Weber Job Approval

July '07 results:

55% Yes
34% No
11% Unsure

427 votes (InsideIllini)

Weber Job Approval

June '07 results:

76% Yes
15% No
9% Unsure

454 votes (InsideIllini)

Updated Recruiting Wishlist

2008:

Mike Dunigan
Matt Humphery
Scott Suggs

(Iman Shumpert)
(DeAndre Liggins)
(Darius Miller)

2009:

Joseph Bertrand
Tyler Griffey

(D'Mitri Riggs)
(DJ Richardson)
(Marcus Jordan)

Illini Legacies

Congratulations to Bruce Weber and Illinois for landing Jeff Jordan as a preferred walk-on. The kid can really play and the Jordan name is special in Illinois. Congratulations to Jeff and I hope he has a great college experience. Sometimes when you get a player, you get a nice family connection. DJ Richardson, Marcus Jordan, DeAndre McCamey, and Crandall Head are all '09 or '10 players that are related to Illini players or recruits.
I think we could land them all and have some awesome classes. Here are my preferences for the '08, '09, and '10 classes (assuming Jamar is back and CJ is a football player).

2008:
DeAndre Liggins (PG/SF)
Michael Dunigan (PF/C)

*Other '08 targets are Matt Humphrey, Verdell Jones, Lewis Jackson, Darius Miller, Iman Shumpert, Josh Crittle, and Stan Simpson (not sure about that last one). You could plug in Shumpert for Liggins and I would be fine with that too.

2009:
Marcus Jordan (SG)
DJ Richardson (SG/SF)
Tyler Griffey (PF)

*I also like Joseph Bertrand and Jordan Prosser in 2009, plus a forward from Texas whose name escapes me at the moment.

2010:
Jereme Richmond (PF/anywhere he wants)
DeAndre McCamey (PG)
Crandall Head (SG/SF)

*There are several other studs in this class that I like but it's too early to get specific.

Here is the rotation for the next 4 years, in my scenario:

'07-'08

PG Frazier/McCamey
SG Smith/Watkins/Jordan
SF Alexander/Brock
PF Randle/Semrau
C Pruitt/Carlwell

RS: Cole, Tisdale

'08-'09

PG McCamey/Frazier/Liggins
SG Smith/Watkins/Jordan
SF Alexander/Brock
PF Semrau/Cole
C Carlwell/Tisdale

RS: Dunigan

'09-'10

PG McCamey/Jordan
SG Watkins/Jordan
SF Liggins/Richardson
PF Semrau/Cole
C Carlwell/Tisdale/Dunigan

RS: Griffey

'10-'11

PG McCamey/McCamey/Jordan
SG Watkins/Jordan/Head
SF Liggins/Richardson
PF Richmond/Semrau/Cole
C Tisdale/Dunigan/Griffey

The '10-'11 roster would be the scariest collection of talent in Illini history.

Rodney Alexander Commits!

Great get by Bruce Weber and the staff. I'm excited!

We have two scholarships available for 2008 and my top two choices (at the moment) are DeAndre Liggins and Michael Dunigan. I also like Iman Shumpert and Scott Suggs, plus a few out-of-state guys that we are in on.

Let me update the projected rotation from a few days ago (taking into account new analysis):

Starters:
JR Frazier (24)
JR Smith (32)
JR Brock (20)
SR Randle (24)
SR Pruitt (32)

Bench:
FR McCamey (16)
FR Watkins (12)
JR Alexander (16)
FR Semrau (12)
SO Carlwell (12)


Meacham (0)
Holdren (0)
Jackson (0)
Wise (0)
Tisdale (RS)
Cole (RS)

Projected 2007-2008 rotation

Here's what I would do (for now assuming that our '07 class is complete):

Starters:
JR Frazier (24)
JR Smith (32)
JR Brock (24)
SR Randle (28)
SR Pruitt (32)

Bench:
FR McCamey (16)
FR Watkins (16)
SO Carlwell (12)
FR Semrau (16)

Meacham (0)
Holdren (0)
Jackson (0)
Wise (0)
Tisdale (RS)
Cole (RS)

*If we get Alexander, he gets 4 minutes each from Brock, Watkins, and Semrau for a total of 12 minutes.
**If Jamar is unavailable for the season, his minutes go to Watkins (8), McCamey (4), Meacham (4), Semrau (8), and Tisdale (8), with Randle starting at the 3 and Semrau at the 4.
I recommend distributing PT in 4-minute increments, since it corresponds to TV timeouts and keeps things much simpler.

Here's a year-to-year (using our '07 NCAA Tournament roster) comparison at every position if we're healthy, Jamar is back, and we get Alexander.

1: Frazier will be improved over a year ago because of health and experience. McCamey is a huge upgrade at backup PG over McBride/Meacham.
2: A healthy Jamar Smith should match McBride's offense but will be a big step down defensively. Q will pick up the slack as a better backup option on both sides of the court than Meacham or a tired McBride.
3: Brock as a junior will be a slight downgrade on offense, defense, and rebounding from a sluggish Randle. Randle/Watkins/Alexander will be slightly better than last year's backups (mostly Brock).
4: A healthy Randle will be very effective at PF and should be about as good overall as Carter was last season. Semrau/Carlwell/Alexander will be a small upgrade over Arnold/Randle backing up the PF spot.
5: Pruitt as a senior should be significantly better than Pruitt as a junior. Carlwell will be a big upgrade over Arnold as a backup center.

Summary:
1: Big improvement
2: Slight dropoff/even
3: Slight dropoff/even
4: Even/slight improvement
5: Big improvement

Net result should be improvement from ~#44 in the country to #24-32 in the country.

I'm thrilled that Watkins signed a LOI with us and I hope we can get Rodney Alexander within a week to finish up our '07 class.

The Seven

The following scholarship players are slated to be on our 2010-2011 roster:
Richard Semrau (RS-SR) PF
Demetri McCamey (SR) PG
Quinton Watkins (SR) SG
Bill Cole (RS-JR?) PF
Mike Tisdale (RS-JR?) C
Jereme Richmond (FR) SF

We have 13 rides so that leaves seven players in the next 3* classes.
[*I have no idea what is going on with the last 2007 ride but I'm going to assume for the moment that it is not going to a 4-year player and will be available by 2010.]

Say what you will about Weber's recruiting, but I think he can get 7 guys in 3 years. Here's how I would do it (the order is in terms of priority/gameplan, not necessarily commit dates):

2 in 2008
2 in 2009
3 in 2010

The good news is that the 2010 class is loaded. The great news is that we have some awesome connections in that very class. First, though, I'd lock up this guy for 2009

1) DJ Richardson - 2009 - SG
With the Peoria and Jamar Smith connection, no reason not to pencil him in as the logical successor to Jamar Smith. Interest is mutual and this should happen sooner rather than later.

Then we need our guards of the future to continue the Illinois legacy.

2) DeAndre McCamey - 2010 - PG
3) Crandall Head - 2010 - SG
That was easy. Both guys can play and both have outstanding Illini for older brothers. I got my brother to go to Illinois and so can Luther and Demetri.

If we want Weber to survive until the 2009 and 2010 classes, we're going to need some help on the wing.

4) Scott Suggs - 2008 SG/SF
This guy is our #1 target for the 2008 class and we've been all over him for a long time. There is some Chicago/Illinois connection there and I'm going to rely on Weber to seal the deal this summer. [I'd also be plenty happy with Iman Shumpert here...the kid can play and his name is I-man...just a natural!]

I know what you are thinking. Where's the beef? Well, it's harder to predict big men because they tend to develop later. Still, I think I have some answers there as well.

5) Michael Dunigan - 2008 PF/C
I haven't heard stellar reviews lately, but the potential is there and I think this guy is the perfect guy to take Pruitt's ride when he leaves. It's time to get somebody out of Chicago and I think there is strong mutual interest here as well.

