Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Box Score Breakdown - First 2 Games

If you are like me, chances are you missed some or all of the online feeds for the first two Illini games so you only have a few postgame reports and two box scores to look at after two games. The TV situation for the Vanderbilt game is even worse (FSN Midwest isn't exactly a national cable network). So while we may not be 100% sure what Dominique Keller or Bubba Chisholm looks like, we do know that the Illini are 2-0 and that stats are available on fightingillini.com. So let's see what has happened through two games.

Minutes per game:
Since I posted a guess at the early rotation, let's see where there are significant deviations (>4 mpg) from what I expected. It turns out there are only two, and they are related:
Jeff Jordan (15.5 mpg, 8 mpg expected) and Calvin Brock (15.5 mpg, 24 mpg expected). Although MJ in the house didn't hurt JJ's minutes, I suspect that the real story here is the lack of impact Brock is having on the game. He is known for inconsistent effort, and 1-8 shooting is not going to cut it from him. Jeff Jordan is no chump, and I expect that Coach Weber will reward him with starts and minutes whenever one of the other guards does not live up to his high standards. Otherwise things are about as expected in terms of minutes. It is interesting to see Brock starting in place of McCamey, but I suspect that is to motivate Demetri to live up to his potential.

FG%
Trent Meacham is shooting over 61%, which is excellent for a guard. He may be the top performer so far. Mike Davis is also solid at 60% which means he is efficient at the PF spot. We are getting horrible shooting from our centers, which is a real problem. Tisdale is shooting 29% and Semrau is even worse at 20%. These wouldn't be acceptable numbers if they were Frazier's 3PT%, but coming from centers they are atrocious. This should be more like 60%. Unless this improves quickly, I'd expect to see a lot more of Davis at center with Keller or Cole at PF. Maybe you even play Stan Simpson if you get desperate. The team is shooting 44% (an okay number), which means that at least the right people are taking most of the shots.

3PT%
Meacham and McCamey each have 9 3FGA, Frazier has 4, and nobody else has more than 1. That is very good to see, as lazy or desperate long-range chucking from non-shooters could easily sink this team (especially since they aren't making any). McCamey is shooting 33% from 3 (a reasonable number for 9 attempts) and Meacham is scorching at 67%. He pulls our team average up to 39%, which is solid.

FT%
Free throws were the bane of the '07-'08 Illini's existence, and they shot a miserable 60.8%, with no player above 75% from the line. That was absurd, and with so many close games (and missed front ends of 1-and-1's) it added up to several agonizing defeats. Pruitt and Randle were the main offenders here, so improvement was expected this season. So far we are shooting a healthy 70% from the line, which is a healthy improvement. Our top 9 players are shooting a combined 74%, which is even more encouraging. Perhaps the most amazing stat is that Chester Frazier is on pace to make 64 free throws this year, as opposed to only 27 last year. That one sentence should give all Illini fans hope for the season.

Rebounds
The Illini are outrebounding their opponents 81-65 (8 rpg). Our front line (Tisdale, Semrau, Davis, Keller) are averaging the following #'s of rebounds per 40 minutes:
Tisdale - 9
Semrau - 13.3
Davis - 14.3
Keller - 14

Compare those numbers to our top 4 rotation rebounders last year:
Pruitt - 10.8
Randle - 8.7
Alexander - 8.5
Davis - 6.9

A few observations from this data:

*Frazier doesn't really rebound at a higher rate than the bigs. It is just that he rebounds well for a guard and plays so many more minutes per game than most of the bigs. He is not in the top 4 in terms of rebounds per 40 minutes in either season.

*We lost our top 3 rebounders from last season, so it was fair to wonder if we could rebound effectively this year.

*Our rebounding numbers are far superior so far this season, but it is tough to compare given that so far we've only had 2 games against low-major teams without much of an inside presence.

*Davis is a good rebounder -- better than Tisdale. I suspect Tisdale's rebounding struggles are what made most people question our rebounding ability for the season. Both Keller and Semrau are new to the rotation this year and appear to be solid rebounders. Tisdale is the only real weak link here, but he only gets 20 mpg so I think any softness on his part will be compensated for by Frazier's rebounding. Expect us to be just fine on the boards this year.

