Joe's Deep Thoughts

Big Ten Preview

2011-10-27T15:37:00.001-05:00

1. Ohio State
I hate Ohio State but they have a ton of talent and a dangerous habit of winning Big Ten Championships. I don't think they run away with it though. Sullinger is short and Diebler (one of my top 5 least favorite players ever) will be impossible to replace. I think they are more guardable this year and will take more bad shots.

2. Michigan State
I considered dropping these guys but I think Brandon Wood gives them a big boost. I think they have a very strong starting five and are free of last year's bad mojo.

3. Illinois
I think Illinois just has the physical specimens to wear out some of the other Big Ten teams. Turnover ratio is going to be the key stat for Illinois but Maniscalco is going to be the key to winning close games.

4. Wisconsin
Even the Wisconsin fans think they are a bit overrated. I'm not saying this won't be a solid team, but I think their insanely low turnover percentage from last year can't be duplicated. They have some solid players but nobody on their team scares me. I won't drop them too low because Bo knows winning.

5. Michigan
I kept watching those Michigan games last year and I couldn't believe how we were losing to those guys. They return almost everyone but Darius Morris was the heart and soul of their offense and they won't be able to replace him easily. Beilein is a very good coach but I like him more in a tournament setting than over the whole season. I'd pick Michigan higher than 5th in the Big Ten Tournament and they will win an NCAA game.

6. Minnesota
I think this is another team that had bad mojo last year and will bounce back a bit this time. Mbakwe is a beast and they have a solid crew there. I think this is a team that will shock some better teams with relentless offensive rebounding and occasional 3-point barrages.

7. Purdue

Moore and Johnson were Purdue basketball for four years. Hummel is an efficient scorer but he's not going to scare anyone. The rest of the roster seems like an annoying blend of second-tier talents that just get in your jersey.

8. Northwestern

I like some of the Northwestern players but I don't think they make the NCAA Tournament this year either. They have guys who can shoot but they don't have quite enough talent to beat enough of the top-tier teams to rise in the standings.

9. Indiana

I still have no respect for what is going on at Indiana. All hopes seem to be pinned on Cody Zeller and I don't think he gets it done. They still have way too many garbage players to be a real threat. Maybe next year they get some real talent but for now the irrational exuberance of the Indiana fans keeps trying to imagine an end to their time in the wilderness. It won't be this year.

10. Iowa

I actually like what is going on at Iowa but I still don't think they have any real talent. I do like their coach and I think there is some upside potential here but not enough consistency to win many games.

11. Nebraska

I haven't heard anything good about Nebraska basketball. The only thing I can say about them is that they aren't Penn State.

12. Penn State
Yuck.

Pre-Season Rotation Thoughts

2011-10-13T15:05:00.000-05:00

Here is an approximate depth chart for our basketball team:

PG - Maniscalco, Abrams, Langford
SG - Richardson, Head
SF - Paul, Bertrand
PF - Griffey, Shaw, Henry
C - Leonard, Egwu, Djimde

PG:
Maniscalco will probably be limited to 22-26 mpg because of his ankle. Abrams is the backup PG but he may not have mastered the position sufficiently at the college level yet. Langford is another option because of his passing skills, but his time will depend on Abrams' effectiveness and whether or not he can initiate the offense.

I see 2 guys in the rotation here on a regular basis.

SG:
DJ Richardson will start and has shown he can handle up to 30 mpg. However, he could have a shooting slump which would severely limit his effectiveness. Crandall Head has shown he can be a pest on defense and an energy guy that boosts the offense. So you have to give Crandall 8-12 mpg, possibly more if he blows up and starts to overshadow DJ.

I see 2 guys in the rotation here on a regular basis.

SF:
I believe Brandon Paul will get 30 mpg and will be our star player this year. He may also take some minutes at PG and SG. Bertrand certainly has some ability but the problem is that he doesn't seem to have his niche in the rotation. I see him getting some minutes early in the season but dropping out of the rotation unless he gives you something that another player can't. He is also great depth in case of injury.

I see 1 guy in the rotation here on a regular basis.

PF:
I think Tyler Griffey is our best shooter and will emerge as almost a default option to get a lot of shots in this year's offense. I don't know that he is terribly effective as a rebounder or a post defender, so that probably limits him to about 24 mpg. Mike Shaw is almost the anti-Griffey here in my mind, in that he gives you intangibles like rebounding and defense but not a lot of scoring. So he probably fills in the other 16 mpg and you can give a couple different looks depending on the situation. Myke Henry is more of a scorer if you need a smaller, quicker lineup.

I see 2 guys in the rotation here on a regular basis.

C:
I think Meyers Leonard is the starter here but he only gets about 20 mpg and he will be the player that (unfortunately) gets the most grief from the fans. Fans see 7'1" and a few highlight dunks and they want a superstar. I don't think he's there yet. I also see a lot of foul trouble. Nnanna Egwu is the backup here but after about 2 games fans will love his attitude and hustle and will be clamoring for him to start. The problem here is that he is also foul prone. Djimde is a big body that is great to have in reserve when both Leonard and Egwu get 2 fouls in the first half or other foul trouble. That will happen often but probably not more than about 4 mpg on average.

I see 2, maybe 3 guys in the rotation here on a regular basis.

In past years we have had mainly 8 man rotations but I think this year we are almost certain to have at least 9 men. Those 9 are:

Maniscalco, Abrams, Richardson, Head, Paul, Griffey, Shaw, Leonard, Egwu

Here's how I see the other 4 guys being used:

Langford - gets a few minutes here and there early in the season but hasn't quite put it together yet. I think they don't redshirt him because of concerns about PG depth, but ultimately Abrams proves to be a gamer and takes all his minutes. The Langford/Orris battle next year will be a fascinating matchup for minutes between a player with a high ceiling and one with a low floor.

Bertrand - I think he's in the rotation for a few weeks in the non-conference. He does some good things but starts to get buried behind our star players. He re-emerges later in the year when someone gets hurt or loses effectiveness. Think Crandall Head 2010-2011.

Henry - I think he has a lot of upside but just won't be able to put it together as a freshman. He'll look good in exhibitions but he's in that awkward Warren Carter role where they just can't figure out how to use him effectively as a young player, especially with weaknesses on defense. I think he disappears this year but is a starter down the road when he goes from a PF back to a SF. Or I'm totally wrong about him and he is our "out of nowhere" emerging star and makes my whole post look stupid. I'm torn because he sounded like the biggest stud in our recruiting class last spring but seemed like a non-factor in Italy. This PF thing seems like a poor fit for him.

Djimde - He reminds me of Marcus Arnold on an Illini team with a little more talent. He strikes me as the clear #3 center but there is a definite role for him. 4 mpg when we have foul trouble and a great guy to work in during garbage time. I think he is 4 years of quality depth and great insurance if Leonard and/or Egwu really blow up and go pro early. I also think he's a great "banger" to have around in practice to make sure our bigs aren't soft. Fans will like him just because we needed those attributes so much the last couple years.

Stat Projections

2011-06-06T13:47:00.001-05:00

My projections for next season:

DJ Richardson - 32 mpg, 11.7 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 2.3 apg
Brandon Paul - 28 mpg, 12.3 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 2.0 apg
Meyers Leonard - 24 mpg, 8.4 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 0.6 apg
Sam Maniscalco - 24 mpg, 8.0 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 4.5 apg
Nnanna Egwu - 16 mpg, 4.7 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 0.5 apg
Tracy Abrams - 16 mpg, 5.3 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 2.7 apg
Mike Henry - 16 mpg, 4.0 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 0.5 apg
Tyler Griffey - 16 mpg, 4.0 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 0.2 apg
Mike Shaw - 16 mpg, 3.6 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 0.4 apg
Crandall Head - 12 mpg, 6.0 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 1.2 apg
Joe Bertrand - bench
Devin Langford - bench
Ibrahima Djimde - bench
Team - 3.2 rpg

Total - 200 mpg, 68.0 ppg, 34.4 rpg, 14.9 apg

Dunk Tracker

2011-03-08T16:49:00.002-05:00

Total (31 games) - 107
(Davis 36, Tisdale 25, Leonard 13, Paul 12, Richmond 12, Cole 3, Richardson 3, Griffey 1, Head 1, Bertrand 1)

vs. Indiana
(Davis 1 Leonard 1 Richmond 1 Bertrand 1)
vs. Purdue
0
vs. Iowa
6 (Richardson 1 Tisdale 3 Davis 2)
vs. Ohio State
4 (Tisdale 1 Davis 2 Richmond 1)
vs. Michigan State
1 (Paul 1)
vs. Michigan
2 (Richardson 1 Tisdale 1)
vs. Purdue
5 (Davis 2 Paul 1 Tisdale 2)
vs. Minnesota
1 (Davis 1)
vs. Northwestern
5 (Tisdale 1 Davis 2 Leonard 1 Richmond 1)
vs. Penn State
6 (Davis 5 Tisdale 1)
vs. Indiana
3 (Davis 1 Cole 1 Richmond 1)
vs. Ohio State
3 (Leonard 1 Davis 1 Tisdale 1)
vs. Michigan State
3 (Richmond 2 Davis 1)
vs. Wisconsion
0
vs. Penn State
3 (Tisdale 1 Paul 1 Davis 1)
vs. Northwestern
6 (Tisdale 2 Leonard 2 Davis 1 Head 1)
vs. Wisconsin
3 (Cole 1 Davis 1 Leonard 1)
vs. Iowa
3 (Tisdale 1 Davis 2)
vs. Missouri
2 (Tisdale 2 )
vs. UIC
2 (Richardson 1 Leonard 1)
vs. Northern Colorado
4 (Davis 2 Richmond 1 Griffey 1)
vs. Oakland
2 (Richmond 2)
vs. Gonzaga
2 (Davis 1, Cole 1)
vs. North Carolina
5 (Davis 3, Richmond 1, Leonard 1)
vs. WMU
4 (Davis 1, Tisdale 1, Paul 1, Richmond 1)
vs. Yale
8 (Paul 3, Tisdale 2, Leonard 2, Davis 1)
vs. Maryland
3 (Leonard 2, Davis 1)
vs. Texas
4 (Tisdale 2, Paul 1, Richmond 1)
vs. SIU
7 (Davis 3, Tisdale 2, Paul 1, Leonard 1)
vs. Toledo
5 (Paul 3, Tisdale 2)
vs. UC Irvine
1 (Davis 1)