6) Jordan Prosser OR Tyler Griffey - 2009 PF
Time to go to our wheelhouse...big white guys =) We need some big boys to develop so they can step up after Semrau, Cole, and Tisdale are done. I'll admit I don't know the difference between these two guys, so I'll take either one on a first-come, first-served basis. I have faith in our staff when it comes to landing big white guys =P

7) DeShaun Thomas or SOMEONE AMAZING - 2010 ??
There really isn't anybody on our radar for '08 or '09 who is going to be a Final Four or National Championship difference maker. However, if you get the other 6 guys on my list then you are going to have a really awesome team with a ton of young talent. Someone with 5* talent will be out there and with Jereme Richmond et al. working on him for 3 years, he will see the light. Here is where you put someone who is one-and-done and you win it all.

The only concern I'd have is that there is no clear backup PG for 2009-2010. I think Shumpert could pull it off though if we get him. Also, it may not be necessary to get Prosser/Griffey in '09 if we get Dunigan in '08, or vice versa. Alternatively, if you can get a stud PG in '09 maybe you don't end up banking a ride in '10. Maybe another ride opens up from a transfer or early draft entry.

**I may revise this after I get some feedback.

Re-Seeding the NCAA Tournament

Once the Final Four is set, it is possible to re-seed the field based on the results to yield the seeds that would have produced no upsets. Here is the re-seeded field:

MIDWEST

1. Florida
2. Oregon
3. UNLV
4. Butler
5. Maryland
6. Wisconsin
7. Winthrop
8. Purdue
9. Arizona
10. Notre Dame
11. Texas A&M CC
12. Davidson
13. Old Dominion
14. Georgia Tech
15. Miami (OH)
16. Jackson State

WEST

1. UCLA
2. Kansas
3. Southern Illinois
4. Pittsburgh
5. VCU
6. Virginia Tech
7. Kentucky
8. Indiana
9. Gonzaga
10. Villanova
11. Illinois
12. Duke
13. Wright State
14. Holy Cross
15. Niagara
16. Weber State

EAST

1. Georgetown
2. North Carolina
3. USC
4. Vanderbilt
5. Washington State
6. Texas
7. Michigan State
8. Boston College
9. Texas Tech
10. Marquette
11. New Mexico State
12. Oral Roberts
13. George Washington
14. Arkansas
15. Eastern Kentucky
16. Belmont

SOUTH

1. Ohio State
2. Memphis
3. Texas A&M
4. Tennessee
5. Virginia
6. Louisville
7. Nevada
8. Xavier
9. BYU
10. Creighton
11. Stanford
12. Albany
13. Long Beach State
14. Pennsylvania
15. North Texas
16. Central Conn.

Excited About Next Year

That loss to VT was so horrible that I will try to never speak of it again.

I'm excited about next year. We add a lot of players that we didn't have at the end of this season. Carlwell and Semrau are both recovering from potentially life-threatening conditions, so we might get to see our nice '06 recruits next year. I think Jamar Smith could be back, which along with a healthy Chester Frazier would do a lot to improve the contributions of our '05 class. I'm going to be a jerk and write off CJ Jackson and assume he won't be back next year. Our '05 and '06 classes didn't score a point for us last game, yet we still went 23-12 on the year.
Thankfully, recruiting has improved and the '07 class is promising. Lots of new guys like Demetri McCamey, Quinton Watkins, Bill Cole, and Mike Tisdale. Weber is out looking for someone else too and that should only help. '08 recruiting looks ok and that should give people a boost if we land guys like Iman Shumpert (how can a guy with that name go somewhere else?). We'll get DJ Richardson in '09 and a ton of studs in '10 so that should reassure the skeptics.
I think we will see a better transition game, faster pace of play, improved free throw shooting, consistent defense, and a ton more depth (I forgot to mention Jeremiah Wise and Steve Holdren, who are probably on par with Meacham). I'm also betting that we'll have better health and fewer off-court problems.
Our schedule will be tougher but this will be a punchy team with the guts to finish games. Expect signature wins and another NCAA appearance. RPI and SOS will be our friends, as the Big Ten will dominate next season with a ton of stud recruits. There will be some great battles in Champaign and on the road from Hawaii to Penn State.

Who Can Win It All?

It's time to break down the field. I don't know how to pick a decent bracket. I do know a little bit about determining possible champions. Of the 65 teams, only 13 (20% of the field) have any real chance to win it all.

Florida
Maryland
Oregon
Wisconsin
Kansas
UCLA
North Carolina
Texas
Washington State
Georgetown
Ohio State
Texas A&M
Memphis

There are a few rules to this. You pretty much need to have Final Four experience to win it all. That rules out Oregon, Wisconsin, Kansas, Washington State, Georgetown, Ohio State, and Texas A&M. That leaves us with six teams.

Florida
Maryland
UCLA
North Carolina
Texas
Memphis

Memphis isn't from a decent conference, so it is out. UCLA and Maryland lost in the first rounds of their conference tournaments, so they are out. The only other factors are abundant NBA talent and elite players, which both abound on the three remaining teams. So there you have it.

The 2007 national champion will be Florida, North Carolina, or Texas.*

*The NBA early entry rule might mess things up, so you can consider Ohio State as a dark horse candidate because of Greg Oden.

NCAA Quest - Prediction

We're IN. The win over Indiana sealed the deal. 11 seed.

3/6 NCAA Quest - Who to Root For/Against

Let's say Illinois beats Penn State on Thursday and loses to Indiana Friday night. That pretty much leaves us squarely on the bubble, dependent on other results. Let's see what we want to happen (if the "losers" do win, we want them to lose ASAP):

Georgia Tech loses to Wake Forest (Thursday)
Florida State/Clemson loses to UNC (Friday) [FSU/Clemson is too tough to call]
Syracuse loses to UConn (Wednesday)
West VA loses to Providence (Wednesday)
DePaul loses to Villanova (Wednesday)
Michigan loses to Minnesota (Thursday)
Michigan State loses to NW (Thursday)
Purdue loses to Iowa (Friday)
Kansas State loses to Texas Tech/Colorado (Friday)
[Texas Tech losing Thursday to Colorado is secondary but helpful]
Stanford loses to USC (Wednesday)
No deep SEC runs for Alabama, Georgia, Arkansas, Miss., Miss. State
Air Force loses to Wyoming (MWC)
UMass doesn't reach the A10 Final

UNLV or BYU wins the MWC tournament
Memphis wins the C-USA tournament
Xavier wins the A10 Tournament
Butler wins the Horizon Tournament
Nevada wins the WAC Tournament

3/5 NCAA Quest Update

Disappointing loss @Iowa. I thought we would win and I really don't know what happened there. Horrible TV coverage (even via pay-per-view online) so I was lucky to even be able to follow the game. Fortunately we are done with Big Ten road games this year.
Where do we stand with regards to the NCAA Tournament? We are 21-10 (9-7) and our RPI is 35. I think if the season ended today that we would be just about the last team in. However, we still have the Big Ten Tournament to sort things out. What do we need to do in Chicago? Let's look at the Friday matchups:

Ohio State vs. Michigan/Minnesota
Wisconsin vs. Michigan State/Northwestern
Indiana vs. Illinois/Penn State
Iowa vs. Purdue

If we lose to Penn State then we are out. That would just be unforgivable at this point. If we beat Penn State but lose to Indiana then it depends on other teams. If we beat both Penn State and Indiana then we are in. There is no way they can leave us out if we have 23 wins.

Here are my predictions for the Big Ten Tournament.
1. Michigan over Minnesota
2. Michigan State over Northwestern
3. Illinois over Penn State
4. Ohio State over Michigan
5. Iowa over Purdue
6. Michigan State over Wisconsin
7. Illinois over Indiana
8. Ohio State over Iowa
9. Michigan State over Illinois
10. Michigan State over Ohio State

Big Ten NCAA teams are Ohio State (1), Wisconsin (2), Michigan State (5), Indiana (9), Illinois (11).

