1. Ohio State
I hate Ohio State but they have a ton of talent and a dangerous habit of winning Big Ten Championships. I don't think they run away with it though. Sullinger is short and Diebler (one of my top 5 least favorite players ever) will be impossible to replace. I think they are more guardable this year and will take more bad shots.
2. Michigan State
I considered dropping these guys but I think Brandon Wood gives them a big boost. I think they have a very strong starting five and are free of last year's bad mojo.
3. Illinois
I think Illinois just has the physical specimens to wear out some of the other Big Ten teams. Turnover ratio is going to be the key stat for Illinois but Maniscalco is going to be the key to winning close games.
4. Wisconsin
Even the Wisconsin fans think they are a bit overrated. I'm not saying this won't be a solid team, but I think their insanely low turnover percentage from last year can't be duplicated. They have some solid players but nobody on their team scares me. I won't drop them too low because Bo knows winning.
5. Michigan
I kept watching those Michigan games last year and I couldn't believe how we were losing to those guys. They return almost everyone but Darius Morris was the heart and soul of their offense and they won't be able to replace him easily. Beilein is a very good coach but I like him more in a tournament setting than over the whole season. I'd pick Michigan higher than 5th in the Big Ten Tournament and they will win an NCAA game.
6. Minnesota
I think this is another team that had bad mojo last year and will bounce back a bit this time. Mbakwe is a beast and they have a solid crew there. I think this is a team that will shock some better teams with relentless offensive rebounding and occasional 3-point barrages.
7. Purdue
Moore and Johnson were Purdue basketball for four years. Hummel is an efficient scorer but he's not going to scare anyone. The rest of the roster seems like an annoying blend of second-tier talents that just get in your jersey.
8. Northwestern
I like some of the Northwestern players but I don't think they make the NCAA Tournament this year either. They have guys who can shoot but they don't have quite enough talent to beat enough of the top-tier teams to rise in the standings.
9. Indiana
I still have no respect for what is going on at Indiana. All hopes seem to be pinned on Cody Zeller and I don't think he gets it done. They still have way too many garbage players to be a real threat. Maybe next year they get some real talent but for now the irrational exuberance of the Indiana fans keeps trying to imagine an end to their time in the wilderness. It won't be this year.
10. Iowa
I actually like what is going on at Iowa but I still don't think they have any real talent. I do like their coach and I think there is some upside potential here but not enough consistency to win many games.
11. Nebraska
I haven't heard anything good about Nebraska basketball. The only thing I can say about them is that they aren't Penn State.
12. Penn State
Yuck.
Thursday, October 27, 2011
Thursday, October 13, 2011
Pre-Season Rotation Thoughts
Here is an approximate depth chart for our basketball team:
PG - Maniscalco, Abrams, Langford
SG - Richardson, Head
SF - Paul, Bertrand
PF - Griffey, Shaw, Henry
C - Leonard, Egwu, Djimde
PG:
Maniscalco will probably be limited to 22-26 mpg because of his ankle. Abrams is the backup PG but he may not have mastered the position sufficiently at the college level yet. Langford is another option because of his passing skills, but his time will depend on Abrams' effectiveness and whether or not he can initiate the offense.
I see 2 guys in the rotation here on a regular basis.
SG:
DJ Richardson will start and has shown he can handle up to 30 mpg. However, he could have a shooting slump which would severely limit his effectiveness. Crandall Head has shown he can be a pest on defense and an energy guy that boosts the offense. So you have to give Crandall 8-12 mpg, possibly more if he blows up and starts to overshadow DJ.
I see 2 guys in the rotation here on a regular basis.
SF:
I believe Brandon Paul will get 30 mpg and will be our star player this year. He may also take some minutes at PG and SG. Bertrand certainly has some ability but the problem is that he doesn't seem to have his niche in the rotation. I see him getting some minutes early in the season but dropping out of the rotation unless he gives you something that another player can't. He is also great depth in case of injury.
I see 1 guy in the rotation here on a regular basis.
PF:
I think Tyler Griffey is our best shooter and will emerge as almost a default option to get a lot of shots in this year's offense. I don't know that he is terribly effective as a rebounder or a post defender, so that probably limits him to about 24 mpg. Mike Shaw is almost the anti-Griffey here in my mind, in that he gives you intangibles like rebounding and defense but not a lot of scoring. So he probably fills in the other 16 mpg and you can give a couple different looks depending on the situation. Myke Henry is more of a scorer if you need a smaller, quicker lineup.
I see 2 guys in the rotation here on a regular basis.