Total - 31 games

Dunk Tracker

2010-12-13T10:18:00.001-05:00

vs. Northern Colorado
4 (Davis 2 Richmond 1 Griffey 1)
vs. Oakland
2 (Richmond 2)
vs. Gonzaga
2 (Davis 1, Cole 1)
vs. North Carolina
5 (Davis 3, Richmond 1, Leonard 1)
vs. WMU
4 (Davis 1, Tisdale 1, Paul 1, Richmond 1)
vs. Yale
8 (Paul 3, Tisdale 2, Leonard 2, Davis 1)
vs. Maryland
3 (Leonard 2, Davis 1)
vs. Texas
4 (Tisdale 2, Paul 1, Richmond 1)
vs. SIU
7 (Davis 3, Tisdale 2, Paul 1, Leonard 1)
vs. Toledo
5 (Paul 3, Tisdale 2)
vs. UC Irvine
1 (Davis 1)

Total - 11 games
45 (Davis 13, Paul 9, Tisdale 9, Leonard 6, Richmond 6, Cole 1, Griffey 1)

Dunk Tracker (after Gonzaga)

2010-12-06T14:08:00.001-05:00

vs. Gonzaga
2 (Davis 1, Cole 1)
vs. North Carolina
5 (Davis 3, Richmond 1, Leonard 1)
vs. WMU
4 (Davis 1, Tisdale 1, Paul 1, Richmond 1)
vs. Yale
8 (Paul 3, Tisdale 2, Leonard 2, Davis 1)
vs. Maryland
3 (Leonard 2, Davis 1)
vs. Texas
4 (Tisdale 2, Paul 1, Richmond 1)
vs. SIU
7 (Davis 3, Tisdale 2, Paul 1, Leonard 1)
vs. Toledo
5 (Paul 3, Tisdale 2)
vs. UC Irvine
1 (Davis 1)

Total - 9 games
39 (Davis 11, Paul 9, Tisdale 9, Leonard 6, Richmond 3, Cole 1)

Dunk Tracker

2010-12-01T11:00:00.002-05:00

vs. North Carolina
5 (Davis 3, Richmond 1, Leonard 1)
vs. WMU
4 (Davis 1, Tisdale 1, Paul 1, Richmond 1)
vs. Yale
8 (Paul 3, Tisdale 2, Leonard 2, Davis 1)
vs. Maryland
3 (Leonard 2, Davis 1)
vs. Texas
4 (Tisdale 2, Paul 1, Richmond 1)
vs. SIU
7 (Davis 3, Tisdale 2, Paul 1, Leonard 1)
vs. Toledo
5 (Paul 3, Tisdale 2)
vs. UC Irvine
1 (Davis 1)

Total - 6 games
37 (Davis 10, Paul 9, Tisdale 9, Leonard 6, Richmond 3)

Preseason Rotation Projection

2010-09-24T11:26:00.003-05:00

Here's last year's rotation first (total minutes divided by 36.5 games)

McCamey - 34.0
Davis - 31.8
Richardson - 30.5
Tisdale - 27.6
Cole - 21.0
Paul - 18.7
Jordan - 12.4
Keller - 10.9
Griffey - 7.4
Legion - 3.0
Semrau - 1.8
Simpson - 0.5
Chisholm - 0.4

Total - 200.0

We are returning 171.0 mpg (roughly 4.25 out of 5 spots). That leaves 29.0 mpg open to divide between 4 freshmen (Richmond, Head, Leonard, and Bertrand) so the battle for playing time is going to be fierce. It's clear that returning players aren't resting on their laurels because all 4 new players have talent and are going to be trying to take their minutes. Some guys had to play more than they should have because of a lack of depth. I'm guessing that won't be a problem this year.

Here's how I think it plays out. My projection rounds to the nearest 4 mpg (TV timeout) since it's just a rough estimate and I don't want to worry about garbage time (hopefully we'll have a lot of that this year!)

*McCamey - 32 mpg
*Davis - 28 mpg
*Richardson - 28 mpg
*Tisdale - 28 mpg
*Richmond - 24 mpg
Paul - 20 mpg
Griffey - 12 mpg
Cole - 8 mpg
Head - 8 mpg
Leonard - 8 mpg
Bertrand - 4 mpg

Usually Weber will pare his rotation down to 8 or 9 guys by the end of the year. We have 7 returning players and 4 new players. 6 of the 7 are locks for the rotation with Cole being the only guy who could get squeezed out by a more talented player. However, it would be foolish to write him off too soon. Crandall Head and Joe Bertrand will both be gunning for his minutes and if they can defend and find some way to score then they might get them. I think Leonard could emerge by the end of the season and take that last rotation spot since he is a unique talent and our only true backup center. If anyone gets hurt there is plenty of depth and guys are just waiting for their chance to play. With only 4 upperclassmen on the roster, the 7 young guns will give us an exciting glimpse of future Illini basketball teams that will hope to dominate the Big Ten.

'09-'10 Rotation Review

2010-09-24T10:59:00.007-05:00

I'm going back to my last post to see how the rotation compared to my preseason prediction.

My projection is going to round to the nearest 4 minutes just for simplicity and also so I don't have to worry
about garbage time. Here goes:

*McCamey - 28 mpg
Actual - 34.0 mpg
I underestimated McCamey's minutes because he was forced into extra time because we basically
had no backup PG.
*Davis - 28 mpg
Actual - 31.8 mpg
I underestimated Davis's minutes because Stan Simpson and Richard Semrau were non-factors and
Dominique Keller regressed as a senior.
*Tisdale - 24 mpg
Actual - 27.6 mpg
Tisdale improved a lot in terms of stamina and consistency so he earned extra minutes. We also
had less depth than expected at the center position.
*Richardson - 24 mpg
Actual - 30.5 mpg
DJ Richardson was an unexpectedly awesome 3-point shooter. He also defended well so Weber
rewarded him with tons of minutes. We also had the unexpected Legion implosion which changed our
entire backcourt rotation.
*Legion - 24 mpg
Actual - 3.0 mpg
Alex Legion seemed like a good kid but he was an unbelievable flameout at Illinois last season.
He just never got it going and was incredibly inefficient.
Paul - 20 mpg
Actual - 18.7 mpg
I was pretty close with this one. Paul showed flashes and I still love his potential, but he
took and missed way too many shots from long range. He has a ton of room for improvement when
it comes to efficiency. I have faith in him not turning into Alex Legion Jr.
Keller - 16 mpg
Actual - 10.9 mpg
Keller just wouldn't rebound or defend. He was phased out as the season went on because he
didn't have a team-first attitude. Addition by subtraction this year?
Griffey - 8 mpg
Actual - 7.4 mpg
I think Tyler Griffey is a great player and looked really good as a freshman. The dude can
really shoot. It's amazing. He couldn't defend the rim but if he figures that out he will be a
total stud. I think Weber's biggest regret from last year was not getting Griffey more PT.
Jordan - 8 mpg
Actual - 12.4 mpg
Jeff Jordan is a great kid and gave us everything he had. I was amazed at how many minutes he
got despite not being able to shoot or really initiate the offense other than taking the ball up
the court. Still, he was the closest thing we had to a backup PG and the whole Jordan thing was
way cool.
Cole - 8 mpg
Actual - 21.0 mpg
Bill Cole was the biggest beneficiary of the Alex Legion implosion. He basically did what Legion
was supposed to do - make some 3's and try really hard. I love his floorburn attitude and his
leadership. He may be the least talented guy on our team next year but he will work hard and
find a way to make a positive impact and Weber loves to reward those guys with playing time.
Bertrand - 4 mpg
Actual - 0 mpg
I was saddened by Joe Bertrand's injury. Fortunately he was able to take a redshirt year and
apparently made the most of it. Now he is strong enough to compete and I want to see him get
crazy in the open court with that 45" vertical.
Simpson - 4 mpg
Actual - 0.5 mpg
Stan Simpson didn't take care of business and actually got buried below Bubba Chisholm on the
depth chart. We needed someone with his talents but he never stepped up. Now we'll always
wonder what might have been. Say hi to Brian Carlwell for us.
Semrau - 4 mpg
Actual - 1.8 mpg
I don't know exactly where things went wrong. I think Rich got a little beat up his freshman year
and lost his love for the game. He kept his nose clean and gave what he could. Tyler Griffey is
what I thought Rich Semrau would be.

Preseason Rotation Projection

2009-10-15T16:09:00.001-05:00

Here's last year's rotation first (total minutes divided by 34.25 games)

Meacham - 30.5 mpg
Davis - 30.5 mpg
McCamey - 30.4 mpg
Frazier - 30.0 mpg
Tisdale - 24.6 mpg
Brock - 17.3 mpg
Keller - 12.5 mpg
Jordan - 8.1 mpg
Legion - 7.1 mpg
Semrau - 5.5 mpg
Cole - 2.2 mpg
Jackson - 0.6 mpg
Chisholm - 0.5 mpg
(Total - 199.8 mpg, not 200 because of rounding)

Assuming Jordan comes back, we are returning 121.4 mpg (roughly 3 out of 5 spots). That leaves 78.6 mpg to divide between 5 new players (Richardson, Paul, Griffey, Bertrand, and Simpson) so the battle for playing time is going to be fierce.

My projection is going to round to the nearest 4 minutes just for simplicity and also so I don't have to worry about garbage time. Here goes:

*McCamey - 28 mpg
*Davis - 28 mpg
*Tisdale - 24 mpg
*Richardson - 24 mpg
*Legion - 24 mpg
Paul - 20 mpg
Keller - 16 mpg
Griffey - 8 mpg
Jordan - 8 mpg
Cole - 8 mpg
Bertrand - 4 mpg
Simpson - 4 mpg
Semrau - 4 mpg

I think Weber mixes things up a little bit early in the season so a lot of the bench guys will get a few minutes to show what they can do. Once it gets closer to Big Ten season, I think we will see Semrau, Simpson, Bertrand, and Cole relegated to garbage time and we will have our 9-man rotation.