The Curse of Penn State

2.2 seconds left...Illinois trails by 1 after blowing a double-digit second half lead. McBride inbounds to Dee, who is blanketed by two Penn State defenders and after some dribbles fires a pass to Rich McBride, who drills the 3-pointer as the buzzer sounds. The scoreboard shows a final of 68-66 and some of the Orange Krush storm the court in relief.
That's how I remember it. I was there. Illinois had never lost during my life for the 20+ games when I was in attendance, even after OT games at Purdue and vs. Iowa, along with two Big Ten Tournaments and a couple NCAA games in Indy. We had a 33-game home winning streak and were 20-2 in the sequel to the 37-2 campaign. For a moment that all seemed intact and McBride's 20 points would carry us to victory and signal a breakout performance for the next great Illini guard.
Before I could celebrate, I quickly realized that the shot would be reviewed since it came at the buzzer. Perhaps Bruce Weber could have lobbied for more time before the inbounds play (it works for Duke!) but the refs made the right call and waved off the basket. King Rich was stripped of his crown and our streak was snapped. The fabric of the space-time continuum had been torn and the bizarre implications are still being felt in Champaign and beyond.
66-65, Penn State. Matt Sylvester's miracle shot gave Ohio State a 65-64 win over the unbeaten Illini and made a king out of Thad Matta, who has since enjoyed an unparalleled recruiting bonanza and has dominated the Big Ten. However, this game's implications were even greater. Illinois finished at 11-5 in the Big Ten. That win would have given Illinois a 12-4 finish, a share of the Big Ten Championship, and the 2 seed in the Big Ten Tournament. That 2 seed then went on to win the BTT while 3 seed Illinois had to play MSU twice in a row and lost the rubber match. Illinois could have had the 2-seed which the devilish Bruce Pearl received undeservedly in the NCAA Tournament but instead was stuck with a lousy 4-seed. Instead of a second-round loss to Washington, Illinois would have easily handled Wichita State (they beat them once already that season and improved since then) and could have snuffed George Mason's legendary Cinderella run to the Final Four.
Imagine the difference such a run would have made for Bruce Weber. Instead of a dull 26-7 record, he could have acheieved a sterling 32-5 mark, Big Ten Championship, Big Ten Tournament Championship, and Elite Eight appearance. The recruiting implications would have been substantial, likely impressing Evan Turner enough to hold off Thad Matta's high-pressure sales job. Eric Gordon could not have spurned a Turner/McCamey/Cole/Tisdale supporting cast for the ethically challenged crew at Indiana. Perhaps Scottie Reynolds sees a dynasty at Illinois as more impressive than a second-rate option at Villanova and signs on with Weber after his release from Oklahoma. Reynolds scores 20+ in home games against Maryland, Ohio State, and Wisconsin along with Illini hero Rich McBride, who is too concerned about his dark horse NBA hopes to ever risk getting a DUI. Jamar Smith isn't on the floor to get hurt against Austin Peay, and by Big Ten season he evolves into the third guard of a new three-headed monster that remains undefeated at home and contends for a fourth consecutive Big Ten Championship. After a sweep of Indiana and Reynolds' impressive freshman campaign, Kelvin Sampson at Indiana is widely considered to be the best thing to happen to Illinois since Bill Self left for Kansas. There is no Jamar Smith scandal because he's not out partying with the Big Ten Championship on the line.
Oh, what could have been...

The good news is that with last Saturday's win over Penn State, the curse is now reversed. Penn State already beat Iowa at home, crushing their NCAA hopes and making them easy prey in our quest to lock up an NCAA bid. Penn State will also knock off hated Indiana at home on Saturday, knocking them into the 4 seed where they will lose in Chicago to 5 seed Purdue and shockingly fail to reach the NCAA Tournament. Illinois will go on a remarkable run, defeating Iowa, Michigan State, and Purdue to win the Big Ten Tournament and be poised to capture a favorable seed in the NCAA Tournament with a 25-9 record on Selection Sunday. (Ohio State, Wisconsin, Illinois, Purdue, and Michigan State would be the 5 teams with NCAA bids out of the Big Ten.)
Oh, the possibilities...

Illini Basketball Next Year - What We Know

Since it's the middle of the week and I'm bored, now seems like a good time to think about how the Illini will do next year. The only problem with that is that we don't even know how they are going to do this year (no idea if they will win or lose their next game or where they will be seeded from 3-7 in the BTT). When you add in the possibility that our 2007 recruiting class is incomplete and the Jamar situation, there is no hope of knowing how next season will go. However, there are some things that we do know and that can help us get started.

Rich McBride, Warren Carter, and Marcus Arnold are all graduating. We lose 2 starters and a significant role player in our rotation. Together they average 25.6 ppg (of our 65.8) and 70.5 mpg (of 200). McBride is a 2-year starter and Carter is a 1-year starter. In terms of efficiency, McBride has a .351 FG%, .353 3PT%, .724 FT%, 2.1 rebounds/game and 54/37 A/TO. Carter has a .488 FG%, .368 FT%, .717 FT%, 6.3 rebounds/game, 58/71 A/TO. Carter and McBride combined for 531 of 1596 FG attempts. So that's what we're losing.

What about the other 3 starters and their efficiency?

Frazier .365 FG%, .325 3PT%, .606 FT%, 4.7 rebounds/game and 128/75 A/TO
Randle .544 FG%, .385 3PT%, .595 FT%, 4.4 rebounds/game and 23/33 A/TO
Pruitt .545 FG%, no 3PT%, .516 FT%, 7.4 rebounds/game and 7/57 A/TO

It's reasonable to expect returning starters to get more shots. We will likely see an Illini team that is excellent at rebounding and efficient shooting, but BRUTAL at the FT line and not a very good passing team.

Defensively, we should be excellent next season. All three returning starters are great defenders and Carter is the only weak link on defense this year (although he is improving).

Offensively we have some serious issues. We might not have any great pure shooters or pure scorers. This is a huge problem. If Jamar is not back, we will need big contributions from Q and Semrau. Both of them seem to have plenty of potential but you never know with freshmen (or even redshirt freshmen).

It's hard to say much more once you realize that it all comes down to finding new ways to put the ball in the hoop. We need to have 3 legitimate threats behind the line and one post scorer for Weber's offense to succeed.

Here are the questions for next year

-Will Jamar be back, and if so can he return to his scorer's form?
-Who starts at PF? Can he score?
-How much can our freshmen guards contribute?
-Will either Brock or a new recruit emerge as a wing scorer coming off the bench?
-Will injuries or off-court incidents disrupt the season again?
-Will this team be ready to handle a difficult non-conference schedule?
-Who will provide the necessary leadership to overcome adversity and win on the road in the Big Ten?

In summary, I don't know if Illini games next year will be good or bad, but I do know that they will once again be ugly.

2/26 NCAA Quest Update

Huge win @PSU today. It was expected, but it's nice to see the team playing its best ball heading into March. 21 wins is huge and 9-6 in the Big Ten feels awfully good. Our RPI has climbed to 30 which is off the bubble, so I'd say we're in for sure if the season ended today. Our Pomeroy rating is up to #22 so I'd say we should see some votes in Monday's polls (we even deserved to be ranked at this point). Here is an updated look at the pack in the Big Ten and what record they are on pace for.

