Preseason Rotation Projection

Here's last year's rotation first (total minutes divided by 34.25 games)

Meacham - 30.5 mpg
Davis - 30.5 mpg
McCamey - 30.4 mpg
Frazier - 30.0 mpg
Tisdale - 24.6 mpg
Brock - 17.3 mpg
Keller - 12.5 mpg
Jordan - 8.1 mpg
Legion - 7.1 mpg
Semrau - 5.5 mpg
Cole - 2.2 mpg
Jackson - 0.6 mpg
Chisholm - 0.5 mpg
(Total - 199.8 mpg, not 200 because of rounding)

Assuming Jordan comes back, we are returning 121.4 mpg (roughly 3 out of 5 spots). That leaves 78.6 mpg to divide between 5 new players (Richardson, Paul, Griffey, Bertrand, and Simpson) so the battle for playing time is going to be fierce.

My projection is going to round to the nearest 4 minutes just for simplicity and also so I don't have to worry about garbage time. Here goes:

*McCamey - 28 mpg
*Davis - 28 mpg
*Tisdale - 24 mpg
*Richardson - 24 mpg
*Legion - 24 mpg
Paul - 20 mpg
Keller - 16 mpg
Griffey - 8 mpg
Jordan - 8 mpg
Cole - 8 mpg
Bertrand - 4 mpg
Simpson - 4 mpg
Semrau - 4 mpg

I think Weber mixes things up a little bit early in the season so a lot of the bench guys will get a few minutes to show what they can do. Once it gets closer to Big Ten season, I think we will see Semrau, Simpson, Bertrand, and Cole relegated to garbage time and we will have our 9-man rotation.

In my mind, it's not hard to figure out the five starters. Some may wonder about Legion, but if he proves he can play defense he has the right mix of talent, size, and experience to claim a spot. Once you have the starters, Keller and Paul are the first subs off the bench and they allow you lots of flexibility with the substitution patterns. Jordan is a nice defensive stopper and backup PG. I also think Griffey fills in nicely for the Mikes when we have foul trouble, although his spot could easily be taken by Semrau or Simpson if they show more rebounding ability and toughness in the paint.

I think Weber likes Cole but he dreads the zone defense so much that he'll never be totally comfortable with that wrinkle and it's only Plan B if Legion can't make 3-pointers or one of the freshmen guards hits the wall. Semrau seems to fade to the bench as the year goes on. Stan Simpson intrigues me but I don't think he impresses the coaches enough in practice. I will be looking closely and hoping I'm wrong on that one.

3-Year Recruiting Turnaround Timeline

10/13/06 - Eric Gordon bolts for IU.
http://www.herald-review.com/app/blogs/marktupper/ ?m=20061013

11/23/06 - Jereme Richmond verbals
http://www.herald-review.com/app/blogs/marktupper/ ?p=299

1/8/07 - Quinton Watkins verbals

2/13/07 - Jamar Smith/Brian Carlwell accident
http://www.herald-review.com/app/blogs/marktupper/ ?m=20070213

4/17/07 - Rodney Alexander verbals

4/28/07 - Jeff Jordan verbals (walk-on)
http://www.herald-review.com/app/blogs/marktupper/ ?m=20070428

6/27/07 - Liggins to Kentucky

7/16/07 - Dunigan/Humphrey to Oregon

8/7/07 - Iman Shumpert eliminates Illinois (maybe this happened earlier)

8/14/07 - Mike Davis verbals/signs
http://www.herald-review.com/app/blogs/marktupper/ ?m=20070814

8/15/07 - Scott Suggs to Washington

8/28/07 - Quinton Watkins ruled ineligible
http://www.herald-review.com/app/blogs/marktupper/ ?m=200708

9/5/07 Tracy Webster leaves for Kentucky
http://www.herald-review.com/app/blogs/marktupper/ ?m=20070906

9/7/07 - Darius Miller to Kentucky

9/19/07 - Jerrance Howard hired
http://www.herald-review.com/app/blogs/marktupper/ ?m=20070919

10/11/07 - DJ Richardson, Brandon Paul, and Joseph Bertrand verbal
http://www.herald-review.com/app/blogs/marktupper/ ?m=20071012

10/15/07 - Stan Simpson verbals
http://www.herald-review.com/app/blogs/marktupper/ ?m=20071015

12/21/07 - Alex Legion transfers
http://www.herald-review.com/app/blogs/marktupper/?m=20071222

1/6/08 - Crandall Head verbals
http://www.herald-review.com/app/blogs/marktupper/ ?m=20080106

1/31/08 - Tyler Griffey verbals

2/20/08 - Brian Carlwell leaves
http://www.herald-review.com/app/blogs/marktupper/ ?m=20080220

3/10/08 - Dominique Keller verbals

4/15/08 - Alexander leaves
http://www.herald-review.com/app/blogs/marktupper/ ?m=20080415

7/29/08 - Meyers Leonard verbals

7/31/08 - Jamar Smith dismissed from team

12/18/08 - Tracy Abrams verbals
http://www.herald-review.com/app/blogs/marktupper/ ?m=20081218

6/24/09 - Jeff Jordan leaves (but is he coming back?)
http://www.herald-review.com/app/blogs/marktupper/ ?m=20090624

10/9/09 - Nnanna Egwu verbals

Some thoughts on 3-point shooting stats

As we know, Weber's offense is very friendly to 3-point shooters. Generally speaking, we live and die by the three-point shot and struggle a lot whenever our offense needs to go through the post. So, who will make these 3-point shots next year?