In my mind, it's not hard to figure out the five starters. Some may wonder about Legion, but if he proves he can play defense he has the right mix of talent, size, and experience to claim a spot. Once you have the starters, Keller and Paul are the first subs off the bench and they allow you lots of flexibility with the substitution patterns. Jordan is a nice defensive stopper and backup PG. I also think Griffey fills in nicely for the Mikes when we have foul trouble, although his spot could easily be taken by Semrau or Simpson if they show more rebounding ability and toughness in the paint.

I think Weber likes Cole but he dreads the zone defense so much that he'll never be totally comfortable with that wrinkle and it's only Plan B if Legion can't make 3-pointers or one of the freshmen guards hits the wall. Semrau seems to fade to the bench as the year goes on. Stan Simpson intrigues me but I don't think he impresses the coaches enough in practice. I will be looking closely and hoping I'm wrong on that one.

3-Year Recruiting Turnaround Timeline

2009-10-15T16:04:00.000-05:00

10/13/06 - Eric Gordon bolts for IU.
http://www.herald-review.com/app/blogs/marktupper/ ?m=20061013

11/23/06 - Jereme Richmond verbals
http://www.herald-review.com/app/blogs/marktupper/ ?p=299

1/8/07 - Quinton Watkins verbals

2/13/07 - Jamar Smith/Brian Carlwell accident
http://www.herald-review.com/app/blogs/marktupper/ ?m=20070213

4/17/07 - Rodney Alexander verbals

4/28/07 - Jeff Jordan verbals (walk-on)
http://www.herald-review.com/app/blogs/marktupper/ ?m=20070428

6/27/07 - Liggins to Kentucky

7/16/07 - Dunigan/Humphrey to Oregon

8/7/07 - Iman Shumpert eliminates Illinois (maybe this happened earlier)

8/14/07 - Mike Davis verbals/signs
http://www.herald-review.com/app/blogs/marktupper/ ?m=20070814

8/15/07 - Scott Suggs to Washington

8/28/07 - Quinton Watkins ruled ineligible
http://www.herald-review.com/app/blogs/marktupper/ ?m=200708

9/5/07 Tracy Webster leaves for Kentucky
http://www.herald-review.com/app/blogs/marktupper/ ?m=20070906

9/7/07 - Darius Miller to Kentucky

9/19/07 - Jerrance Howard hired
http://www.herald-review.com/app/blogs/marktupper/ ?m=20070919

10/11/07 - DJ Richardson, Brandon Paul, and Joseph Bertrand verbal
http://www.herald-review.com/app/blogs/marktupper/ ?m=20071012

10/15/07 - Stan Simpson verbals
http://www.herald-review.com/app/blogs/marktupper/ ?m=20071015

12/21/07 - Alex Legion transfers
http://www.herald-review.com/app/blogs/marktupper/?m=20071222

1/6/08 - Crandall Head verbals
http://www.herald-review.com/app/blogs/marktupper/ ?m=20080106

1/31/08 - Tyler Griffey verbals

2/20/08 - Brian Carlwell leaves
http://www.herald-review.com/app/blogs/marktupper/ ?m=20080220

3/10/08 - Dominique Keller verbals

4/15/08 - Alexander leaves
http://www.herald-review.com/app/blogs/marktupper/ ?m=20080415

7/29/08 - Meyers Leonard verbals

7/31/08 - Jamar Smith dismissed from team

12/18/08 - Tracy Abrams verbals
http://www.herald-review.com/app/blogs/marktupper/ ?m=20081218

6/24/09 - Jeff Jordan leaves (but is he coming back?)
http://www.herald-review.com/app/blogs/marktupper/ ?m=20090624

10/9/09 - Nnanna Egwu verbals

Some thoughts on 3-point shooting stats

2009-03-22T15:15:00.001-05:00

As we know, Weber's offense is very friendly to 3-point shooters. Generally speaking, we live and die by the three-point shot and struggle a lot whenever our offense needs to go through the post. So, who will make these 3-point shots next year?

3PT stats for returning scholarship players.

'08-'09 Demetri McCamey 56-179, .313, 5.8 min/3PA
'07-'08 Demetri McCamey 50-147, .340, 6.5 min/3PA

Demetri McCamey ended the year in a shooting slump, which, given his large number of attempts, gave the impression that the whole team regressed. He showed that he can be an adequate shooter his freshman year, and hopefully we will have enough other options next season that he can pick his spots and shoot a higher percentage.

'08-'09 Alex Legion 12-50, .240, 4.9 min/3PA

Alex Legion wears #33, and he loves the 3-point shot. I assume he can make them in practice, and if whether or not he finds his rhythm from deep next year will likely determine how much he sees the court. Most likely he has nowhere to go but up from 24%.

'08-'09 Dominique Keller 9-22, .409, 19.5 min/3PA

Dominique can make 3-pointers. We are still going to need rebounding and interior play next year, so he can't fall in love with the 3. It is nice to know though that he can nail the 3 if he is unguarded or we are in a desperate situation.

'08-'09 Bill Cole 6-16, .375, 4.8 min/3PA
'07-'08 Bill Cole 3-10, .300, 8.1 min/3PA

Billy Bird/Billy Burner can scorch the nets. If he is going to get any meaningful minutes next year, it will be because he can and will shoot the 3. The question is if he can do anything that Dominique Keller can't do.

'08-'09 Mike Tisdale 1-5, .200, 168 min/3PA
'07-'08 Mike Tisdale 2-12, .167, 30.3 min/3PA

Mike Tisdale is a good shooter, but not from 3. Thankfully, he shows very little sign of falling in love with that shot, which bodes well for the future.

'08-'09 Jeff Jordan 1-3, .333, 92.7 min/3PA
'07-'08 Jeff Jordan 1-3, .333, 46.3 min/3PA

Although Jeff Jordan has many talents (he will never ever be in foul trouble), shooting the 3 isn't one of them. Even if he can make the shot, he almost never takes it. Weber's offense needs guys to shoot the 3 if we are going to score enough points.

'08-'09 Mike Davis 0-0, .000, NO 3PA
'07-'08 Mike Davis 0-0, .000, NO 3PA

I'm amazed that Davis has never jacked one up, even out of desperation or just for kicks. It shows good discipline and smart shot selection. He has a nice touch and as he extends his range, it's possible that he could drill a few 3's in clutch situations as a upperclassman a la Jack Ingram or Warren Carter (who actually became quite a long-range bomber). It's comforting to know that if he can't make it, he won't take it.

Richard Semrau also has no 3-point attempts in the last 2 years. Stats from his freshman year are nowhere to be found, and I will assume he won't shoot many (maybe not even any) 3's next year either.

Let's look at the overall numbers for returning players and 3's.

'08-'09 Returning Players (4142 min) 85-275, .309, 15.1 min/3PA
'08-'09 Overall (includes walkons) 188-537, .350, 12.8 min/3PA

The big worry here is that nobody will be able to hit a 3-pointer next season. The good news here (based on a larger min/3PA among returners) is that we have a lot of 3PA available for new players. Bottom line is that if we are going to improve next year, we will need our freshmen to shoot the 3 well, our returning players (mostly McCamey) to improve their shooting dramatically, or to find a way to rely much less on the 3-point shot. Given that we were 275th out of 344 in 3PA/FGA, we're likely to shoot more 3's next year, not fewer, so we will have to find a way to improve our long-range shooting.

Guaranteed Wrong Big Ten Basketball Projections

2009-02-11T18:17:00.004-05:00

Just for kicks -- how might the Big Ten basketball season play out as of 2/11? I'll list the final standings and where the wins come from, so as not to be redundant. I'm not projecting many upsets so I'm certainly going to be wrong.

1. Michigan State 14-4 (Wisconsin, Iowa, @Indiana, Purdue)
2. Illinois 12-6 (@NW, @Indiana, PSU, Minnesota, MSU)
3. Ohio State 12-6 (@NW, Illinois, PSU, @Iowa, NW)
4. Purdue 12-6 (PSU, @Iowa, MSU, Indiana, tOSU, NW)
5. Minnesota 10-8 (NW, Wisconsin, Michigan)
6. Wisconsin 10-8 (Iowa, tOSU, Indiana, Michigan, @Indiana)
7. Penn State 9-9 (Minnesota, Indiana, Illinois)
8. Michigan 7-11 (Minnesota, Purdue)
9. Northwestern 7-11 (Michigan, @Indiana, Iowa)
10. Iowa 5-13 (Michigan, PSU)
11. Indiana 1-17

The current standings are

Michigan St.             20-4    10-2     
Illinois                 19-5     7-4     
Ohio St.                 17-5     7-4     
Purdue                   17-6     6-4     
Minnesota                19-5     7-5     
Penn St.                 17-7     6-5     
Wisconsin                14-9     5-6     
Michigan                 15-10    5-7     
Northwestern             13-8     4-6     
Iowa                     13-11    3-8     
Indiana                   6-17    1-10

In my opinion, that would put 6 Big Ten teams in the NCAA Tournament and
would make for a really fun Big Ten Tournament.

Illinois Basketball 2008-2009: Month 1 Review

2008-12-11T19:08:00.002-05:00

Illini basketball is currently on a 10-day hiatus for final exams after playing 10 games. They certainly exceeded my expectations, as they currently boast a 9-1 record with their only loss coming by a mere 2 points. It turns out that Georgia was a pushover but the other 4 games were competitive, as expected. I will try to do a month 2 preview a little later, but I might not get the chance since I will be on travel and it is tough to make a detailed posting using only an iPhone.

Let's take a look at the rotation and cumulative stats and see what was unexpected or interesting about the first month of the season. As always, I am using stats available on fightingillini.com .

Rotation (minutes per game):
The rotation hasn't offered many surprises. The only major deviation from preseason expecations is that Calvin Brock only gets 16 mpg compared to the expected 24 mpg. Last year he got 22.1 mpg so his role has diminished. He is struggling with his shooting (.383 FG%, .200 3PT%, and .533 FT%) so he is spending more time on the bench.