3. Illinois 9-6 (10-6)
4. MSU 8-6 (9-7)
4. Indiana 8-6 (10-6)
4. Iowa 8-6 (9-7)
7. Purdue 7-7 (9-7)
7. Michigan 7-7 (8-8)

For the BTT, let's assume Ohio State gets the 1 seed and Wisconsin gets the 2 seed. If these predictions hold up, Indiana gets the 3 seed, Illinois gets the 4 seed, Iowa gets the 5 seed, Purdue gets the 6 seed, MSU gets the 7 seed, Michigan gets the 8 seed, then Minnesota, NW, and PSU. The BTT matchups are then:

Ohio State vs. Michigan/Minnesota
Wisconsin vs. MSU/NW
Indiana vs. Purdue/PSU
Illinois vs. Iowa

That might give us a Big Ten Tournament with no upsets. There's a slight chance we're already in the NCAAs, but I believe we need to win one of our next two games to get in. In my opinion, only the refs can beat us at Iowa. Right now we're on pace for a 23-10 record heading into the NCAA Tournament. That might get us a 7 seed.

Jamar on the Bench?

Since the accident a week ago Monday and the ensuing events and reports, I've been all over the place with reactions to the fate of Jamar Smith. At times I've lashed out at Weber for the perception that he's coddling a team full of criminals. Other times I wonder where the players would be without someone who loves them like a father and refuses to give up on them. I almost wrote a blog entitled "Jamar Must Go" a couple days ago upon hearing about his apparent refusal of help for Brian. I've questioned whether Jamar was ever a "good kid" and doubted my support of college athletics and the surrounding culture it creates. I've empathized with Jamar, remembering times in my life where I've been filled with regret from mistakes I've made irresponsibly yet unintentionally that I wished I could simply undo. Plus there is the factor that I'm an Illini fan and I want us to win games. I have never wavered in my absolute disgust at drunk driving and its prevalence in our country.

Still, I found myself watching the Illinois/Michigan game in the wake of these seesawing opinions and emotions. In the wake of the latest developments, I posted the following in response to watching the game and reading the subsequent Tupper blog.

It was disconcerting to see Smith on the bench having a good time after the recent events for which he was directly responsible. However, it does hint that there may be more to the story than we're hearing from the prosecution in this case.

"The team was adamant that Jamar should be with the team and on the bench. The most outspoken of all was Carlwell and his opinion held extra weight, since the public perception is that Jamar Smith left him for dead in the car that snowy night. I can tell you everyone associated with the program strongly disputes that notion and Smith’s attorney, Mark Lipton, will no doubt be arguing that in court."

It seems to me that those associated with the team are the ones who would know the most about the events of that fateful night. For all this "left for dead" talk, we've never heard Jamar or Brian's side of the story. Surely any responsible decision-maker would take that into account. I think the sight of Brian and Jamar arm-in-arm is a powerful statement from those two individuals.
We condemn Jamar (and I'm not saying he's innocent or should go unpunished) for presumably looking out for his own reputation and self-interest when his teammate was clearly suffering and in urgent need of help. Jamar is suffering now and needs help. If we abandon him to protect our own reputation and self-interest, are we really any better?
Justice will be served and I doubt this is some grand cover-up. Perhaps it is really that Coach Weber understands that two wrongs don't make a right. It's that understanding that allowed Luther Head and Richard McBride to redeem themselves and we are all better for it.

2/22 NCAA Quest Update

Blogger is unblocked at work, so I'm back early! We just got a critical win against Michigan and suddenly the landscape looks a lot brighter for us. 20 wins is a big milestone and 8-6 in the Big Ten feels awfully good. Our RPI has soared to 32 which is off the bubble, so I'd say we're in for sure if the season ended today. Our Pomeroy rating is up to #25 so I'd say we should see some votes in the polls if we stay on track. Here is an updated look at the pack in the Big Ten and what record they are on pace for.

3. Indiana 8-5 (10-6)
4. Illinois 8-6 (9-7)
5. Iowa 8-6 (9-7)
6. MSU 7-6 (9-7)
7. Purdue 6-7 (9-7)
8. Michigan 6-7 (7-9)

Wow! What a logjam at 9-7. That's right on the bubble. As far as NCAAs go, 9-7 would put MSU in, Iowa out, and Purdue and Illinois waiting to see how they do in the BTT. How would the seeding work if Iowa loses @PSU and beats Illinois?

IL = 2-3 vs 9-7 teams, 0-1 vs OSU, 0-1 vs Wisc
IA = 3-2 vs 9-7 teams, 0-1 vs OSU, 0-2 vs Wisc
PU = 2-1 vs 9-7 teams, 0-2 vs OSU, 0-1 vs Wisc
MS = 2-3 vs 9-7 teams, 0-2 vs OSU, 1-1 vs Wisc?

so Purdue gets the 4 seed with a 2-1 group record, Iowa is the 5 seed with the 3-2 record, IL is the 6 seed with the 0-1 record against OSU, and MSU is the 7 seed.

The tiebreakers can be found at this site.

All that aside, the most important thing is to get some revenge against Penn State this weekend. I'm planning another entry tomorrow to discuss our last game against Penn State and the ensuing consequences.

2/19 NCAA Quest Update

Sorry for the late post. Turns out Blogger is blocked at work now so I have to do this on my own time now. We had to get that win against Northwestern. I'm changing the format of this to focus on the Big Ten standings and our status on the bubble since the schedule breakdown is trivial at this point. It's nice to be up to 19 wins and back over .500 in the Big Ten. Our RPI is 44 according to Pomeroy but the NCAA has reclassified some of our games so officially we're at 40. Any better than that and we're off the bubble IMO. Here is an updated look at the pack in the Big Ten and what record they are on pace for.

3. Indiana 7-5 (10-6)
4. Illinois 7-6 (9-7)
5. Iowa 7-6 (8-8)
6. MSU 6-6 (8-8)
7. Purdue 6-6 (9-7)
8. Michigan 6-6 (8-8)

I'm not sure if the matchups will allow that exact result but it's a nice look at the pace. We're on pace for the #5 seed in the Big Ten tournament and a 4/5 matchup against Purdue (essentially a play-in game for the NCAA Tournament). BTW, MSU could slip into the tournament with an 8-8 Big Ten record and an easy victory over the 11 seed and a strong performance in the quarterfinal game against Indiana.

After all this talk, it's likely as simple as winning 3 of our next 4 and we're in. Let's start by exacting some revenge vs. Michigan on our home floor on Senior Night.

Fame and Tragedy

Sometimes I get so caught up in the drama and passion of being a college basketball fan and I forget that we're often talking about teenagers. By now, anyone reading this blog will surely know of the accident last night involving Jamar Smith and Brian Carlwell. If you don't know the details, I refer you to this brilliant piece of journalism by the Chicago Tribune. I think the opening quote captures the feelings of most Illini fans this morning. Seeing my quote in a serious publication gave me a sudden glimpse of what it must feel like to have your life available for public scrutiny. I could have easily let my emotions get the better of me and written something hurtful and stupid and then ended up regretting it later. I generally act cautiously because it is easy to make mistakes in life and often impossible to undo them.

Right now Jamar and Brian appear to be guilty only of some questionable driving and a lot of bad luck. I live in Maryland (which is currently being coated in ice) and might have been a victim of a similar tragedy today on my way home from work. Often the only silver lining to a tragedy involving a famous athlete is that it forces the rest of us to re-evaluate our lives. Do I take the proper caution when driving in inclement weather? Do I know what to do if I am in an accident and I need emergency help? Am I avoiding situations where I will be in the wrong place at the wrong time? If I'm going to drink, will I be sure not to get behind the wheel?

The good news is that everything that I've heard suggests that Brian is recovering quickly and will be ok. I can't imagine that he'll play again this season, but his future as an Illini basketball player and dreams of playing in the NBA may still be intact. I will continue to pray for him and that there is no more bad news coming out of this story.