C:
I think Meyers Leonard is the starter here but he only gets about 20 mpg and he will be the player that (unfortunately) gets the most grief from the fans. Fans see 7'1" and a few highlight dunks and they want a superstar. I don't think he's there yet. I also see a lot of foul trouble. Nnanna Egwu is the backup here but after about 2 games fans will love his attitude and hustle and will be clamoring for him to start. The problem here is that he is also foul prone. Djimde is a big body that is great to have in reserve when both Leonard and Egwu get 2 fouls in the first half or other foul trouble. That will happen often but probably not more than about 4 mpg on average.
I see 2, maybe 3 guys in the rotation here on a regular basis.
In past years we have had mainly 8 man rotations but I think this year we are almost certain to have at least 9 men. Those 9 are:
Maniscalco, Abrams, Richardson, Head, Paul, Griffey, Shaw, Leonard, Egwu
Here's how I see the other 4 guys being used:
Langford - gets a few minutes here and there early in the season but hasn't quite put it together yet. I think they don't redshirt him because of concerns about PG depth, but ultimately Abrams proves to be a gamer and takes all his minutes. The Langford/Orris battle next year will be a fascinating matchup for minutes between a player with a high ceiling and one with a low floor.
Bertrand - I think he's in the rotation for a few weeks in the non-conference. He does some good things but starts to get buried behind our star players. He re-emerges later in the year when someone gets hurt or loses effectiveness. Think Crandall Head 2010-2011.
Henry - I think he has a lot of upside but just won't be able to put it together as a freshman. He'll look good in exhibitions but he's in that awkward Warren Carter role where they just can't figure out how to use him effectively as a young player, especially with weaknesses on defense. I think he disappears this year but is a starter down the road when he goes from a PF back to a SF. Or I'm totally wrong about him and he is our "out of nowhere" emerging star and makes my whole post look stupid. I'm torn because he sounded like the biggest stud in our recruiting class last spring but seemed like a non-factor in Italy. This PF thing seems like a poor fit for him.
Djimde - He reminds me of Marcus Arnold on an Illini team with a little more talent. He strikes me as the clear #3 center but there is a definite role for him. 4 mpg when we have foul trouble and a great guy to work in during garbage time. I think he is 4 years of quality depth and great insurance if Leonard and/or Egwu really blow up and go pro early. I also think he's a great "banger" to have around in practice to make sure our bigs aren't soft. Fans will like him just because we needed those attributes so much the last couple years.
PG - Maniscalco, Abrams, Langford
SG - Richardson, Head
SF - Paul, Bertrand
PF - Griffey, Shaw, Henry
C - Leonard, Egwu, Djimde
PG:
Maniscalco will probably be limited to 22-26 mpg because of his ankle. Abrams is the backup PG but he may not have mastered the position sufficiently at the college level yet. Langford is another option because of his passing skills, but his time will depend on Abrams' effectiveness and whether or not he can initiate the offense.
I see 2 guys in the rotation here on a regular basis.
SG:
DJ Richardson will start and has shown he can handle up to 30 mpg. However, he could have a shooting slump which would severely limit his effectiveness. Crandall Head has shown he can be a pest on defense and an energy guy that boosts the offense. So you have to give Crandall 8-12 mpg, possibly more if he blows up and starts to overshadow DJ.
I see 2 guys in the rotation here on a regular basis.
SF:
I believe Brandon Paul will get 30 mpg and will be our star player this year. He may also take some minutes at PG and SG. Bertrand certainly has some ability but the problem is that he doesn't seem to have his niche in the rotation. I see him getting some minutes early in the season but dropping out of the rotation unless he gives you something that another player can't. He is also great depth in case of injury.
I see 1 guy in the rotation here on a regular basis.
PF:
I think Tyler Griffey is our best shooter and will emerge as almost a default option to get a lot of shots in this year's offense. I don't know that he is terribly effective as a rebounder or a post defender, so that probably limits him to about 24 mpg. Mike Shaw is almost the anti-Griffey here in my mind, in that he gives you intangibles like rebounding and defense but not a lot of scoring. So he probably fills in the other 16 mpg and you can give a couple different looks depending on the situation. Myke Henry is more of a scorer if you need a smaller, quicker lineup.
I see 2 guys in the rotation here on a regular basis.