FG%/FGA:
The two players with the most FGA are Mike Davis and Demetri McCamey, who uncoincidentally are our leading scorers. At least that means we don't have any chuckers on the team who are killing our offense. Of our 9-man rotation, the worst FG% is Brock at .383 and the best is Keller at .560. Maybe we should get Keller some more shots. Perhaps the most notable thing is that our team FG% so far has improved to .474 from .435 last year. That is substantial improvement.

3PT%/3PA:
Our only notable 3-point shooters are our 3 starting guards. That is probably how it should be. One disturbing stat is that McCamey has the most 3PA but only makes 29.8% of his 3's. This suggests that Demetri is falling in love with the 3 a bit and should hold off from trying contested or off-rhythm bombs. Frazier is limiting his 3's and as such is shooting nearly 40%. Meacham is doing a great job taking a lot of 3's and making nearly 44% of them.

FT%/FTA:
We are making 71% of our free throws this year compared to only 61% last year. That is a big improvement, although we have been slipping a bit lately. Thankfully, some of that is because our garbage time players are bringing down the average. Most of our main guys are very solid at the line and I have total confidence in them this year.

Rebounds:
Rebounding has become a big weakness lately. The bottom line is that Mike Davis is our only solid rebounder with his 8.7 rpg. Tisdale and the backup big men need to step it up because we are letting up a lot of second chance points in the paint. That could lead to a lot of defeats in month 2.

Assists:
All 3 of our starting guards have at least a 1.8 A/TO ratio. Chester Frazier has a silly number of assists so far and has been doing an outstanding job.

Points:
We have four players averaging at least 9.9 ppg: Davis, McCamey, Meacham, and Tisdale. We are getting a solid, balanced scoring output from our starters. Frazier is more a distributor but he fills that role well. The key is to get a little more consistency and balance on a game-to-game basis, as some wild fluctuations have sort of averaged themselves out.

Super sophomores?

2008-12-03T18:07:00.001-05:00

One of the biggest questions this year would be how our sophomores develop. Not only are they key players this season, but they will lay the foundation for the next two seasons. We have seven sophomores on the roster so let's look at how they are doing so far.

Mike Davis - 29.6 mpg, 14.9 ppg, 9.4 rpg, 1.4 apg
Demetri McCamey - 32.6 mpg, 13.1 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 4.3 apg
Mike Tisdale - 22.1 mpg, 8.6 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 0.3 apg
Richard Semrau - 15.1 mpg, 2.7 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 0.4 apg
Jeff Jordan - 9.3 mpg, 1.1 ppg, 0.3 rpg, 0.3 apg
Bill Cole - 3.0 mpg, 0.6 ppg, 0.6 rpg, 0.3 apg
Alex Legion - not eligible

Our sophomore class combines for 56% of our minutes, 60% of our scoring (41/68 ppg), 65% of our rebounding (not counting team rebounds), and 40% of our assists. That is very solid.

5 of the 9 players in our rotation are sophomores. I think Legion takes all of Jordan's minutes, so I'm going to ignore both of them for now and focus on the four major contributors. McCamey, Davis, and Tisdale are starters and Semrau is a key backup.

The common thread with these four is that they all have talent but they also need to improve their overall game and their consistency. McCamey (23), Davis (28), and Tisdale (20) have already all had at least one 20-point game and Semrau has a high of 9. Nobody else on the team has broken the 20-point mark. All four have been shut down at times, with low scores of 8 for McCamey, 2 for Davis, and 0 for Tisdale and Semrau. McCamey gets very sloppy at times on both sides of the floor, Davis and Tisdale are both rail thin, and Semrau is still trying to gain confidence and needs to finish opportunities around the hoop.

Overall, I'd have to say that these four have performed better than expected (McCamey may be about what we expected) and have been the reason for the somewhat surprising 6-1 start. Davis is a budding star, Tisdale is a clutch finisher, and Semrau is our muscle in the post.

Add two more years and Alex Legion to this group and you have an NCAA Tournament team. Add two more classes of stud recruits (including the redshirting Simpson) and you have a special team. If the future looked bright a month ago, it is going supernova now.

Box Score Breakdown - First 2 Games

2008-11-18T18:50:00.003-05:00

If you are like me, chances are you missed some or all of the online feeds for the first two Illini games so you only have a few postgame reports and two box scores to look at after two games. The TV situation for the Vanderbilt game is even worse (FSN Midwest isn't exactly a national cable network). So while we may not be 100% sure what Dominique Keller or Bubba Chisholm looks like, we do know that the Illini are 2-0 and that stats are available on fightingillini.com. So let's see what has happened through two games.

Minutes per game:
Since I posted a guess at the early rotation, let's see where there are significant deviations (>4 mpg) from what I expected. It turns out there are only two, and they are related:
Jeff Jordan (15.5 mpg, 8 mpg expected) and Calvin Brock (15.5 mpg, 24 mpg expected). Although MJ in the house didn't hurt JJ's minutes, I suspect that the real story here is the lack of impact Brock is having on the game. He is known for inconsistent effort, and 1-8 shooting is not going to cut it from him. Jeff Jordan is no chump, and I expect that Coach Weber will reward him with starts and minutes whenever one of the other guards does not live up to his high standards. Otherwise things are about as expected in terms of minutes. It is interesting to see Brock starting in place of McCamey, but I suspect that is to motivate Demetri to live up to his potential.

FG%
Trent Meacham is shooting over 61%, which is excellent for a guard. He may be the top performer so far. Mike Davis is also solid at 60% which means he is efficient at the PF spot. We are getting horrible shooting from our centers, which is a real problem. Tisdale is shooting 29% and Semrau is even worse at 20%. These wouldn't be acceptable numbers if they were Frazier's 3PT%, but coming from centers they are atrocious. This should be more like 60%. Unless this improves quickly, I'd expect to see a lot more of Davis at center with Keller or Cole at PF. Maybe you even play Stan Simpson if you get desperate. The team is shooting 44% (an okay number), which means that at least the right people are taking most of the shots.

3PT%
Meacham and McCamey each have 9 3FGA, Frazier has 4, and nobody else has more than 1. That is very good to see, as lazy or desperate long-range chucking from non-shooters could easily sink this team (especially since they aren't making any). McCamey is shooting 33% from 3 (a reasonable number for 9 attempts) and Meacham is scorching at 67%. He pulls our team average up to 39%, which is solid.

FT%
Free throws were the bane of the '07-'08 Illini's existence, and they shot a miserable 60.8%, with no player above 75% from the line. That was absurd, and with so many close games (and missed front ends of 1-and-1's) it added up to several agonizing defeats. Pruitt and Randle were the main offenders here, so improvement was expected this season. So far we are shooting a healthy 70% from the line, which is a healthy improvement. Our top 9 players are shooting a combined 74%, which is even more encouraging. Perhaps the most amazing stat is that Chester Frazier is on pace to make 64 free throws this year, as opposed to only 27 last year. That one sentence should give all Illini fans hope for the season.

Rebounds
The Illini are outrebounding their opponents 81-65 (8 rpg). Our front line (Tisdale, Semrau, Davis, Keller) are averaging the following #'s of rebounds per 40 minutes:
Tisdale - 9
Semrau - 13.3
Davis - 14.3
Keller - 14

Compare those numbers to our top 4 rotation rebounders last year:
Pruitt - 10.8
Randle - 8.7
Alexander - 8.5
Davis - 6.9

A few observations from this data:

*Frazier doesn't really rebound at a higher rate than the bigs. It is just that he rebounds well for a guard and plays so many more minutes per game than most of the bigs. He is not in the top 4 in terms of rebounds per 40 minutes in either season.

*We lost our top 3 rebounders from last season, so it was fair to wonder if we could rebound effectively this year.

*Our rebounding numbers are far superior so far this season, but it is tough to compare given that so far we've only had 2 games against low-major teams without much of an inside presence.

*Davis is a good rebounder -- better than Tisdale. I suspect Tisdale's rebounding struggles are what made most people question our rebounding ability for the season. Both Keller and Semrau are new to the rotation this year and appear to be solid rebounders. Tisdale is the only real weak link here, but he only gets 20 mpg so I think any softness on his part will be compensated for by Frazier's rebounding. Expect us to be just fine on the boards this year.

Fouls:
No Illini player has more than 6 fouls through 2 games. That suggests that foul trouble will not be a major factor this year, which is certainly encouraging. Usually this is only a big concern when you have a dominant big man (seniors like Brian Cook or Robert Archibald) or if you are starting Brian Randle on your team.

I'm not Brumby or Bruce Weber, so I won't try to analyze pace or defense. I imagine both will be similar to last season, although it will be interesting to see how our interior defense performs with less bulk but more shot-blocking.

After this analysis, I'd say there are three keys to the Vanderbilt game, and they are all related and have to do with shooting.

*The right players have to take the shots. Mike Davis needs a steady diet of mid-range shots and Meacham and McCamey should be the only 3-point shooters. Everyone else should be trying to attack the rim and get to the line.

*Either Meacham or McCamey to be hot from 3. I'm talking >50% and at least 5 attempts. Otherwise we likely don't break 60.

*We need improved production from the center position. Tisdale and Semrau average 34 minutes, 11 shots, and 4 FTA combined. Given that, we need them to total 13-14 or more points (instead of their lame 8.5 combined average). To give you an idea of the importance of 5 points, if you add 5 ppg in regulation to last year's team we go from 16-19 to 23-12, which is the difference between the '07-'08 nightmare and the decent '06-'07 season.

While I may have to resort to smoke signals to follow Thursday's game vs. Vanderbilt, I will be rooting hard for a fun Illini team and hoping for an upset victory!

Lemme Lemme Upgrade Ya

2008-11-12T16:04:00.004-05:00

Hooray! Signing Day has arrived! Illinois signs four outstanding players: DJ Richardson, Brandon Paul, Joseph Bertrand, and Tyler Griffey. I think the first two will play a lot next year and the other two will be key members of the rotation as upperclassmen.

I don't watch HS basketball and I'm not any good at video scouting, etc. So in order to channel my excitement I will engage in rampant speculation as to next year's rotation. I've never seen any of the four signees or Alex Legion in any kind of Illini game action, so I hope any readers will accept that I most likely don't know what I'm doing here. That's never stopped me before, so let's go!