2/11 NCAA Quest Update

Tough loss to Indiana, as a victory there would have likely sewn up an NCAA berth, for all practical purposes. Still, it was encouraging to see the effort and improved play from the Illini. Our RPI actually improved to 41, so we're nearly off the bubble (RPI 40-50). 6-4 in the last 10 and 6-6 road/neutral. I feel comfortable asserting that Illinois will beat any team with a >125 RPI on the road and a >50 RPI at AH. I'm also sad to say that I expect Illinois to lose to any team with a <20 RPI at AH and a <50 RPI (up from <70 after a strong performance at Indiana) on the road. That gives us 3 automatic wins (NW (147), Michigan (58), @PSU (206)) in the remaining schedule and puts us at 9-6 in the Big Ten. That leaves 1 "swing" game:

3/3 @Iowa (80)

Another factor that is important is where we finish in the Big Ten. I think a top 5 finish is essential for comparisons to other teams and for our BTT seeding. Right now we have the following pack in the Big Ten (including predicted finish).

3. Indiana 7-3 (12-4)
4. Iowa 6-5 (9-7)
5. Illinois 6-6 (9-7)
6. Michigan 5-5 (7-9)
7. Purdue 5-6 (9-7)
8. Michigan State 4-6 (7-9)

If everything finishes as predicted we will be in a tie for the 4-6 spots with Iowa and Purdue. I still think we can beat Iowa and finish at 10-6, which would put us in the NCAAs.

2/8 NCAA Quest Update

Nice road win over Northwestern to move to 6-5 in the Big Ten. The win total is up to 18 and that's starting to look good. I'd say we're at the point now where we have a >50% chance of making the NCAAs, but there are a lot of bubble teams fighting for a few spots so we have to keep this going. Our RPI is steady at 44, so I guess we're still right in the middle of the bubble (RPI 40-50). 6-4 in the last 10 and 6-5 road/neutral. I feel comfortable asserting that Illinois will beat any team with a >125 RPI on the road and a >50 RPI at AH. I'm also sad to say that I expect Illinois to lose to any team with a <20 RPI at AH and a <70 RPI (up from <75 after NW) on the road. That gives us 3 automatic wins (NW (153), Michigan (54), @PSU (195)) and 1 automatic loss (@Indiana (17)) in the remaining schedule and puts us at 9-6 in the Big Ten. That leaves 1 "swing" game:

3/3 @Iowa (83)

Another factor that is important is where we finish in the Big Ten. I think a top 5 finish is essential for comparisons to other teams and for our BTT seeding. Right now we have the following pack in the Big Ten (including predicted finish).

3. Indiana 6-3 (11-5)
4. Iowa 6-4 (9-7)
5. Illinois 6-5 (9-7)
6. Purdue 5-5 (9-7)
7. Michigan 4-5 (7-9)
8. Michigan State 4-6 (7-9)

If everything finishes as predicted we will be in a tie for the 4-6 spots with Iowa and Purdue. I'm not sure how the tiebreakers work but I will find out soon. The more important thing is that we are playing with house money against Indiana and if we somehow steal a win there we would be on track for 10-6 and 3rd place, knocking them down to 4th place. We're sure to get hosed by the refs so it will be ugly. However, this Illini team is improving and Indiana isn't. You never know.

2/4 NCAA Quest Update

Ugly win over Minnesota Saturday but it counts the same in the standings. It's good to have won over 2/3 of our games and be back to .500 in the Big Ten. I'd say we're at the point now where we have a >50% chance of making the NCAAs. Our RPI actually dropped to 44, so I guess we're still right in the middle of the bubble (RPI 40-50). I feel comfortable asserting that Illinois will beat any team with a >125 RPI on the road and a >50 RPI at AH. I'm also sad to say that I expect Illinois to lose to any team with a <20 RPI at AH and a <75 RPI on the road. That gives us 4 automatic wins (@NW (145), NW (145), Michigan (56), @PSU (200)) and 1 automatic loss (@Indiana (18)) in the remaining schedule and puts us at 9-6 in the Big Ten. That leaves 1 "swing" game:

3/3 @Iowa (85)

What we've seen is that Michigan is getting a lot worse while Iowa seems to be improving rapidly. The game at Iowa is looking a lot tougher than I originally expected. I feel better about our chances at getting in with a 9-7 record and a win in the Big Ten Tournament. In future editions of NCAA Quest I will start to take a closer look at how the Big Ten is shaking out and what we'll be up against in the Big Ten Tournament.
I'd also like to announce that I purchased a plane ticket to Chicago for 3/9-3/12 so I am planning on attending the BTT. I don't have tickets left so if there are Illini fans out there with extras, please let me know.

1/31 NCAA Quest Update

Huge win over MSU yesterday, as that was one of the swing games. Now that we have a few quality wins people might believe that we're an NCAA Tournament team. Our RPI improved to 42, closer to being off the bubble (RPI 40-50). I feel comfortable asserting that Illinois will beat any team with a >125 RPI on the road and a >50 RPI at AH. I'm also sad to say that I expect Illinois to lose to any team with a <20 RPI at AH and a <75 RPI on the road. That gives us 4 automatic wins (Minnesota (177), @NW (128), NW (128), @PSU (184)) and 1 automatic loss (@Indiana (19)) in the remaining schedule and puts us at 8-6 in the Big Ten. That leaves 2 "swing" games:

2/21 Michigan (45)
3/3 @Iowa (115)

I think we are looking at 9-7 or 10-6 in the Big Ten and we'll be on the good side of the bubble with a chance to ice things in the Big Ten Tournament. Now is the time to get on a roll with Minnesota coming to town. We have to be consistent and win the games we're supposed to win.

1/28 NCAA Quest Update

We lost to Purdue. The way we lost was upsetting but it doesn't hurt us much in the big picture as long as we can deliver in the "win" and "swing" games. Our RPI again is 46, leaving us on the bubble (RPI 40-50). I feel comfortable asserting that Illinois will beat any team with a >125 RPI on the road and a >50 RPI at AH. I'm also sad to say that I expect Illinois to lose to any team with a <20 RPI at AH and a <75 RPI (downgraded after the ugly Purdue road loss) on the road. That gives us 4 automatic wins (Minnesota (174), @NW (133), NW (133), @PSU (183)) and 1 automatic loss (@Indiana (21)) in the remaining schedule and puts us at 7-6 in the Big Ten. That leaves 3 "swing" games:

1/30 MSU (RPI 28)
2/21 Michigan (44)
3/3 @Iowa (112)

I think we are looking at 9-7 or 10-6 in the Big Ten and we'll be on the good side of the bubble with a chance to ice things in the Big Ten Tournament. We need to get healthy and generate some scoring if we want to roll off a string of wins. This is a scary time as the schedule is easier but we can't afford any slip-ups.

1/24 NCAA Quest Update

We got a big (and unexpected, given our past performances) win against Indiana last night that gives our NCAA Quest a big boost. Our RPI has risen to 46, leaving us on the bubble (RPI 40-50). I feel comfortable asserting that Illinois will beat any team with a >125 RPI on the road and a >50 RPI at AH. I'm also sad to say that I expect Illinois to lose to any team with a <20 RPI at AH (revised from <25 after last night's performance) and a <50 RPI on the road. That gives us 3 automatic wins (Minnesota (184), NW (125), @PSU (159)) and 2 automatic losses (@Purdue (48), @Indiana (22)) in the remaining schedule and puts us at 6-6 in the Big Ten. That leaves 4 "swing" games:

1/30 MSU (RPI 27)
2/7 @NW (125)
2/21 Michigan (39)
3/3 @Iowa (114)

I think we are looking at 9-7 or 10-6 in the Big Ten and we'll be on the good side of the bubble with a chance to ice things in the Big Ten Tournament. If this team keeps improving and can somehow steal an unlikely win @Purdue then we will really be in business.

Apology to Bruce Weber

I think a lot of people have been unfairly venting their frustration with recent events at Bruce Weber. We all want to win every game and land all the best recruits, none more than Weber himself.

Undoubtedly, our program has faced a lot of adversity, especially in the last 4 months. Every starter has been injured and/or missed time this season (just consider the number of different starting lineups we've needed). We've been victimized by an unprecedented welching of a verbal commitment from a top recruit to a conference rival. Top talent from Illinois goes elsewhere amid public accusations of cheating (unproven, yes) that meshes with every bit of smoke from the sport's corrupt underbelly.