C:
I think Meyers Leonard is the starter here but he only gets about 20 mpg and he will be the player that (unfortunately) gets the most grief from the fans. Fans see 7'1" and a few highlight dunks and they want a superstar. I don't think he's there yet. I also see a lot of foul trouble. Nnanna Egwu is the backup here but after about 2 games fans will love his attitude and hustle and will be clamoring for him to start. The problem here is that he is also foul prone. Djimde is a big body that is great to have in reserve when both Leonard and Egwu get 2 fouls in the first half or other foul trouble. That will happen often but probably not more than about 4 mpg on average.
I see 2, maybe 3 guys in the rotation here on a regular basis.
In past years we have had mainly 8 man rotations but I think this year we are almost certain to have at least 9 men. Those 9 are:
Maniscalco, Abrams, Richardson, Head, Paul, Griffey, Shaw, Leonard, Egwu
Here's how I see the other 4 guys being used:
Langford - gets a few minutes here and there early in the season but hasn't quite put it together yet. I think they don't redshirt him because of concerns about PG depth, but ultimately Abrams proves to be a gamer and takes all his minutes. The Langford/Orris battle next year will be a fascinating matchup for minutes between a player with a high ceiling and one with a low floor.
Bertrand - I think he's in the rotation for a few weeks in the non-conference. He does some good things but starts to get buried behind our star players. He re-emerges later in the year when someone gets hurt or loses effectiveness. Think Crandall Head 2010-2011.
Henry - I think he has a lot of upside but just won't be able to put it together as a freshman. He'll look good in exhibitions but he's in that awkward Warren Carter role where they just can't figure out how to use him effectively as a young player, especially with weaknesses on defense. I think he disappears this year but is a starter down the road when he goes from a PF back to a SF. Or I'm totally wrong about him and he is our "out of nowhere" emerging star and makes my whole post look stupid. I'm torn because he sounded like the biggest stud in our recruiting class last spring but seemed like a non-factor in Italy. This PF thing seems like a poor fit for him.
Djimde - He reminds me of Marcus Arnold on an Illini team with a little more talent. He strikes me as the clear #3 center but there is a definite role for him. 4 mpg when we have foul trouble and a great guy to work in during garbage time. I think he is 4 years of quality depth and great insurance if Leonard and/or Egwu really blow up and go pro early. I also think he's a great "banger" to have around in practice to make sure our bigs aren't soft. Fans will like him just because we needed those attributes so much the last couple years.
Monday, June 6, 2011
Stat Projections
My projections for next season:
DJ Richardson - 32 mpg, 11.7 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 2.3 apg
Brandon Paul - 28 mpg, 12.3 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 2.0 apg
Meyers Leonard - 24 mpg, 8.4 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 0.6 apg
Sam Maniscalco - 24 mpg, 8.0 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 4.5 apg
Nnanna Egwu - 16 mpg, 4.7 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 0.5 apg
Tracy Abrams - 16 mpg, 5.3 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 2.7 apg
Mike Henry - 16 mpg, 4.0 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 0.5 apg
Tyler Griffey - 16 mpg, 4.0 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 0.2 apg
Mike Shaw - 16 mpg, 3.6 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 0.4 apg
Crandall Head - 12 mpg, 6.0 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 1.2 apg
Joe Bertrand - bench
Devin Langford - bench
Ibrahima Djimde - bench
Team - 3.2 rpg