I've already mentioned the five players we are adding to the roster next year (not counting walk-ons), but we will be losing a lot of players. Here is where the title comes in, as you will quickly see how we are getting a massive upgrade at maybe all five spots.

Trent Meacham will be replaced by Brandon Paul
Calvin Brock will be replaced by Joseph Bertrand
Chester Frazier will be replaced by DJ Richardson
CJ Jackson will be replaced by Tyler Griffey
Alex Legion will be eligible.

With that in mind, let me guess at next year's rotation (in a similar format to the previous post):

Starters: (128 mpg combined)
Demetri McCamey - 28 mpg
DJ Richardson - 28 mpg
Alex Legion - 28 mpg
Mike Davis - 24 mpg
Mike Tisdale - 20 mpg

Bench: (72 mpg combined)
Brandon Paul - 24 mpg
Bill Cole - 12 mpg
Richard Semrau - 12 mpg
Dominique Keller - 12 mpg
Stan Simpson - 12 mpg

Not Playing:
Joseph Bertrand (redshirt)
Tyler Griffey (redshirt)
Jeff Jordan (bench)

I have both Bertrand and Griffey redshirting but either one of them could play and contribute. How does it sort by position?

PG (1): McCamey (28), Richardson (12)
SG (2): Richardson (16), Paul (24)
SF (3): Legion (28), Cole (12)
PF (4): Davis (24), Keller (12), Simpson (4)
C (5): Tisdale (20), Semrau (12), Simpson (8)

Now that is an NCAA Tournament team, with quality talent at every position and a deep bench.

(Update to previous post: @Vandy is tape-delayed on FCS-Atlantic and it looks like all the South Padre games will be on that channel as well, assuming we are in the South Padre final.)

Illinois Basketball 2008-2009: Month 1 Preview

2008-11-10T18:24:00.003-05:00

Illinois basketball has 31 regular season games scheduled. Normally one would divide the season into non-conference and conference games, but given that we are expecting to add Alex Legion on December 20th, I thought it would make more sense to look first at the 10 games we play without him. Here they are:

11/14 vs. Eastern Washington
11/16 vs. Texas A&M - Corpus Christi
11/20 @ Vanderbilt
11/23 vs. Jackson State
11/28 vs. Kent State (South Padre)
11/29 vs. Texas A&M or Tulsa (South Padre)
12/02 vs. Clemson (ACC/Big Ten Challenge)
12/06 vs. Georgia (United Center)
12/08 vs. Hawaii
12/10 vs. Chicago State

I have no idea how we will do against this slate, but it looks like there are five cupcakes and five challenges. The five cupcakes are Eastern Washington, Tex. A&M - CC, Jackson State, Hawaii, and Chicago State -- all home games against weaker teams. The five challenges include one road game, two neutral site games in South Padre, the ACC/B10 challenge, and the United Center game.

There are also some challenges for us loyal viewers. Four games will be easy for me to watch: games against Jackson State and Hawaii are on the BTN, the Georgia game is on ESPNU, and the Clemson game is on ESPN2. The Eastern Washington and Chicago State games are on bigtennetwork.com, which is annoying but at least freely available nationwide. The remaining four are challenges - @Vandy is on FSN Midwest (I don't live in the Midwest!), Kent State is on Fox College Sports (I didn't even know that was a channel), and the broadcasts for the 11/16 and 11/29 games are not yet announced. Given that 11/16 is only six days away, I am concerned that game may not be broadcast at all. So perhaps we won't be seeing much of the Illini without Alex Legion.

Given that I may have to use my imagination a lot in the next month, let me try to imagine a good rotation for the first 10 games. Bear in mind that I have only seen about 1.3 exhibition games (and not the O&B scrimmage), so this is somewhat poorly-educated speculation. What I will do is try to dole out 200 minutes of playing time in 4 minute increments, ignoring garbage time.

Starters: (136 mpg combined)
Demetri McCamey - 32 mpg
Trent Meacham - 28 mpg
Chester Frazier - 32 mpg
Mike Davis - 24 mpg
Mike Tisdale - 20 mpg

Bench: (64 mpg combined)
Calvin Brock - 24 mpg
Richard Semrau - 16 mpg
Dominique Keller - 12 mpg
Jeff Jordan - 8 mpg
Bill Cole - 4 mpg

Not Playing:
Stan Simpson (redshirt)
Alex Legion (ineligible)
C.J. Jackson (bench)

How would this sort by position? Let's assume that McCamey and Jordan are always at the 1 and Tisdale and Semrau are always at the 5. I'm also thinking that Meacham is always a 2 and Keller and Cole are always at the 4. That leaves three hybrid players, with Frazier as a 2/3, Brock as a 3/4, and Davis as a 4/5.

PG (1): McCamey (32), Jordan (8)
SG (2): Meacham (28), Frazier (12)
SF (3): Frazier (20), Brock (20)
PF (4): Davis (20), Keller (12), Brock (4), Cole (4)
C (5): Tisdale (20), Semrau (16), Davis (4)

My hope is that Brock starting at PF was an exhibition gimmick and we don't see him there more than 4 mpg. It made sense for the exhibitions, with an open competition between the big men and more minutes available for Jeff Jordan. In real games though we don't have much guard depth so Brock will need to spend most of his time at the 3. Things could get really crazy if someone gets hurt or in very early foul trouble. I'm trying not to think about that.

I think it is safe to say that Alex Legion will have plenty of playing time available for him immediately once he becomes eligible. There are also plenty of opportunities for next year's freshmen, but that sounds like a topic for Wednesday...

Sidebar: A few housekeeping notes

2008-11-10T17:39:00.005-05:00

I have been inspired by a user comment to get this blog up and running again. A few things have changed since my last post in April, so let me give some background for the new perspective that you will see in this blog.

*I am now a homeowner. Given that I am still single (but not available...sorry ladies =P), that means that I can put top priority on the viewing of Illini sports events in the comfort of my own home (including on the Big Ten Network).

*On August 1st, Brumby decided to kill the Illiniboard. That IB is now pretty much just a bunch of Weber haters and political malcontents, so my TouchdownRejus posts are going to diminish and my year-long hiatus from the Scout board is over. Kudos to frankfrangie and JackLyman for finally putting together a high-quality operation over there. I also have a membership with Rivals and for my money Brad Sturdy is still the best source of insider basketball info.

*Illinois football has ripped out my heart and stomped on it five times this season. That team is dead to me until further notice, with the notable exception of my man Rejus Benn, who is still a godsend. I also must advocate the immediate resignation of Ron Guenther, as there is no path forward on the basketball renovation/new arena and the football scheduling is killing us.

*I will be pulling for my man Dee Brown on my local Washington Wizards team. They are perhaps the worst team in the NBA right now but I will watch for his sake.

*Jamar Smith, Brian Carlwell, and Rodney Alexander are all no longer members of the Illini basketball team. I wish them well in life but I won't be looking back or pondering any what-ifs with those players this basketball season. I will say that Brian Randle was one of my favorite players and I will miss him.

*Everyone knows that this Illinois basketball team isn't exactly loaded with talent and we are eagerly anticipating the four new players in our solid 2009 recruiting class. Our three recruits in 2010 may be even better and we are back on the upswing. The goal this year is to lay the foundation for the future and to erase the painful memories of 19 losses, awful shooting, poor team chemistry, and embarrassing off-court incidents from the last year. One notable milestone during the season will be the on-court debut of Alex Legion (expected) on December 20th.

*I am going to take that future-oriented approach and thus my theme for basketball this year will be: Illini Basketball: The Foundation. I'm going to try to avoid projecting future wins and losses (unlike what I've done in past seasons) and not stress out over the inevitable ups and downs. I'm also going to avoid the long-standing debate over Weber's job performance. Analysis will focus on younger players, the overall team dynamic, and long-term trends. I will try to be optimistic about our players' potential but I won't drink Kool Aid when it comes to ugly realities on the court.

*Numbers don't lie. I'm much more mathematician than basketball guru. I won't calculate efficiency scores but I will study the box scores and cumulative statistics. I'm also a seasoned observer of sports and try to give unbiased observations without an agenda. I will admit that I am pulling for Rich Semrau and don't fully understand Bill Cole's role on this team. Otherwise I am pretty fair-minded and won't take the intellectually lazy approach and blame everything on Chester Frazier (who is almost never the worst player on the court).

*Illinois basketball season starts on November 14th and I can't wait!

Illinois-Lewis Exhibition in-game observations:

2008-11-10T17:35:00.001-05:00

Live streaming video is much better this week than trying to watch archived video after the game.

*Small lineup not getting nearly enough penetration early. Brock is a nice offensive rebounder though.

*The Semrau-Davis combo is a huge lift. More active defensive presence and they really add a lot of mojo to the motion offense.

*Players seem more decisive this year. I think with there is a greater sense of confidence and purpose. I also like how they seem to react better to Weber's in-game coaching. I really like how when we have a good shot, we take it.

*I'm not sure about the double-team on the perimeter. It's not as bad as last year but it quickly becomes a liability if things break down and the other team gets an unguarded shot.

*I think our rebounding is ok. We get the ones we should get.

*Keller does some odd things. He's not going to be a starter.

*Cold shooting in the first half. Missed 3's and FT's not encouraging.

*We look infinitely better on the fast break this year than last year. It's not 2005 vintage but it actually gets us points instead of turnovers. Hugely encouraging sign.

*One really awful sequence where we don't secure some rebounds and they get a 3.

*Davis should be our starting PF.

*Sudden burst of energy in the second half extends the lead to double digits. I feel like we are doing the right things and if we just execute a little better we will be a solid team.

*Simpson is a good-looking player but they are exploiting him on defense.

*Meacham has to hit the open 3. I will be happy when we can plug in Legion in place of a cold Meacham.

*Disturbing Lewis run as our defense really breaks down.

*Ugly stretch and Davis misses the front end of the one-and-one. I sense that Illinois fans are not going to be happy after this game. Defense has been really weak and Lewis has gotten lots of open shots.

*Frazier and Meacham are absolutely killing us on offense. I want to see how this team responds in a tight game compared to last year.

*McCamey is the right guy to be taking big shots at the end of the game.

*Lewis is not a bad team, so I'm not going to freak out about a 62-56 win. I'm sure others will not be as content.