Exacerbating the situation are the actions of our former coach who goes out of his way to contact our recruits and to negatively recruit against us. Furthermore, it is clear that from the very beginning there have been cronies of the former coach who do nothing but promote an anti-Weber agenda. [It's not "realism" or "venting." These people have obvious harmful agendas.]

How does Weber respond to adversity? He works even harder, makes adjustments, yet stays true to his core values. Weber is universally acknowledged as one of the hardest-working recruiters in all of the country (this is much different from the Ron Turner scenario). We've seen a new recruiting approach that has succeeded in raising the level of our recruiting success (see the last 3 verbal commitments). We've seen zone defense from someone who was 100% man-to-man for decades. We've seen honesty and integrity in recruiting without even a hint of trouble from the NCAA.

Weber is universally lauded as a great coach and teacher by college basketball experts. When the time came to cash in on the greatest success in the program's history, he didn't shop himself to "elite" programs to try and cash out. He reinvested some of the money that could have lined his pockets back into the program to improve our facilities and assistant coach salaries. He has remained loyal and rebuilt the notion of the Illini family.

How have we treated this man? He's being condemned based on fantasies. Fantasies. People have dreams of "eliteness," national championships, and recruiting successes that have no basis in historical reality. We nearly did the unthinkable in 2004-2005 under Weber and now he has become a victim of his own success. Bitterness from the departure of our previous coach and fear from the collapse of our football program (along with some bizarre local sports psychology) have warped our perceptions of Bruce Weber.

We are staring at the ugly prospect of a home loss to our most hated rival and a strong chance of missing the NCAA Tournament. Nobody is "merry" about this. We're pissed off. We're also staring at the even uglier prospect of running a coach out of town (by April 2008) who has done nothing to deserve such a fate. Our insane fanbase has never been fair to Bruce Weber and it reflects very poorly on us. I've met Bruce Weber and he is a good man and a great coach who does not deserve the heat he is getting from his "fans." I'm an irrationally obsessed Illini fan I consider myself part of the problem. That's why I apologize to Bruce Weber.

Good luck to Bruce and the Illini tonight against the Hoosiers.

1/22 NCAA Quest Update

We lost to Wisconsin on Saturday (as expected, although we put up a fight). Our RPI has dropped to 48, leaving us on the bubble (RPI 40-50). I feel comfortable asserting that Illinois will beat any team with a >125 RPI on the road (changed from >150 after further review) and a >50 RPI at AH. I'm also sad to say that I expect Illinois to lose to any team with a <25 RPI at AH and a <50 RPI on the road. That gives us 4 automatic wins (Minnesota (187), @Northwestern (126), Northwestern (126), @PSU (158)) and 3 automatic losses (Indiana (16), @Purdue (46), @Indiana (16)) in the remaining schedule and puts us at 6-7 in the Big Ten. That leaves 3 "swing" games:

1/30 MSU (RPI 27)
2/21 Michigan (38)
3/3 @Iowa (114)

Frankly, I am sick of all the losing and we need to beat Indiana on Tuesday regardless of their RPI. This team has been too predictable and it's time to break the mold. Otherwise we are 9-7 at best with the NIT looming.

Blisterfoot - Oh! Injury

There's a fracture in a left hand,
Time for practice we're undermanned,
From the blistered foot to the groin strain.
Have some surgery and a lot of pain.

In the Freak's groin, there's some stiff scar,
Richard Semrau, an infected core,
Lose three games what's the headline,
Keep recruiting 'til the letter's signed.

Oh! Injury,
Why can't we seem to keep it together?
Sampson's the enemy,
Why can't we seem to keep it together?

In the backcourt of the Illini,
There's a thin man with ankles fried,
Air the threeball till his head's right,
Keep him slumping 'til the next night.

Oh! Injury,
Why can't we seem to keep it together?
Sampson's the enemy,
Why can't we seem to keep it together?

Why this tragedy?
Why can't we seem to keep it together?
Oh! Injury,
Why can't we seem to keep it together?

In the fallout, the fallout,
We found out - the hype won't get you through.
We're defective, defective...
I meant it - the hype won't get you through.
(Through!)

Oh! Injury,
Why can't we seem to keep it together?
Oh! Injury,
Why can't we seem to keep it together?

Why this tragedy?
Why can't we seem to keep it together?
Oh! Injury,
Why can't we seem to keep it together, now?

Let's put it together.

1/18 NCAA Quest Update

So, Illinois took care of Minnesota on the road, as expected. According to Ken Pomeroy, Illinois has an RPI of 41. I think we'll get in if (but not only if) our RPI is 40 or better, so we're a bubble team right now. I feel comfortable asserting that Illinois will beat any team with a >125 RPI on the road (changed from >150 after further review) and a >50 RPI at AH. I'm also sad to say that I expect Illinois to lose to any team with a <25 RPI at AH and a <50 RPI on the road. That gives us 5 automatic wins (Minnesota (173), @Northwestern (152), Northwestern (152), Michigan (52), @PSU (157)) and 4 automatic losses (Wisc (6), Indiana (21), @Purdue (42), @Indiana (21)) in the remaining schedule and puts us at 7-7 in the Big Ten. That leaves 2 "swing" games:

1/30 MSU (RPI 25)
3/3 @Iowa (115)

Right now we look and feel like a bubble team, which is what the numbers suggest. 9-7 may get us in with a BTT win but our next 2 games at home are great chances to play our best game of the year and steal a big win. That would be huge.

Illinois/Minnesota In-game Observations

1st half, 20:00-16:00

-nice to see initial emphasis on the inside game
-we should be able to work the offensive glass all night
-Illinois -6.5 looking like a steal
-expecting a lot of zone from Minnesota to force long shots
-no need to double team tonight
-Pruitt better not be hurt
-Arnold should be fine tonight
-it's fun to go up 13-0

1st half, 16:00-12:00

-I don't fear the barn
-darn, they scored
-never saw any of our injured players leading like Tollackson
-bogus OB call against Frazier
-good to see Pruitt back in the game
-why aren't we drawing any fouls on offense?
-we should be pulling away now...I don't like it

1st half, 12:00-8:00

-we have no fast break
-2 fouls on Randle = not good
-where has the scoring gone?
-we are slowly losing our edge
-Pruitt poor passing out of the triple team
-disgusted at how we let them back in this game
-we can't screen to save our lives
-Carlwell has nice hands/intangibles

1st half, 8:00-4:00

-hooray for Tim Brewster
-10-0 run really calms the nerves
-I wonder if one of our assistants will coach at Minnesota next year
-Carter looks really smooth tonight
-McBride really picking his spots well

1st half, 4:00-0:00

-fast break!
-we don't finish halves well
-vicious blocks from Minnesota
-effort was ok there, just got blocked

2nd half, 20:00-16:00

-Pruitt in foul trouble again
-Randle seemed energized by the dunk
-I think we've got this game

2nd half, 16:00-12:00

-it's weird that our team has to think for a half-second before they really exert themselves or rally around teammates
-someone owns us off the dribble every game
-Minnesota is a lousy team and it's nice to have this big lead
-FT shooting tonight is pretty lousy
-Pruitt exceeded his range
-Brock has great instincts around the basket
-glad Frazier didn't go flying off the court there

2nd half, 12:00-8:00

-McBride is hot tonight
-McBride also starting to be more of a vocal leader
-Frazier doesn't have it tonight
-I want more dunks
-Minnesota clawing back into the game
-I feel bad for Arnold, especially with the mask, but he wasn't fouled there

2nd half, 8:00-4:00

-wrong Erin on the sidelines tonight
-Randle set a nice screen on Meacham (doh!)
-we've stalled on offense again
-still nothing from Jamar
-Minnesota is back in this game
-not sure I agree with the call against Meacham
-I do agree with the offensive foul, counting the bucket
-tough call against Randle

2nd half, 4:00-0:00

-Illinois is not getting any easy buckets against the press
-I like seeing McBride take it to the hoop but he's not too good at it yet
-Randle only showed up for about 5 minutes tonight
-Pruitt with a little revenge
-really feels good to get a road win and another Big Ten win
-zzz

Recruit, Recruit, Recruit, Recruit!!!!