Fouls:
No Illini player has more than 6 fouls through 2 games. That suggests that foul trouble will not be a major factor this year, which is certainly encouraging. Usually this is only a big concern when you have a dominant big man (seniors like Brian Cook or Robert Archibald) or if you are starting Brian Randle on your team.

I'm not Brumby or Bruce Weber, so I won't try to analyze pace or defense. I imagine both will be similar to last season, although it will be interesting to see how our interior defense performs with less bulk but more shot-blocking.

After this analysis, I'd say there are three keys to the Vanderbilt game, and they are all related and have to do with shooting.

*The right players have to take the shots. Mike Davis needs a steady diet of mid-range shots and Meacham and McCamey should be the only 3-point shooters. Everyone else should be trying to attack the rim and get to the line.

*Either Meacham or McCamey to be hot from 3. I'm talking >50% and at least 5 attempts. Otherwise we likely don't break 60.

*We need improved production from the center position. Tisdale and Semrau average 34 minutes, 11 shots, and 4 FTA combined. Given that, we need them to total 13-14 or more points (instead of their lame 8.5 combined average). To give you an idea of the importance of 5 points, if you add 5 ppg in regulation to last year's team we go from 16-19 to 23-12, which is the difference between the '07-'08 nightmare and the decent '06-'07 season.

While I may have to resort to smoke signals to follow Thursday's game vs. Vanderbilt, I will be rooting hard for a fun Illini team and hoping for an upset victory!

Wednesday, November 12, 2008

Lemme Lemme Upgrade Ya

Hooray! Signing Day has arrived! Illinois signs four outstanding players: DJ Richardson, Brandon Paul, Joseph Bertrand, and Tyler Griffey. I think the first two will play a lot next year and the other two will be key members of the rotation as upperclassmen.

I don't watch HS basketball and I'm not any good at video scouting, etc. So in order to channel my excitement I will engage in rampant speculation as to next year's rotation. I've never seen any of the four signees or Alex Legion in any kind of Illini game action, so I hope any readers will accept that I most likely don't know what I'm doing here. That's never stopped me before, so let's go!

I've already mentioned the five players we are adding to the roster next year (not counting walk-ons), but we will be losing a lot of players. Here is where the title comes in, as you will quickly see how we are getting a massive upgrade at maybe all five spots.

Trent Meacham will be replaced by Brandon Paul
Calvin Brock will be replaced by Joseph Bertrand
Chester Frazier will be replaced by DJ Richardson
CJ Jackson will be replaced by Tyler Griffey
Alex Legion will be eligible.

With that in mind, let me guess at next year's rotation (in a similar format to the previous post):

Starters: (128 mpg combined)
Demetri McCamey - 28 mpg
DJ Richardson - 28 mpg
Alex Legion - 28 mpg
Mike Davis - 24 mpg
Mike Tisdale - 20 mpg

Bench: (72 mpg combined)
Brandon Paul - 24 mpg
Bill Cole - 12 mpg
Richard Semrau - 12 mpg
Dominique Keller - 12 mpg
Stan Simpson - 12 mpg

Not Playing:
Joseph Bertrand (redshirt)
Tyler Griffey (redshirt)
Jeff Jordan (bench)

I have both Bertrand and Griffey redshirting but either one of them could play and contribute. How does it sort by position?

PG (1): McCamey (28), Richardson (12)
SG (2): Richardson (16), Paul (24)
SF (3): Legion (28), Cole (12)
PF (4): Davis (24), Keller (12), Simpson (4)
C (5): Tisdale (20), Semrau (12), Simpson (8)

Now that is an NCAA Tournament team, with quality talent at every position and a deep bench.

(Update to previous post: @Vandy is tape-delayed on FCS-Atlantic and it looks like all the South Padre games will be on that channel as well, assuming we are in the South Padre final.)