Evaluating Illini basketball: 2008-2009

2008-04-22T16:56:00.002-05:00

[Reposted from illiniboard]

At this point if we make the NCAA Tournament then the season is clearly a success and Weber will have done a good job. If we're under .500 (barring some outlandish scenario, like a crazed IOS leaping out of the stands with a machete and hacking our players' limbs off) then the season is a failure and Weber should go. For a 33 game regular season, clear success would likely be 22-11 or better and clear failure would be 16-17 or worse.
I'd put the over/under for next season at 20 wins, so it is likely that we'll end up somewhere in between success and failure. I then think that it won't come down to purely the W-L record, but the feel of how the team is responding to the coaches and if we are on track for success with young guys getting experience and more talented recruits arriving in 2009.
I think Weber did a better coaching job in the 23-12 season than in the 26-7 season before that (which had bad losses to PSU and Washington), but he didn't have as much talent in '06-'07 as the prior year. With recruiting on track, the talent level should be solid starting in November 2009 (and should maintain itself for at least 4 seasons).
What is in question is if Weber is the guy to get enough out of that talent. For most of his first 4 seasons, it looked clear that he was coaching well but recruiting horribly. Last season we had a strange reversal where he recruited well but coached horribly. (I'm not sure anyone saw that coming 12 months ago today.) Some will argue that it proves that he can't recruit and he can't coach, and others will argue the exact opposite. Next season should clear things up a bit.

'07-'08 Illini stats trivia

2008-01-23T13:25:00.000-05:00

10 questions. It's more fun if you don't look up the answers.

1. Who leads the Illini in 3PT%?
2. How many different Illini players have started a game this year?
3. Which Illini player has the most field goal attempts?
4. Chester Frazier leads the team in minutes played. Who is 2nd?
5. Which two Illini players have not scored a point so far this season?
6. How many times have the Illini scored exactly 58 points in a game?
7. Our season-high 79 points came against what team?
8. Do we score more in the first or second half? How about our opponents?
9. Which Illini guard has the best A/TO ratio in Big Ten play?
10. Which Illini player gets the most rebounds per minute?

Answers:

1. Calvin Brock is the leader at 50%, with Meacham in 2nd at 39.4%
2. 8 - (Pruitt, Randle, Brock, Meacham, Frazier, Alexander, McCamey, Tisdale)
3. Pruitt has 178 FGA to Randle's 177.
4. Trent Meacham is 2nd in minutes with 539. Pruitt has 512 and Randle has 511.
5. Semrau and Carlwell. I'm not counting Jamar Smith or Alex Legion.
6. 6 times, against Western Carolina, Miami (OH), Tenn. St., Indiana, and twice against Ohio State.
7. Hawaii. We got 78 against Weber State and 77 against AZ St. and Loyola (MD)
8. We score more in the 2nd half (666 to 628) but so do our opponents (663 to 559).
9. Chester Frazier (2.3) over McCamey (1.7). Tisdale has a 3.0 A/TO ratio though.
10. Pruitt gets .293 rebounds/minute, and nobody else on the team is close.

Launching the NIT Quest

2008-01-18T11:51:00.000-05:00

It has been a tough year for Illini basketball fans, and we find ourselves sitting at 9-9 (1-4) heading into this weekend's road game against Purdue. A reasonable goal for this team will be to make the NIT. I have concluded that it will take 18 wins (including the Big Ten Tournament) to earn an NIT bid. We'll keep it that simple for now. 9 wins down, 9 wins to go. Here's a look at our remaining 13 regular season games, with a nod to Ken Pomeroy's ratings.

3 Expected Losses (<30% chance of victory)
@Ohio St
@Michigan St
vs. Wisconsin

4 Expected Wins (>70% chance of victory)
vs. Northwestern
vs. Purdue
@Michigan
@Iowa

6 Swing Games (30-70% chance of victory)
@Purdue
vs. Indiana
@Minnesota
@Penn State
vs. Michigan State
vs. Minnesota

I expect one win in the Big Ten Tournament, so we need to win all 4 Expected Wins and 4 of the 6 Swing Games. If we can't do that, our only hope is to get extra wins in the Big Ten Tournament or to pull of a shocking victory instead of one of the Expected Losses.
The team has been playing better lately, so let's hope that continues because the way things look right now there isn't an easy road to even make the NIT.

Illini basketball recruiting recap

2008-01-12T01:48:00.000-05:00

It's been way too long since I've posted here, so it might be interesting to look at some older posts of mine and see how they turned out.

First, let's look at "The Seven" 2008-2010 recruits that would get us back in the national championship hunt.

1. DJ Richardson. Indeed, he was the ringleader and the first recruit of the seven. So that went as planned.

2. DeAndre McCamey --> Brandon Paul. Another guard and someone we (the fans) totally didn't have on the radar until the summer before he committed. He's very good and a year earlier but maybe not the pure PG we were expecting.

3. Crandall Head. As expected, Luther's younger brother committed to Illinois. What wasn't expected was him becoming an elite prospect before committing.

4. Scott Suggs --> Alex Legion. Legion probably has a little more talent but a little less size. I expect him to play the SG/SF spot for us and he makes for a nice recovery after all the '08 misses.

5. Michael Dunigan --> Stan Simpson. We missed on Dunigan, an amazing defender, but picked up the next best thing and a guy who has more explosion and offensive potential.

6. Jordan Prosser/Tyler Griffey --> ??? Griffey is still on the radar and other prospects are emerging in '09 or '10 to take the big man spot. We'll see.

7. Wild card --> Joe Bertrand. The tastefully named "point forward" adds to a bit of a logjam on the wing, but he is part of a dynamic trio that could lead an Illini resurgence.

Overall, recruiting remains unpredictable with only 2 of the 6 recruits anticipated in my previous post. Finally we've had enough recruiting success to actually live up to one of my optimistic posts. It's very encouraging and the only joy around Illini basketball right now. Let's get one more big and we'll be set on the recruiting trail for a while. Well, there's always the critical '11 class ;-)

Weber Job Approval

2007-07-12T12:48:00.000-05:00

July '07 results:

55% Yes
34% No
11% Unsure

427 votes (InsideIllini)

Weber Job Approval

2007-06-13T12:36:00.000-05:00

June '07 results:

76% Yes
15% No
9% Unsure

454 votes (InsideIllini)

Updated Recruiting Wishlist

2007-06-04T09:30:00.000-05:00

2008:

Mike Dunigan
Matt Humphery
Scott Suggs

(Iman Shumpert)
(DeAndre Liggins)
(Darius Miller)

2009:

Joseph Bertrand
Tyler Griffey

(D'Mitri Riggs)
(DJ Richardson)
(Marcus Jordan)

Illini Legacies

2007-04-27T14:46:00.000-05:00

Congratulations to Bruce Weber and Illinois for landing Jeff Jordan as a preferred walk-on. The kid can really play and the Jordan name is special in Illinois. Congratulations to Jeff and I hope he has a great college experience. Sometimes when you get a player, you get a nice family connection. DJ Richardson, Marcus Jordan, DeAndre McCamey, and Crandall Head are all '09 or '10 players that are related to Illini players or recruits.
I think we could land them all and have some awesome classes. Here are my preferences for the '08, '09, and '10 classes (assuming Jamar is back and CJ is a football player).

2008:
DeAndre Liggins (PG/SF)
Michael Dunigan (PF/C)

*Other '08 targets are Matt Humphrey, Verdell Jones, Lewis Jackson, Darius Miller, Iman Shumpert, Josh Crittle, and Stan Simpson (not sure about that last one). You could plug in Shumpert for Liggins and I would be fine with that too.

2009:
Marcus Jordan (SG)
DJ Richardson (SG/SF)
Tyler Griffey (PF)

*I also like Joseph Bertrand and Jordan Prosser in 2009, plus a forward from Texas whose name escapes me at the moment.

2010:
Jereme Richmond (PF/anywhere he wants)
DeAndre McCamey (PG)
Crandall Head (SG/SF)

*There are several other studs in this class that I like but it's too early to get specific.

Here is the rotation for the next 4 years, in my scenario:

'07-'08

PG Frazier/McCamey
SG Smith/Watkins/Jordan
SF Alexander/Brock
PF Randle/Semrau
C Pruitt/Carlwell

RS: Cole, Tisdale

'08-'09

PG McCamey/Frazier/Liggins
SG Smith/Watkins/Jordan
SF Alexander/Brock
PF Semrau/Cole
C Carlwell/Tisdale

RS: Dunigan

'09-'10

PG McCamey/Jordan
SG Watkins/Jordan
SF Liggins/Richardson
PF Semrau/Cole
C Carlwell/Tisdale/Dunigan

RS: Griffey

'10-'11

PG McCamey/McCamey/Jordan
SG Watkins/Jordan/Head
SF Liggins/Richardson
PF Richmond/Semrau/Cole
C Tisdale/Dunigan/Griffey

The '10-'11 roster would be the scariest collection of talent in Illini history.

Rodney Alexander Commits!

2007-04-17T12:53:00.000-05:00

Great get by Bruce Weber and the staff. I'm excited!

We have two scholarships available for 2008 and my top two choices (at the moment) are DeAndre Liggins and Michael Dunigan. I also like Iman Shumpert and Scott Suggs, plus a few out-of-state guys that we are in on.

Let me update the projected rotation from a few days ago (taking into account new analysis):

Starters:
JR Frazier (24)
JR Smith (32)
JR Brock (20)
SR Randle (24)
SR Pruitt (32)

Bench:
FR McCamey (16)
FR Watkins (12)
JR Alexander (16)
FR Semrau (12)
SO Carlwell (12)

Meacham (0)
Holdren (0)
Jackson (0)
Wise (0)
Tisdale (RS)
Cole (RS)

Projected 2007-2008 rotation

2007-04-12T17:34:00.000-05:00

Here's what I would do (for now assuming that our '07 class is complete):

Starters:
JR Frazier (24)
JR Smith (32)
JR Brock (24)
SR Randle (28)
SR Pruitt (32)

Bench:
FR McCamey (16)
FR Watkins (16)
SO Carlwell (12)
FR Semrau (16)

Meacham (0)
Holdren (0)
Jackson (0)
Wise (0)
Tisdale (RS)
Cole (RS)

*If we get Alexander, he gets 4 minutes each from Brock, Watkins, and Semrau for a total of 12 minutes.
**If Jamar is unavailable for the season, his minutes go to Watkins (8), McCamey (4), Meacham (4), Semrau (8), and Tisdale (8), with Randle starting at the 3 and Semrau at the 4.
I recommend distributing PT in 4-minute increments, since it corresponds to TV timeouts and keeps things much simpler.