After losing 4 of their last 5 games, many Illini fans have resigned themselves to a berth in the NIT and given up on this team. I still have hope for the NCAA Tournament, but I'm not sure I can convince anyone else of that at this juncture. So, how do we fix things in the House of 'Paign? In the words of Ron Zook, "Recruit, Recruit, Recruit, Recruit!!!!"
In this deep thought we flash ahead to the 2010-2011 season. Thankfully, all of the NITwits on our current roster will be long gone then. Well, Richard Semrau will still be here, but we were undefeated this year with him in the lineup so he (like Coach K one year in the '90s) doesn't have this held against him on his permanent record.
Here is the scholarship situation for 2007-2010
2007: 5 (4 taken)
2008: 2 (0 taken)
2009: 3 (0 taken)
2010: 2 (1 taken)
Now we get to the good part, where I fill in the rest of the roster using some wishful thinking and some high-quality insight gained from lurking over at Rivals. (illini32 has all the best info and I encourage everyone to subscribe there and get in the know).
I now present to you the lineup for the 2011 National Champion Fighting Illini

STARTERS:
PG: Demetri McCamey (SR)
SG: DJ Richardson (SO)
SF: Jereme Richmond (FR)
PF: Richard Semrau (RS-SR)
C: Michael Dunigan (JR)

BENCH:
SG: Quinton Watkins (SR)
PF: Bill Cole (RS-JR)
C: Mike Tisdale (RS-JR)
PG: Lewis Jackson (JR)
SF: Leon Powell (SR)
PG: DeAndre McCamey (FR)
SG: Crandall Head (FR)
PF: Jordan Prosser (RS-FR)

1/15 NCAA Quest Update

Well, we lost to MSU, as predicted. It would have been nice to steal a game but it's still most important to win the 3 swing games. Now, according to Ken Pomeroy, Illinois has an RPI of 39 (down ever so slightly from 38). I think we'll get in if (but not only if) our RPI is 40 or better. I feel comfortable asserting that Illinois will beat any team with a >150 RPI on the road and a >50 RPI at AH. I'm also sad to say that I expect Illinois to lose to any team with a <25 RPI at AH and a <50 RPI on the road. That gives us 5 automatic wins (@Minnesota (157), Minnesota (157), @Northwestern (159), Northwestern (159), Michigan (59)) and 4 automatic losses (Wisc (10), Indiana (22) @Purdue (43), @Indiana (22)) in the remaining schedule and puts us at 6-7 in the Big Ten. That leaves 3 "swing" games:

1/24 @PSU (RPI 148)
1/30 MSU (RPI 25)
3/3 @Iowa (RPI 109)

What has happened is that the RPI for other Big Ten teams seems to have improved. This is bad news for us (if you believe my formula, which will be re-evaluated based on shifting RPIs of our past opponents) as our home game against Indiana has shifted to the loss column and our game @PSU can no longer be considered a near-certain victory. This puts us at 9-7 even if we win the 3 "swing" games and even that might not get us into the NCAA Tournament. For the first time this season I must say that our team needs to make a substantial improvement or we are a bubble team at best.

NFL playoff picks

I feel very confident about these two:

Chicago over Seattle 20-17
Baltimore over Indianapolis 31-20

I'm iffy about these two:

New England over San Diego (Chargers would beat any other team) 17-16
New Orleans over Philadelphia (this may be rigged) 35-13

RPI and "Swing Games"

Last night's win over Iowa was the first step towards a 10-6 record in the Big Ten and a nearly certain NCAA berth. Currently (according to Ken Pomeroy) Illinois has an RPI of 38. Right now I feel comfortable asserting that Illinois will beat any team with a >150 RPI on the road and a >50 RPI at AH. I'm also sad to say that I expect Illinois to lose to any team with a <25 RPI at AH and a <50 RPI on the road. That gives us 6 automatic wins (@Minnesota, Minnesota, @Northwestern, Northwestern, Michigan, @Penn State) and 4 automatic losses (@MSU, Wisc, @Purdue, @Indiana) in the remaining schedule and puts us at 7-6 in the Big Ten. That leaves 3 "swing" games:

1/23 Indiana (RPI 27)
1/30 MSU (RPI 30)
3/3 @Iowa (RPI 116)

We need to win them all to assure ourselves of an NCAA berth. That seems like a tall order with the health of this team but I believe they can do it. I'll keep track of our performances and update this analysis as the numbers change. I'm also planning in-depth previews of these swing games as they approach. I'm dubbing this the NCAA Quest and I will track it through the end of the regular season and give a prognosis heading into the Big Ten Tournament.

Illinois/Iowa in-game observations

1st half, 20:00-16:00

Pruitt can shoot?
Randle and McBride with good starts.
Iowa isn't very good.
Foul situation is good so far.
Slow pace helps with our injury situation.
Feeling very good about this game.

1st half, 16:00-12:00

-good start on a new arena with all the bricks
-Marcus Arnold...why?!?
-Randle looks more dangerous today
-great job rebounding
-McBride wants to shoot a 3 every time he touches the ball...if he avoids forcing "heat checks" that will be a good thing tonight

1st half, 12:00-8:00

-I feel like I'm watching the game in slow-mo
-Brock with his signature hustle play
-Iowa can't guard Pruitt, we need to feed him more
-not expecting any contribution from Jamar tonight
-foul situation is strongly in our favor except for Pruitt's 2nd just now
-McBride needs to realize that there are reasons why some of his shots go in and others don't


1st half, 8:00-4:00

-Iowa got the momentum after 2 fouls on Carter/Pruitt
-Need to attack the zone more aggressively to score
-FT shooting isn't helping us
-Randle keeping us afloat during poor 3-pt shooting from Brock/Meacham
-I miss Richard Semrau right now

1st half, 4:00-0:00

-missed dunk by Randle made me want to cry
-made dunk made me cheer
-Weber needs to play guys with 2 fouls before halftime
-I miss Frazier right now
-Carlwell > Arnold
-bad foul by McBride, who needs to do something new on offense
-bad flashbacks involving McBride and video review at AH
-need to put Randle on Haluska
-Randle is our first-half MVP
-sucks to be losing

2nd half, 20:00-16:00

-keep feeding Pruitt...will foul Iowa out
-Pruitt has moves
-Randle dunk (*applause*)
-STOP FOULING HALUSKA ON 3's!

2nd half, 16:00-12:00

-Meacham won't play next year
-I miss Frazier
-our defense has gotten progressively worse as the game has gone on
-this team has some heart, if little else

2nd half, 12:00-8:00

-Jamar's 3-point shot is broken tonight (or we'd be up 15+)
-yay, 50 points!
-momentum back with Illinois
-we can score inside at will...need to make this happen
-we must win this
-Warren can shoot, thankfully
-Randle can play when he tries

2nd half, 8:00-4:00

-this strange feeling...happiness?
-some of these plays Randle has made passing the rock (*applause*)
-alley-oop? transition? (*applause*)
-technical on Jamar is weak
-are we having fun yet?
-Meacham on the bench...nice decision by Weber
-defensive intensity has really cranked up
-this is Illini basketball, finally

2nd half, 4:00-0:00

-not looking forward to playing @Iowa with their FT shooting
-some ugly possessions down the stretch
-really bad stretch after the final TV timeout
-McBride shot = dagger!
-Warren Carter fouled out...not sure what's up with that
-37.1 seconds left...heartattack begins
-34.1 seconds left...heartattack intensifies
-32.0 seconds left...heartattack reaches critical mass
-32.0 seconds left...inhale
-18.3 seconds left...exhale
-*whew*

Resolving the BCS/Championship Dilemma

Here is what I would do:

1. Limit the season to 11 games.
2. 8-team seeded playoff with the first round on 12/26-12/27
3. Replace the four BCS bowls with a college football Final Four, including a consolation game (the 3 vs. 4 game wouldn't mean any less than it does now).
4. Using 4 additional bowls in a playoff will wipe out 8 slots and keep the lame 6-6 teams out of meaningless bowls.

