Dunk Tracker

vs. Northern Colorado
4 (Davis 2 Richmond 1 Griffey 1)
vs. Oakland
2 (Richmond 2)
vs. Gonzaga
2 (Davis 1, Cole 1)
vs. North Carolina
5 (Davis 3, Richmond 1, Leonard 1)
vs. WMU
4 (Davis 1, Tisdale 1, Paul 1, Richmond 1)
vs. Yale
8 (Paul 3, Tisdale 2, Leonard 2, Davis 1)
vs. Maryland
3 (Leonard 2, Davis 1)
vs. Texas
4 (Tisdale 2, Paul 1, Richmond 1)
vs. SIU
7 (Davis 3, Tisdale 2, Paul 1, Leonard 1)
vs. Toledo
5 (Paul 3, Tisdale 2)
vs. UC Irvine
1 (Davis 1)

Total - 11 games
45 (Davis 13, Paul 9, Tisdale 9, Leonard 6, Richmond 6, Cole 1, Griffey 1)

Dunk Tracker (after Gonzaga)

vs. Gonzaga
2 (Davis 1, Cole 1)
vs. North Carolina
5 (Davis 3, Richmond 1, Leonard 1)
vs. WMU
4 (Davis 1, Tisdale 1, Paul 1, Richmond 1)
vs. Yale
8 (Paul 3, Tisdale 2, Leonard 2, Davis 1)
vs. Maryland
3 (Leonard 2, Davis 1)
vs. Texas
4 (Tisdale 2, Paul 1, Richmond 1)
vs. SIU
7 (Davis 3, Tisdale 2, Paul 1, Leonard 1)
vs. Toledo
5 (Paul 3, Tisdale 2)
vs. UC Irvine
1 (Davis 1)

Total - 9 games
39 (Davis 11, Paul 9, Tisdale 9, Leonard 6, Richmond 3, Cole 1)

Dunk Tracker

vs. North Carolina
5 (Davis 3, Richmond 1, Leonard 1)
vs. WMU
4 (Davis 1, Tisdale 1, Paul 1, Richmond 1)
vs. Yale
8 (Paul 3, Tisdale 2, Leonard 2, Davis 1)
vs. Maryland
3 (Leonard 2, Davis 1)
vs. Texas
4 (Tisdale 2, Paul 1, Richmond 1)
vs. SIU
7 (Davis 3, Tisdale 2, Paul 1, Leonard 1)
vs. Toledo
5 (Paul 3, Tisdale 2)
vs. UC Irvine
1 (Davis 1)

Total - 6 games
37 (Davis 10, Paul 9, Tisdale 9, Leonard 6, Richmond 3)

Preseason Rotation Projection

Here's last year's rotation first (total minutes divided by 36.5 games)

McCamey - 34.0
Davis - 31.8
Richardson - 30.5
Tisdale - 27.6
Cole - 21.0
Paul - 18.7
Jordan - 12.4
Keller - 10.9
Griffey - 7.4
Legion - 3.0
Semrau - 1.8
Simpson - 0.5
Chisholm - 0.4

Total - 200.0

We are returning 171.0 mpg (roughly 4.25 out of 5 spots). That leaves 29.0 mpg open to divide between 4 freshmen (Richmond, Head, Leonard, and Bertrand) so the battle for playing time is going to be fierce. It's clear that returning players aren't resting on their laurels because all 4 new players have talent and are going to be trying to take their minutes. Some guys had to play more than they should have because of a lack of depth. I'm guessing that won't be a problem this year.

Here's how I think it plays out. My projection rounds to the nearest 4 mpg (TV timeout) since it's just a rough estimate and I don't want to worry about garbage time (hopefully we'll have a lot of that this year!)