Here's a year-to-year (using our '07 NCAA Tournament roster) comparison at every position if we're healthy, Jamar is back, and we get Alexander.

1: Frazier will be improved over a year ago because of health and experience. McCamey is a huge upgrade at backup PG over McBride/Meacham.
2: A healthy Jamar Smith should match McBride's offense but will be a big step down defensively. Q will pick up the slack as a better backup option on both sides of the court than Meacham or a tired McBride.
3: Brock as a junior will be a slight downgrade on offense, defense, and rebounding from a sluggish Randle. Randle/Watkins/Alexander will be slightly better than last year's backups (mostly Brock).
4: A healthy Randle will be very effective at PF and should be about as good overall as Carter was last season. Semrau/Carlwell/Alexander will be a small upgrade over Arnold/Randle backing up the PF spot.
5: Pruitt as a senior should be significantly better than Pruitt as a junior. Carlwell will be a big upgrade over Arnold as a backup center.

Summary:
1: Big improvement
2: Slight dropoff/even
3: Slight dropoff/even
4: Even/slight improvement
5: Big improvement

Net result should be improvement from ~#44 in the country to #24-32 in the country.

I'm thrilled that Watkins signed a LOI with us and I hope we can get Rodney Alexander within a week to finish up our '07 class.

The Seven

2007-03-27T17:45:00.000-05:00

The following scholarship players are slated to be on our 2010-2011 roster:
Richard Semrau (RS-SR) PF
Demetri McCamey (SR) PG
Quinton Watkins (SR) SG
Bill Cole (RS-JR?) PF
Mike Tisdale (RS-JR?) C
Jereme Richmond (FR) SF

We have 13 rides so that leaves seven players in the next 3* classes.
[*I have no idea what is going on with the last 2007 ride but I'm going to assume for the moment that it is not going to a 4-year player and will be available by 2010.]

Say what you will about Weber's recruiting, but I think he can get 7 guys in 3 years. Here's how I would do it (the order is in terms of priority/gameplan, not necessarily commit dates):

2 in 2008
2 in 2009
3 in 2010

The good news is that the 2010 class is loaded. The great news is that we have some awesome connections in that very class. First, though, I'd lock up this guy for 2009

1) DJ Richardson - 2009 - SG
With the Peoria and Jamar Smith connection, no reason not to pencil him in as the logical successor to Jamar Smith. Interest is mutual and this should happen sooner rather than later.

Then we need our guards of the future to continue the Illinois legacy.

2) DeAndre McCamey - 2010 - PG
3) Crandall Head - 2010 - SG
That was easy. Both guys can play and both have outstanding Illini for older brothers. I got my brother to go to Illinois and so can Luther and Demetri.

If we want Weber to survive until the 2009 and 2010 classes, we're going to need some help on the wing.

4) Scott Suggs - 2008 SG/SF
This guy is our #1 target for the 2008 class and we've been all over him for a long time. There is some Chicago/Illinois connection there and I'm going to rely on Weber to seal the deal this summer. [I'd also be plenty happy with Iman Shumpert here...the kid can play and his name is I-man...just a natural!]

I know what you are thinking. Where's the beef? Well, it's harder to predict big men because they tend to develop later. Still, I think I have some answers there as well.

5) Michael Dunigan - 2008 PF/C
I haven't heard stellar reviews lately, but the potential is there and I think this guy is the perfect guy to take Pruitt's ride when he leaves. It's time to get somebody out of Chicago and I think there is strong mutual interest here as well.

6) Jordan Prosser OR Tyler Griffey - 2009 PF
Time to go to our wheelhouse...big white guys =) We need some big boys to develop so they can step up after Semrau, Cole, and Tisdale are done. I'll admit I don't know the difference between these two guys, so I'll take either one on a first-come, first-served basis. I have faith in our staff when it comes to landing big white guys =P

7) DeShaun Thomas or SOMEONE AMAZING - 2010 ??
There really isn't anybody on our radar for '08 or '09 who is going to be a Final Four or National Championship difference maker. However, if you get the other 6 guys on my list then you are going to have a really awesome team with a ton of young talent. Someone with 5* talent will be out there and with Jereme Richmond et al. working on him for 3 years, he will see the light. Here is where you put someone who is one-and-done and you win it all.

The only concern I'd have is that there is no clear backup PG for 2009-2010. I think Shumpert could pull it off though if we get him. Also, it may not be necessary to get Prosser/Griffey in '09 if we get Dunigan in '08, or vice versa. Alternatively, if you can get a stud PG in '09 maybe you don't end up banking a ride in '10. Maybe another ride opens up from a transfer or early draft entry.

**I may revise this after I get some feedback.

Re-Seeding the NCAA Tournament

2007-03-27T16:59:00.000-05:00

Once the Final Four is set, it is possible to re-seed the field based on the results to yield the seeds that would have produced no upsets. Here is the re-seeded field:

MIDWEST

1. Florida
2. Oregon
3. UNLV
4. Butler
5. Maryland
6. Wisconsin
7. Winthrop
8. Purdue
9. Arizona
10. Notre Dame
11. Texas A&M CC
12. Davidson
13. Old Dominion
14. Georgia Tech
15. Miami (OH)
16. Jackson State

WEST

1. UCLA
2. Kansas
3. Southern Illinois
4. Pittsburgh
5. VCU
6. Virginia Tech
7. Kentucky
8. Indiana
9. Gonzaga
10. Villanova
11. Illinois
12. Duke
13. Wright State
14. Holy Cross
15. Niagara
16. Weber State

EAST

1. Georgetown
2. North Carolina
3. USC
4. Vanderbilt
5. Washington State
6. Texas
7. Michigan State
8. Boston College
9. Texas Tech
10. Marquette
11. New Mexico State
12. Oral Roberts
13. George Washington
14. Arkansas
15. Eastern Kentucky
16. Belmont

SOUTH

1. Ohio State
2. Memphis
3. Texas A&M
4. Tennessee
5. Virginia
6. Louisville
7. Nevada
8. Xavier
9. BYU
10. Creighton
11. Stanford
12. Albany
13. Long Beach State
14. Pennsylvania
15. North Texas
16. Central Conn.

Excited About Next Year

2007-03-19T16:59:00.000-05:00

That loss to VT was so horrible that I will try to never speak of it again.

I'm excited about next year. We add a lot of players that we didn't have at the end of this season. Carlwell and Semrau are both recovering from potentially life-threatening conditions, so we might get to see our nice '06 recruits next year. I think Jamar Smith could be back, which along with a healthy Chester Frazier would do a lot to improve the contributions of our '05 class. I'm going to be a jerk and write off CJ Jackson and assume he won't be back next year. Our '05 and '06 classes didn't score a point for us last game, yet we still went 23-12 on the year.
Thankfully, recruiting has improved and the '07 class is promising. Lots of new guys like Demetri McCamey, Quinton Watkins, Bill Cole, and Mike Tisdale. Weber is out looking for someone else too and that should only help. '08 recruiting looks ok and that should give people a boost if we land guys like Iman Shumpert (how can a guy with that name go somewhere else?). We'll get DJ Richardson in '09 and a ton of studs in '10 so that should reassure the skeptics.
I think we will see a better transition game, faster pace of play, improved free throw shooting, consistent defense, and a ton more depth (I forgot to mention Jeremiah Wise and Steve Holdren, who are probably on par with Meacham). I'm also betting that we'll have better health and fewer off-court problems.
Our schedule will be tougher but this will be a punchy team with the guts to finish games. Expect signature wins and another NCAA appearance. RPI and SOS will be our friends, as the Big Ten will dominate next season with a ton of stud recruits. There will be some great battles in Champaign and on the road from Hawaii to Penn State.

Who Can Win It All?

2007-03-12T15:31:00.000-05:00

It's time to break down the field. I don't know how to pick a decent bracket. I do know a little bit about determining possible champions. Of the 65 teams, only 13 (20% of the field) have any real chance to win it all.

Florida
Maryland
Oregon
Wisconsin
Kansas
UCLA
North Carolina
Texas
Washington State
Georgetown
Ohio State
Texas A&M
Memphis

There are a few rules to this. You pretty much need to have Final Four experience to win it all. That rules out Oregon, Wisconsin, Kansas, Washington State, Georgetown, Ohio State, and Texas A&M. That leaves us with six teams.

Florida
Maryland
UCLA
North Carolina
Texas
Memphis

Memphis isn't from a decent conference, so it is out. UCLA and Maryland lost in the first rounds of their conference tournaments, so they are out. The only other factors are abundant NBA talent and elite players, which both abound on the three remaining teams. So there you have it.

The 2007 national champion will be Florida, North Carolina, or Texas.*

*The NBA early entry rule might mess things up, so you can consider Ohio State as a dark horse candidate because of Greg Oden.

NCAA Quest - Prediction

2007-03-11T15:46:00.000-05:00

We're IN. The win over Indiana sealed the deal. 11 seed.