Monday, November 10, 2008

Illinois Basketball 2008-2009: Month 1 Preview

Illinois basketball has 31 regular season games scheduled. Normally one would divide the season into non-conference and conference games, but given that we are expecting to add Alex Legion on December 20th, I thought it would make more sense to look first at the 10 games we play without him. Here they are:

11/14 vs. Eastern Washington
11/16 vs. Texas A&M - Corpus Christi
11/20 @ Vanderbilt
11/23 vs. Jackson State
11/28 vs. Kent State (South Padre)
11/29 vs. Texas A&M or Tulsa (South Padre)
12/02 vs. Clemson (ACC/Big Ten Challenge)
12/06 vs. Georgia (United Center)
12/08 vs. Hawaii
12/10 vs. Chicago State

I have no idea how we will do against this slate, but it looks like there are five cupcakes and five challenges. The five cupcakes are Eastern Washington, Tex. A&M - CC, Jackson State, Hawaii, and Chicago State -- all home games against weaker teams. The five challenges include one road game, two neutral site games in South Padre, the ACC/B10 challenge, and the United Center game.

There are also some challenges for us loyal viewers. Four games will be easy for me to watch: games against Jackson State and Hawaii are on the BTN, the Georgia game is on ESPNU, and the Clemson game is on ESPN2. The Eastern Washington and Chicago State games are on bigtennetwork.com, which is annoying but at least freely available nationwide. The remaining four are challenges - @Vandy is on FSN Midwest (I don't live in the Midwest!), Kent State is on Fox College Sports (I didn't even know that was a channel), and the broadcasts for the 11/16 and 11/29 games are not yet announced. Given that 11/16 is only six days away, I am concerned that game may not be broadcast at all. So perhaps we won't be seeing much of the Illini without Alex Legion.

Given that I may have to use my imagination a lot in the next month, let me try to imagine a good rotation for the first 10 games. Bear in mind that I have only seen about 1.3 exhibition games (and not the O&B scrimmage), so this is somewhat poorly-educated speculation. What I will do is try to dole out 200 minutes of playing time in 4 minute increments, ignoring garbage time.

Starters: (136 mpg combined)
Demetri McCamey - 32 mpg
Trent Meacham - 28 mpg
Chester Frazier - 32 mpg
Mike Davis - 24 mpg
Mike Tisdale - 20 mpg

Bench: (64 mpg combined)
Calvin Brock - 24 mpg
Richard Semrau - 16 mpg
Dominique Keller - 12 mpg
Jeff Jordan - 8 mpg
Bill Cole - 4 mpg

Not Playing:
Stan Simpson (redshirt)
Alex Legion (ineligible)
C.J. Jackson (bench)

How would this sort by position? Let's assume that McCamey and Jordan are always at the 1 and Tisdale and Semrau are always at the 5. I'm also thinking that Meacham is always a 2 and Keller and Cole are always at the 4. That leaves three hybrid players, with Frazier as a 2/3, Brock as a 3/4, and Davis as a 4/5.

PG (1): McCamey (32), Jordan (8)
SG (2): Meacham (28), Frazier (12)
SF (3): Frazier (20), Brock (20)
PF (4): Davis (20), Keller (12), Brock (4), Cole (4)
C (5): Tisdale (20), Semrau (16), Davis (4)

My hope is that Brock starting at PF was an exhibition gimmick and we don't see him there more than 4 mpg. It made sense for the exhibitions, with an open competition between the big men and more minutes available for Jeff Jordan. In real games though we don't have much guard depth so Brock will need to spend most of his time at the 3. Things could get really crazy if someone gets hurt or in very early foul trouble. I'm trying not to think about that.

I think it is safe to say that Alex Legion will have plenty of playing time available for him immediately once he becomes eligible. There are also plenty of opportunities for next year's freshmen, but that sounds like a topic for Wednesday...

Sidebar: A few housekeeping notes

I have been inspired by a user comment to get this blog up and running again. A few things have changed since my last post in April, so let me give some background for the new perspective that you will see in this blog.

*I am now a homeowner. Given that I am still single (but not available...sorry ladies =P), that means that I can put top priority on the viewing of Illini sports events in the comfort of my own home (including on the Big Ten Network).

*On August 1st, Brumby decided to kill the Illiniboard. That IB is now pretty much just a bunch of Weber haters and political malcontents, so my TouchdownRejus posts are going to diminish and my year-long hiatus from the Scout board is over. Kudos to frankfrangie and JackLyman for finally putting together a high-quality operation over there. I also have a membership with Rivals and for my money Brad Sturdy is still the best source of insider basketball info.