*McCamey - 32 mpg
*Davis - 28 mpg
*Richardson - 28 mpg
*Tisdale - 28 mpg
*Richmond - 24 mpg
Paul - 20 mpg
Griffey - 12 mpg
Cole - 8 mpg
Head - 8 mpg
Leonard - 8 mpg
Bertrand - 4 mpg

Usually Weber will pare his rotation down to 8 or 9 guys by the end of the year. We have 7 returning players and 4 new players. 6 of the 7 are locks for the rotation with Cole being the only guy who could get squeezed out by a more talented player. However, it would be foolish to write him off too soon. Crandall Head and Joe Bertrand will both be gunning for his minutes and if they can defend and find some way to score then they might get them. I think Leonard could emerge by the end of the season and take that last rotation spot since he is a unique talent and our only true backup center. If anyone gets hurt there is plenty of depth and guys are just waiting for their chance to play. With only 4 upperclassmen on the roster, the 7 young guns will give us an exciting glimpse of future Illini basketball teams that will hope to dominate the Big Ten.

'09-'10 Rotation Review

I'm going back to my last post to see how the rotation compared to my preseason prediction.

My projection is going to round to the  nearest 4 minutes just for simplicity and also so I don't have to worry
about garbage time. Here goes:

*McCamey - 28 mpg
Actual - 34.0 mpg
I underestimated McCamey's minutes because he was forced into extra time because we basically
had no backup PG.
*Davis - 28 mpg
Actual - 31.8 mpg
I underestimated Davis's minutes because Stan Simpson and Richard Semrau were non-factors and
Dominique Keller regressed as a senior.
*Tisdale - 24 mpg
Actual - 27.6 mpg
Tisdale improved a lot in terms of stamina and consistency so he earned extra minutes.  We also
had less depth than expected at the center position.
*Richardson - 24 mpg
Actual - 30.5 mpg
DJ Richardson was an unexpectedly awesome 3-point shooter.  He also defended well so Weber
rewarded him with tons of minutes.  We also had the unexpected Legion implosion which changed our
entire backcourt rotation.
*Legion - 24 mpg
Actual - 3.0 mpg
Alex Legion seemed like a good kid but he was an unbelievable flameout at Illinois last season.
He just never got it going and was incredibly inefficient.
Paul - 20 mpg
Actual - 18.7 mpg
I was pretty close with this one.  Paul showed flashes and I still love his potential, but he
took and missed way too many shots from long range.  He has a ton of room for improvement when
it comes to efficiency.  I have faith in him not turning into Alex Legion Jr.
Keller - 16 mpg
Actual - 10.9 mpg
Keller just wouldn't rebound or defend.  He was phased out as the season went on because he
didn't have a team-first attitude.  Addition by subtraction this year?
Griffey - 8 mpg
Actual - 7.4 mpg
I think Tyler Griffey is a great player and looked really good as a freshman.  The dude can
really shoot.  It's amazing.  He couldn't defend the rim but if he figures that out he will be a
total stud.  I think Weber's biggest regret from last year was not getting Griffey more PT.
Jordan - 8 mpg
Actual - 12.4 mpg
Jeff Jordan is a great kid and gave us everything he had.  I was amazed at how many minutes he
got despite not being able to shoot or really initiate the offense other than taking the ball up
the court.  Still, he was the closest thing we had to a backup PG and the whole Jordan thing was
way cool.
Cole - 8 mpg
Actual - 21.0 mpg
Bill Cole was the biggest beneficiary of the Alex Legion implosion.  He basically did what Legion
was supposed to do - make some 3's and try really hard.  I love his floorburn attitude and his
leadership.  He may be the least talented guy on our team next year but he will work hard and
find a way to make a positive impact and Weber loves to reward those guys with playing time.
Bertrand - 4 mpg
Actual - 0 mpg
I was saddened by Joe Bertrand's injury.  Fortunately he was able to take a redshirt year and
apparently made the most of it.  Now he is strong enough to compete and I want to see him get
crazy in the open court with that 45" vertical.
Simpson - 4 mpg
Actual - 0.5 mpg
Stan Simpson didn't take care of business and actually got buried below Bubba Chisholm on the
depth chart.  We needed someone with his talents but he never stepped up.  Now we'll always
wonder what might have been.  Say hi to Brian Carlwell for us.
Semrau - 4 mpg
Actual - 1.8 mpg
I don't know exactly where things went wrong.  I think Rich got a little beat up his freshman year
and lost his love for the game.  He kept his nose clean and gave what he could.  Tyler Griffey is
what I thought Rich Semrau would be.