[Reposted from illiniboard]
At this point if we make the NCAA Tournament then the season is clearly a success and Weber will have done a good job. If we're under .500 (barring some outlandish scenario, like a crazed IOS leaping out of the stands with a machete and hacking our players' limbs off) then the season is a failure and Weber should go. For a 33 game regular season, clear success would likely be 22-11 or better and clear failure would be 16-17 or worse.
I'd put the over/under for next season at 20 wins, so it is likely that we'll end up somewhere in between success and failure. I then think that it won't come down to purely the W-L record, but the feel of how the team is responding to the coaches and if we are on track for success with young guys getting experience and more talented recruits arriving in 2009.
I think Weber did a better coaching job in the 23-12 season than in the 26-7 season before that (which had bad losses to PSU and Washington), but he didn't have as much talent in '06-'07 as the prior year. With recruiting on track, the talent level should be solid starting in November 2009 (and should maintain itself for at least 4 seasons).
What is in question is if Weber is the guy to get enough out of that talent. For most of his first 4 seasons, it looked clear that he was coaching well but recruiting horribly. Last season we had a strange reversal where he recruited well but coached horribly. (I'm not sure anyone saw that coming 12 months ago today.) Some will argue that it proves that he can't recruit and he can't coach, and others will argue the exact opposite. Next season should clear things up a bit.
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