Total - 200 mpg, 68.0 ppg, 34.4 rpg, 14.9 apg
DJ Richardson - 32 mpg, 11.7 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 2.3 apg
Brandon Paul - 28 mpg, 12.3 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 2.0 apg
Meyers Leonard - 24 mpg, 8.4 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 0.6 apg
Sam Maniscalco - 24 mpg, 8.0 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 4.5 apg
Nnanna Egwu - 16 mpg, 4.7 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 0.5 apg
Tracy Abrams - 16 mpg, 5.3 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 2.7 apg
Mike Henry - 16 mpg, 4.0 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 0.5 apg
Tyler Griffey - 16 mpg, 4.0 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 0.2 apg
Mike Shaw - 16 mpg, 3.6 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 0.4 apg
Crandall Head - 12 mpg, 6.0 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 1.2 apg
Joe Bertrand - bench
Devin Langford - bench
Ibrahima Djimde - bench
Team - 3.2 rpg
Total - 200 mpg, 68.0 ppg, 34.4 rpg, 14.9 apg
Tuesday, March 8, 2011
Dunk Tracker
Total (31 games) - 107
(Davis 36, Tisdale 25, Leonard 13, Paul 12, Richmond 12, Cole 3, Richardson 3, Griffey 1, Head 1, Bertrand 1)
vs. Indiana
(Davis 1 Leonard 1 Richmond 1 Bertrand 1)
vs. Purdue
0
vs. Iowa
6 (Richardson 1 Tisdale 3 Davis 2)
vs. Ohio State
4 (Tisdale 1 Davis 2 Richmond 1)
vs. Michigan State
1 (Paul 1)
vs. Michigan
2 (Richardson 1 Tisdale 1)
vs. Purdue
5 (Davis 2 Paul 1 Tisdale 2)
vs. Minnesota
1 (Davis 1)
vs. Northwestern
5 (Tisdale 1 Davis 2 Leonard 1 Richmond 1)
vs. Penn State
6 (Davis 5 Tisdale 1)
vs. Indiana
3 (Davis 1 Cole 1 Richmond 1)
vs. Ohio State
3 (Leonard 1 Davis 1 Tisdale 1)
vs. Michigan State
3 (Richmond 2 Davis 1)
vs. Wisconsion
0
vs. Penn State
3 (Tisdale 1 Paul 1 Davis 1)
vs. Northwestern
6 (Tisdale 2 Leonard 2 Davis 1 Head 1)
vs. Wisconsin
3 (Cole 1 Davis 1 Leonard 1)
vs. Iowa
3 (Tisdale 1 Davis 2)
vs. Missouri
2 (Tisdale 2 )
vs. UIC
2 (Richardson 1 Leonard 1)
vs. Northern Colorado
4 (Davis 2 Richmond 1 Griffey 1)
vs. Oakland
2 (Richmond 2)
vs. Gonzaga
2 (Davis 1, Cole 1)
vs. North Carolina
5 (Davis 3, Richmond 1, Leonard 1)
vs. WMU
4 (Davis 1, Tisdale 1, Paul 1, Richmond 1)
vs. Yale
8 (Paul 3, Tisdale 2, Leonard 2, Davis 1)
vs. Maryland
3 (Leonard 2, Davis 1)
vs. Texas
4 (Tisdale 2, Paul 1, Richmond 1)
vs. SIU
7 (Davis 3, Tisdale 2, Paul 1, Leonard 1)
vs. Toledo
5 (Paul 3, Tisdale 2)
vs. UC Irvine
1 (Davis 1)
Total - 31 games
(Davis 36, Tisdale 25, Leonard 13, Paul 12, Richmond 12, Cole 3, Richardson 3, Griffey 1, Head 1, Bertrand 1)
vs. Indiana
(Davis 1 Leonard 1 Richmond 1 Bertrand 1)
vs. Purdue
0
vs. Iowa
6 (Richardson 1 Tisdale 3 Davis 2)
vs. Ohio State
4 (Tisdale 1 Davis 2 Richmond 1)
vs. Michigan State
1 (Paul 1)
vs. Michigan
2 (Richardson 1 Tisdale 1)
vs. Purdue
5 (Davis 2 Paul 1 Tisdale 2)
vs. Minnesota
1 (Davis 1)
vs. Northwestern
5 (Tisdale 1 Davis 2 Leonard 1 Richmond 1)
vs. Penn State
6 (Davis 5 Tisdale 1)
vs. Indiana
3 (Davis 1 Cole 1 Richmond 1)
vs. Ohio State
3 (Leonard 1 Davis 1 Tisdale 1)
vs. Michigan State
3 (Richmond 2 Davis 1)
vs. Wisconsion
0
vs. Penn State
3 (Tisdale 1 Paul 1 Davis 1)
vs. Northwestern
6 (Tisdale 2 Leonard 2 Davis 1 Head 1)
vs. Wisconsin
3 (Cole 1 Davis 1 Leonard 1)
vs. Iowa
3 (Tisdale 1 Davis 2)
vs. Missouri
2 (Tisdale 2 )
vs. UIC
2 (Richardson 1 Leonard 1)
vs. Northern Colorado
4 (Davis 2 Richmond 1 Griffey 1)
vs. Oakland
2 (Richmond 2)
vs. Gonzaga
2 (Davis 1, Cole 1)
vs. North Carolina
5 (Davis 3, Richmond 1, Leonard 1)
vs. WMU
4 (Davis 1, Tisdale 1, Paul 1, Richmond 1)
vs. Yale
8 (Paul 3, Tisdale 2, Leonard 2, Davis 1)
vs. Maryland
3 (Leonard 2, Davis 1)
vs. Texas
4 (Tisdale 2, Paul 1, Richmond 1)
vs. SIU
7 (Davis 3, Tisdale 2, Paul 1, Leonard 1)
vs. Toledo
5 (Paul 3, Tisdale 2)
vs. UC Irvine
1 (Davis 1)
Total - 31 games
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