack in the Big Ten (including predicted finish).

3. Indiana 7-3 (12-4)
4. Iowa 6-5 (9-7)
5. Illinois 6-6 (9-7)
6. Michigan 5-5 (7-9)
7. Purdue 5-6 (9-7)
8. Michigan State 4-6 (7-9)

If everything finishes as predicted we will be in a tie for the 4-6 spots with Iowa and Purdue. I still think we can beat Iowa and finish at 10-6, which would put us in the NCAAs.

2/8 NCAA Quest Update

Nice road win over Northwestern to move to 6-5 in the Big Ten. The win total is up to 18 and that's starting to look good. I'd say we're at the point now where we have a >50% chance of making the NCAAs, but there are a lot of bubble teams fighting for a few spots so we have to keep this going. Our RPI is steady at 44, so I guess we're still right in the middle of the bubble (RPI 40-50). 6-4 in the last 10 and 6-5 road/neutral. I feel comfortable asserting that Illinois will beat any team with a >125 RPI on the road and a >50 RPI at AH. I'm also sad to say that I expect Illinois to lose to any team with a <20 RPI at AH and a <70 RPI (up from <75 after NW) on the road. That gives us 3 automatic wins (NW (153), Michigan (54), @PSU (195)) and 1 automatic loss (@Indiana (17)) in the remaining schedule and puts us at 9-6 in the Big Ten. That leaves 1 "swing" game:

3/3 @Iowa (83)

Another factor that is important is where we finish in the Big Ten. I think a top 5 finish is essential for comparisons to other teams and for our BTT seeding. Right now we have the following pack in the Big Ten (including predicted finish).

3. Indiana 6-3 (11-5)
4. Iowa 6-4 (9-7)
5. Illinois 6-5 (9-7)
6. Purdue 5-5 (9-7)
7. Michigan 4-5 (7-9)
8. Michigan State 4-6 (7-9)

If everything finishes as predicted we will be in a tie for the 4-6 spots with Iowa and Purdue. I'm not sure how the tiebreakers work but I will find out soon. The more important thing is that we are playing with house money against Indiana and if we somehow steal a win there we would be on track for 10-6 and 3rd place, knocking them down to 4th place. We're sure to get hosed by the refs so it will be ugly. However, this Illini team is improving and Indiana isn't. You never know.

2/4 NCAA Quest Update

Ugly win over Minnesota Saturday but it counts the same in the standings. It's good to have won over 2/3 of our games and be back to .500 in the Big Ten. I'd say we're at the point now where we have a >50% chance of making the NCAAs. Our RPI actually dropped to 44, so I guess we're still right in the middle of the bubble (RPI 40-50). I feel comfortable asserting that Illinois will beat any team with a >125 RPI on the road and a >50 RPI at AH. I'm also sad to say that I expect Illinois to lose to any team with a <20 RPI at AH and a <75 RPI on the road. That gives us 4 automatic wins (@NW (145), NW (145), Michigan (56), @PSU (200)) and 1 automatic loss (@Indiana (18)) in the remaining schedule and puts us at 9-6 in the Big Ten. That leaves 1 "swing" game:

3/3 @Iowa (85)

What we've seen is that Michigan is getting a lot worse while Iowa seems to be improving rapidly. The game at Iowa is looking a lot tougher than I originally expected. I feel better about our chances at getting in with a 9-7 record and a win in the Big Ten Tournament. In future editions of NCAA Quest I will start to take a closer look at how the Big Ten is shaking out and what we'll be up against in the Big Ten Tournament.
I'd also like to announce that I purchased a plane ticket to Chicago for 3/9-3/12 so I am planning on attending the BTT. I don't have tickets left so if there are Illini fans out there with extras, please let me know.