3PT stats for returning scholarship players.

'08-'09 Demetri McCamey 56-179, .313, 5.8 min/3PA
'07-'08 Demetri McCamey 50-147, .340, 6.5 min/3PA

Demetri McCamey ended the year in a shooting slump, which, given his large number of attempts, gave the impression that the whole team regressed. He showed that he can be an adequate shooter his freshman year, and hopefully we will have enough other options next season that he can pick his spots and shoot a higher percentage.

'08-'09 Alex Legion 12-50, .240, 4.9 min/3PA

Alex Legion wears #33, and he loves the 3-point shot. I assume he can make them in practice, and if whether or not he finds his rhythm from deep next year will likely determine how much he sees the court. Most likely he has nowhere to go but up from 24%.

'08-'09 Dominique Keller 9-22, .409, 19.5 min/3PA

Dominique can make 3-pointers. We are still going to need rebounding and interior play next year, so he can't fall in love with the 3. It is nice to know though that he can nail the 3 if he is unguarded or we are in a desperate situation.

'08-'09 Bill Cole 6-16, .375, 4.8 min/3PA
'07-'08 Bill Cole 3-10, .300, 8.1 min/3PA

Billy Bird/Billy Burner can scorch the nets. If he is going to get any meaningful minutes next year, it will be because he can and will shoot the 3. The question is if he can do anything that Dominique Keller can't do.

'08-'09 Mike Tisdale 1-5, .200, 168 min/3PA
'07-'08 Mike Tisdale 2-12, .167, 30.3 min/3PA

Mike Tisdale is a good shooter, but not from 3. Thankfully, he shows very little sign of falling in love with that shot, which bodes well for the future.

'08-'09 Jeff Jordan 1-3, .333, 92.7 min/3PA
'07-'08 Jeff Jordan 1-3, .333, 46.3 min/3PA

Although Jeff Jordan has many talents (he will never ever be in foul trouble), shooting the 3 isn't one of them. Even if he can make the shot, he almost never takes it. Weber's offense needs guys to shoot the 3 if we are going to score enough points.

'08-'09 Mike Davis 0-0, .000, NO 3PA
'07-'08 Mike Davis 0-0, .000, NO 3PA

I'm amazed that Davis has never jacked one up, even out of desperation or just for kicks. It shows good discipline and smart shot selection. He has a nice touch and as he extends his range, it's possible that he could drill a few 3's in clutch situations as a upperclassman a la Jack Ingram or Warren Carter (who actually became quite a long-range bomber). It's comforting to know that if he can't make it, he won't take it.

Richard Semrau also has no 3-point attempts in the last 2 years. Stats from his freshman year are nowhere to be found, and I will assume he won't shoot many (maybe not even any) 3's next year either.

Let's look at the overall numbers for returning players and 3's.

'08-'09 Returning Players (4142 min) 85-275, .309, 15.1 min/3PA
'08-'09 Overall (includes walkons) 188-537, .350, 12.8 min/3PA

The big worry here is that nobody will be able to hit a 3-pointer next season. The good news here (based on a larger min/3PA among returners) is that we have a lot of 3PA available for new players. Bottom line is that if we are going to improve next year, we will need our freshmen to shoot the 3 well, our returning players (mostly McCamey) to improve their shooting dramatically, or to find a way to rely much less on the 3-point shot. Given that we were 275th out of 344 in 3PA/FGA, we're likely to shoot more 3's next year, not fewer, so we will have to find a way to improve our long-range shooting.

Guaranteed Wrong Big Ten Basketball Projections

Just for kicks -- how might the Big Ten basketball season play out as of 2/11? I'll list the final standings and where the wins come from, so as not to be redundant. I'm not projecting many upsets so I'm certainly going to be wrong.

1. Michigan State 14-4 (Wisconsin, Iowa, @Indiana, Purdue)
2. Illinois 12-6 (@NW, @Indiana, PSU, Minnesota, MSU)
3. Ohio State 12-6 (@NW, Illinois, PSU, @Iowa, NW)
4. Purdue 12-6 (PSU, @Iowa, MSU, Indiana, tOSU, NW)
5. Minnesota 10-8 (NW, Wisconsin, Michigan)
6. Wisconsin 10-8 (Iowa, tOSU, Indiana, Michigan, @Indiana)
7. Penn State 9-9 (Minnesota, Indiana, Illinois)
8. Michigan 7-11 (Minnesota, Purdue)
9. Northwestern 7-11 (Michigan, @Indiana, Iowa)
10. Iowa 5-13 (Michigan, PSU)
11. Indiana 1-17

The current standings are

Michigan St.             20-4    10-2     
Illinois                 19-5     7-4     
Ohio St.                 17-5     7-4     
Purdue                   17-6     6-4     
Minnesota                19-5     7-5     
Penn St.                 17-7     6-5     
Wisconsin                14-9     5-6     
Michigan                 15-10    5-7     
Northwestern             13-8     4-6     
Iowa                     13-11    3-8     
Indiana                   6-17    1-10

In my opinion, that would put 6 Big Ten teams in the NCAA Tournament and
would make for a really fun Big Ten Tournament.