-Boise State was robbed this year because we never got to see how they stacked up against the very best teams. One of the best games in college football history proved utterly meaningless. Notre Dame losing every bowl will have more impact and Domers will suffer more.

-The current BCS system does a great job of picking 8 (10 was too many) teams for high-level matchups. Filling most of the slots with conference champions still keeps that meaningful. A couple wildcard slots give teams like Boise State a chance to prove themselves.

-If your team is really that good, you have a lot of NFL players that shouldn't struggle to play up to 15 games. You don't even extend the college football season beyond where it is now.

-It eliminates the scenario where a team has 51 days between games (what a joke).

-The general public gets to see the championship team play more than one meaningful game, helping them recognize a true champion.

-BCS (Bowl Championship Series) will actually become a series of bowls to determine a champion.

An updated look at the 07-08 lineup

Frazier - 1
McCamey - 1
Meacham - 1/2
Smith - 2
Brock - 2/3
Q - 2/3
Randle - 3/4
Semrau - 4
Cole - 4
Carlwell - 4/5
CJ Jackson - 4/5
Pruitt - 5
Tisdale - 5

-So we have 2.5 PGs, 2.5 SGs, 1.5 SFs, 3.5 PFs, and 3 C's.
-This basically means we have one extra PF and are one SF short, but otherwise have an extremely balanced lineup.
-PF is the one position where we don't return a starter so it will be interesting to see if anyone can rise up from the crowd and claim the starting spot.
-Another possibility is that we recruit another SF (Leon Freeman, JUCO?) and have someone transfer.
-It's also probable that we have one or two redshirts.
-One intriguing option is starting Brock at the 3 and Randle at the 4.
-Our incoming freshmen guards are pretty good and they should both get significant PT.
-Next year's team should be a significant improvement as long as someone steps up to replace the scoring we lose with Warren Carter.

Weber's new approach to recruiting

I think after Sherron Collins chose Kansas, Weber announced that he was going to take a different approach to recruiting. Let me explain what I think his old approach was and why I believe things will improve in the future with a new approach.

Weber used to try and hold out for "elite" talent. In that sense, he was actually in agreement with some of his detractors [those who really wanted a lineup stocked with All-Americans]. Weber desperately wanted players like Julian Wright, Jon Scheyer, Sherron Collins, Derrick Rose, and Eric Gordon. I get very frustrated when people get mad at Weber and act like he is Ron Turner and is trying to win with lesser talent. Weber is not lazy with recruiting. He works very hard and probably goes to bed at night dreaming of "best backcourt ever" lineups too. Weber has never argued that he wants anything but elite talent. Some have tried to defend Weber by saying that he can win with average talent, but his intent was to focus on recruiting the very best players available to the bitter end.

Actually, that has caused the problem. For whatever reason (I won't repeat the speculation), Weber has not been able to land the elite talent. This is pretty typical with Illinois. The problem is that in fighting unwinnable recruiting battles, Weber let the great Plan B talent slip away. There are several top 100 players that we passed on in order to chase recruits that didn't come here. We have struggled because of having to fill our roster with some Plan C guys, transfers, or empty seats on the bench (banked scholarships).

The good news for Illini fans is that Weber seems to be figuring this out. Now, while we don't have Derrick Rose, we still have Demetri McCamey. At one time he was a plan B but now he's looking pretty good, especially since he signed the LOI. Weber also just got a verbal from Quinton Watkins and did not foolishly let 2 scholarships roll over to '08 to try to hit the home run then (it won't happen, but now we will get a single or a double instead of striking out).

For those of you who long for top talent, there is a new hope there as well. Weber is good at identifying top players early on, so now he is offering them earlier and pressing for commitments. While there is some risk involved, getting a commitment from Jereme Richmond was probably our best hope at getting an All-American in our 2010 class. Weber also offered DJ Richardson and that early offer may pay off soon. The obvious upside to this new approach is that if Weber sees that the kid isn't really interested, he can start targeting other players and in the end nobody gets burned.

Weber's recruiting will improve in the future because of this new approach, if nothing else. Bruce Weber is not a salesman on the order or Ron Zook or Thad Matta, but he should be able to get us back on track. I understand that for some Weber is a victim of his own success (and will not be able to meet the heightened expectations after April '05) but I am confident that this program is not headed for its downfall under Weber. I think in the long run that Weber will do very well here, and I am heartened by that.

8 Problems I've Observed in the Weber Era

These aren't about a game or two but are consistent problems that are becoming more and more apparent each year.

1. Failure to land a single All-American caliber recruit in 4 years. Obviously the Eric Gordon mess affects this, but there is a flawed approach in pursuing elite recruits that we can't land that leads to problem 2.

2. Failure to recruit enough players to fill the 13 basketball scholarships, coupled with an overreliance on transfers that are unable to compete in the Big Ten.

3. Inability to stop slashing wing players on other teams or to defend the lane against strong post players. This is probably because of the strict man-to-man defensive approach, which also leads to problem 4.

4. Inability to effectively attack zone defenses, relying excessively on perimeter shooting. This is probably because the players do not practice sufficiently against a zone defense.

5. Insufficient use of dribble penetration from guards, again leading to an overreliance on perimeter shooting. This leaves us vulnerable to cold spells and does not put our opponents into foul trouble. It also leads to problem 6.

6. Poor free-throw shooting. I'm not sure why individual free-throw shooting performances are bad. However, as a team we end up with most of our free throws being shot by poor FT shooters (this year our FT shooting % is determined by Frazier, Carter, and Pruitt).

7. Lack of a traditional post game. We struggle to score inside even against teams where we have a substantial size advantage. This is a big reason why we struggle at times against low-major teams that get demolished by other teams. It also completes the generic formula for beating us where you overplay our guards on the perimeter and play behind our big men in the post.

8. Rich McBride, Warren Carter, and Brian Randle. These guys have been here all four years and maybe they just aren't good basketball players, despite their recruiting rankings and/or athletic ability. Part of it is Weber's fault for not being able to maximize their talents, but you can't blame coaching for everything. Just replacing these players might make us a better team in future.

Blueprint for making the NCAAs

All we have to do is win these games and we are 22-9 (10-6):

vs. Iowa
@Minnesota
vs. Indiana
vs. Michigan State
vs. Minnesota
@Northwestern
vs. Northwestern
vs. Michigan
@Penn State
@Iowa

that would put us at 8-2 in our last 10 Big Ten games, and we'd be a lock for the NCAAs.

If we slip up, we can make up a game by winning one of these games:
@Michigan State
vs. Wisconsin
@Purdue
@Indiana

none of those games are lost causes.I could tell by looking at the schedule that this was going to be a very tough stretch for us and was hoping that we could steal one of the last 3 games. Nevertheless, none of these were really bad losses. Yes, we played poorly in these games but it would be foolish to think that we won't rebound from our slump in play.The worst is over, Illini fans! Time to gear up for a run to the NCAA Tournament and a better team next year.

Welcome to my blog

This blog is originating as an outgrowth of some of my posts as IlliniJoe81 on http://illinois.scout.com

Now the reader will have access to my detailed thoughts on various Illinois sports issues, along with my take on current events, science, and cultural issues without the clutter. Illiniboard users will not have to return to the scout site to find my postings.

I'll admit that this is a hugely egotistic, self-important effort...but that's what makes it fun.