*Illinois football has ripped out my heart and stomped on it five times this season. That team is dead to me until further notice, with the notable exception of my man Rejus Benn, who is still a godsend. I also must advocate the immediate resignation of Ron Guenther, as there is no path forward on the basketball renovation/new arena and the football scheduling is killing us.

*I will be pulling for my man Dee Brown on my local Washington Wizards team. They are perhaps the worst team in the NBA right now but I will watch for his sake.

*Jamar Smith, Brian Carlwell, and Rodney Alexander are all no longer members of the Illini basketball team. I wish them well in life but I won't be looking back or pondering any what-ifs with those players this basketball season. I will say that Brian Randle was one of my favorite players and I will miss him.

*Everyone knows that this Illinois basketball team isn't exactly loaded with talent and we are eagerly anticipating the four new players in our solid 2009 recruiting class. Our three recruits in 2010 may be even better and we are back on the upswing. The goal this year is to lay the foundation for the future and to erase the painful memories of 19 losses, awful shooting, poor team chemistry, and embarrassing off-court incidents from the last year. One notable milestone during the season will be the on-court debut of Alex Legion (expected) on December 20th.

*I am going to take that future-oriented approach and thus my theme for basketball this year will be: Illini Basketball: The Foundation. I'm going to try to avoid projecting future wins and losses (unlike what I've done in past seasons) and not stress out over the inevitable ups and downs. I'm also going to avoid the long-standing debate over Weber's job performance. Analysis will focus on younger players, the overall team dynamic, and long-term trends. I will try to be optimistic about our players' potential but I won't drink Kool Aid when it comes to ugly realities on the court.

*Numbers don't lie. I'm much more mathematician than basketball guru. I won't calculate efficiency scores but I will study the box scores and cumulative statistics. I'm also a seasoned observer of sports and try to give unbiased observations without an agenda. I will admit that I am pulling for Rich Semrau and don't fully understand Bill Cole's role on this team. Otherwise I am pretty fair-minded and won't take the intellectually lazy approach and blame everything on Chester Frazier (who is almost never the worst player on the court).

*Illinois basketball season starts on November 14th and I can't wait!

Illinois-Lewis Exhibition in-game observations:

Live streaming video is much better this week than trying to watch archived video after the game.

*Small lineup not getting nearly enough penetration early. Brock is a nice offensive rebounder though.

*The Semrau-Davis combo is a huge lift. More active defensive presence and they really add a lot of mojo to the motion offense.

*Players seem more decisive this year. I think with there is a greater sense of confidence and purpose. I also like how they seem to react better to Weber's in-game coaching. I really like how when we have a good shot, we take it.

*I'm not sure about the double-team on the perimeter. It's not as bad as last year but it quickly becomes a liability if things break down and the other team gets an unguarded shot.

*I think our rebounding is ok. We get the ones we should get.

*Keller does some odd things. He's not going to be a starter.

*Cold shooting in the first half. Missed 3's and FT's not encouraging.

*We look infinitely better on the fast break this year than last year. It's not 2005 vintage but it actually gets us points instead of turnovers. Hugely encouraging sign.

*One really awful sequence where we don't secure some rebounds and they get a 3.

*Davis should be our starting PF.

*Sudden burst of energy in the second half extends the lead to double digits. I feel like we are doing the right things and if we just execute a little better we will be a solid team.

*Simpson is a good-looking player but they are exploiting him on defense.

*Meacham has to hit the open 3. I will be happy when we can plug in Legion in place of a cold Meacham.

*Disturbing Lewis run as our defense really breaks down.

*Ugly stretch and Davis misses the front end of the one-and-one. I sense that Illinois fans are not going to be happy after this game. Defense has been really weak and Lewis has gotten lots of open shots.

*Frazier and Meacham are absolutely killing us on offense. I want to see how this team responds in a tight game compared to last year.

*McCamey is the right guy to be taking big shots at the end of the game.

*Lewis is not a bad team, so I'm not going to freak out about a 62-56 win. I'm sure others will not be as content.