3/6 NCAA Quest - Who to Root For/Against

2007-03-06T12:58:00.000-05:00

Let's say Illinois beats Penn State on Thursday and loses to Indiana Friday night. That pretty much leaves us squarely on the bubble, dependent on other results. Let's see what we want to happen (if the "losers" do win, we want them to lose ASAP):

Georgia Tech loses to Wake Forest (Thursday)
Florida State/Clemson loses to UNC (Friday) [FSU/Clemson is too tough to call]
Syracuse loses to UConn (Wednesday)
West VA loses to Providence (Wednesday)
DePaul loses to Villanova (Wednesday)
Michigan loses to Minnesota (Thursday)
Michigan State loses to NW (Thursday)
Purdue loses to Iowa (Friday)
Kansas State loses to Texas Tech/Colorado (Friday)
[Texas Tech losing Thursday to Colorado is secondary but helpful]
Stanford loses to USC (Wednesday)
No deep SEC runs for Alabama, Georgia, Arkansas, Miss., Miss. State
Air Force loses to Wyoming (MWC)
UMass doesn't reach the A10 Final

UNLV or BYU wins the MWC tournament
Memphis wins the C-USA tournament
Xavier wins the A10 Tournament
Butler wins the Horizon Tournament
Nevada wins the WAC Tournament

3/5 NCAA Quest Update

2007-03-05T00:21:00.000-05:00

Disappointing loss @Iowa. I thought we would win and I really don't know what happened there. Horrible TV coverage (even via pay-per-view online) so I was lucky to even be able to follow the game. Fortunately we are done with Big Ten road games this year.
Where do we stand with regards to the NCAA Tournament? We are 21-10 (9-7) and our RPI is 35. I think if the season ended today that we would be just about the last team in. However, we still have the Big Ten Tournament to sort things out. What do we need to do in Chicago? Let's look at the Friday matchups:

Ohio State vs. Michigan/Minnesota
Wisconsin vs. Michigan State/Northwestern
Indiana vs. Illinois/Penn State
Iowa vs. Purdue

If we lose to Penn State then we are out. That would just be unforgivable at this point. If we beat Penn State but lose to Indiana then it depends on other teams. If we beat both Penn State and Indiana then we are in. There is no way they can leave us out if we have 23 wins.

Here are my predictions for the Big Ten Tournament.
1. Michigan over Minnesota
2. Michigan State over Northwestern
3. Illinois over Penn State
4. Ohio State over Michigan
5. Iowa over Purdue
6. Michigan State over Wisconsin
7. Illinois over Indiana
8. Ohio State over Iowa
9. Michigan State over Illinois
10. Michigan State over Ohio State

Big Ten NCAA teams are Ohio State (1), Wisconsin (2), Michigan State (5), Indiana (9), Illinois (11).

The Curse of Penn State

2007-03-02T16:36:00.000-05:00

2.2 seconds left...Illinois trails by 1 after blowing a double-digit second half lead. McBride inbounds to Dee, who is blanketed by two Penn State defenders and after some dribbles fires a pass to Rich McBride, who drills the 3-pointer as the buzzer sounds. The scoreboard shows a final of 68-66 and some of the Orange Krush storm the court in relief.
That's how I remember it. I was there. Illinois had never lost during my life for the 20+ games when I was in attendance, even after OT games at Purdue and vs. Iowa, along with two Big Ten Tournaments and a couple NCAA games in Indy. We had a 33-game home winning streak and were 20-2 in the sequel to the 37-2 campaign. For a moment that all seemed intact and McBride's 20 points would carry us to victory and signal a breakout performance for the next great Illini guard.
Before I could celebrate, I quickly realized that the shot would be reviewed since it came at the buzzer. Perhaps Bruce Weber could have lobbied for more time before the inbounds play (it works for Duke!) but the refs made the right call and waved off the basket. King Rich was stripped of his crown and our streak was snapped. The fabric of the space-time continuum had been torn and the bizarre implications are still being felt in Champaign and beyond.
66-65, Penn State. Matt Sylvester's miracle shot gave Ohio State a 65-64 win over the unbeaten Illini and made a king out of Thad Matta, who has since enjoyed an unparalleled recruiting bonanza and has dominated the Big Ten. However, this game's implications were even greater. Illinois finished at 11-5 in the Big Ten. That win would have given Illinois a 12-4 finish, a share of the Big Ten Championship, and the 2 seed in the Big Ten Tournament. That 2 seed then went on to win the BTT while 3 seed Illinois had to play MSU twice in a row and lost the rubber match. Illinois could have had the 2-seed which the devilish Bruce Pearl received undeservedly in the NCAA Tournament but instead was stuck with a lousy 4-seed. Instead of a second-round loss to Washington, Illinois would have easily handled Wichita State (they beat them once already that season and improved since then) and could have snuffed George Mason's legendary Cinderella run to the Final Four.
Imagine the difference such a run would have made for Bruce Weber. Instead of a dull 26-7 record, he could have acheieved a sterling 32-5 mark, Big Ten Championship, Big Ten Tournament Championship, and Elite Eight appearance. The recruiting implications would have been substantial, likely impressing Evan Turner enough to hold off Thad Matta's high-pressure sales job. Eric Gordon could not have spurned a Turner/McCamey/Cole/Tisdale supporting cast for the ethically challenged crew at Indiana. Perhaps Scottie Reynolds sees a dynasty at Illinois as more impressive than a second-rate option at Villanova and signs on with Weber after his release from Oklahoma. Reynolds scores 20+ in home games against Maryland, Ohio State, and Wisconsin along with Illini hero Rich McBride, who is too concerned about his dark horse NBA hopes to ever risk getting a DUI. Jamar Smith isn't on the floor to get hurt against Austin Peay, and by Big Ten season he evolves into the third guard of a new three-headed monster that remains undefeated at home and contends for a fourth consecutive Big Ten Championship. After a sweep of Indiana and Reynolds' impressive freshman campaign, Kelvin Sampson at Indiana is widely considered to be the best thing to happen to Illinois since Bill Self left for Kansas. There is no Jamar Smith scandal because he's not out partying with the Big Ten Championship on the line.
Oh, what could have been...

The good news is that with last Saturday's win over Penn State, the curse is now reversed. Penn State already beat Iowa at home, crushing their NCAA hopes and making them easy prey in our quest to lock up an NCAA bid. Penn State will also knock off hated Indiana at home on Saturday, knocking them into the 4 seed where they will lose in Chicago to 5 seed Purdue and shockingly fail to reach the NCAA Tournament. Illinois will go on a remarkable run, defeating Iowa, Michigan State, and Purdue to win the Big Ten Tournament and be poised to capture a favorable seed in the NCAA Tournament with a 25-9 record on Selection Sunday. (Ohio State, Wisconsin, Illinois, Purdue, and Michigan State would be the 5 teams with NCAA bids out of the Big Ten.)
Oh, the possibilities...

Illini Basketball Next Year - What We Know

2007-02-27T17:45:00.000-05:00

Since it's the middle of the week and I'm bored, now seems like a good time to think about how the Illini will do next year. The only problem with that is that we don't even know how they are going to do this year (no idea if they will win or lose their next game or where they will be seeded from 3-7 in the BTT). When you add in the possibility that our 2007 recruiting class is incomplete and the Jamar situation, there is no hope of knowing how next season will go. However, there are some things that we do know and that can help us get started.

Rich McBride, Warren Carter, and Marcus Arnold are all graduating. We lose 2 starters and a significant role player in our rotation. Together they average 25.6 ppg (of our 65.8) and 70.5 mpg (of 200). McBride is a 2-year starter and Carter is a 1-year starter. In terms of efficiency, McBride has a .351 FG%, .353 3PT%, .724 FT%, 2.1 rebounds/game and 54/37 A/TO. Carter has a .488 FG%, .368 FT%, .717 FT%, 6.3 rebounds/game, 58/71 A/TO. Carter and McBride combined for 531 of 1596 FG attempts. So that's what we're losing.

What about the other 3 starters and their efficiency?

Frazier .365 FG%, .325 3PT%, .606 FT%, 4.7 rebounds/game and 128/75 A/TO
Randle .544 FG%, .385 3PT%, .595 FT%, 4.4 rebounds/game and 23/33 A/TO
Pruitt .545 FG%, no 3PT%, .516 FT%, 7.4 rebounds/game and 7/57 A/TO

It's reasonable to expect returning starters to get more shots. We will likely see an Illini team that is excellent at rebounding and efficient shooting, but BRUTAL at the FT line and not a very good passing team.

Defensively, we should be excellent next season. All three returning starters are great defenders and Carter is the only weak link on defense this year (although he is improving).

Offensively we have some serious issues. We might not have any great pure shooters or pure scorers. This is a huge problem. If Jamar is not back, we will need big contributions from Q and Semrau. Both of them seem to have plenty of potential but you never know with freshmen (or even redshirt freshmen).

It's hard to say much more once you realize that it all comes down to finding new ways to put the ball in the hoop. We need to have 3 legitimate threats behind the line and one post scorer for Weber's offense to succeed.

Here are the questions for next year

-Will Jamar be back, and if so can he return to his scorer's form?
-Who starts at PF? Can he score?
-How much can our freshmen guards contribute?
-Will either Brock or a new recruit emerge as a wing scorer coming off the bench?
-Will injuries or off-court incidents disrupt the season again?
-Will this team be ready to handle a difficult non-conference schedule?
-Who will provide the necessary leadership to overcome adversity and win on the road in the Big Ten?

In summary, I don't know if Illini games next year will be good or bad, but I do know that they will once again be ugly.

2/26 NCAA Quest Update

2007-02-25T02:28:00.000-05:00

Huge win @PSU today. It was expected, but it's nice to see the team playing its best ball heading into March. 21 wins is huge and 9-6 in the Big Ten feels awfully good. Our RPI has climbed to 30 which is off the bubble, so I'd say we're in for sure if the season ended today. Our Pomeroy rating is up to #22 so I'd say we should see some votes in Monday's polls (we even deserved to be ranked at this point). Here is an updated look at the pack in the Big Ten and what record they are on pace for.

3. Illinois 9-6 (10-6)
4. MSU 8-6 (9-7)
4. Indiana 8-6 (10-6)
4. Iowa 8-6 (9-7)
7. Purdue 7-7 (9-7)
7. Michigan 7-7 (8-8)

For the BTT, let's assume Ohio State gets the 1 seed and Wisconsin gets the 2 seed. If these predictions hold up, Indiana gets the 3 seed, Illinois gets the 4 seed, Iowa gets the 5 seed, Purdue gets the 6 seed, MSU gets the 7 seed, Michigan gets the 8 seed, then Minnesota, NW, and PSU. The BTT matchups are then:

Ohio State vs. Michigan/Minnesota
Wisconsin vs. MSU/NW
Indiana vs. Purdue/PSU
Illinois vs. Iowa

That might give us a Big Ten Tournament with no upsets. There's a slight chance we're already in the NCAAs, but I believe we need to win one of our next two games to get in. In my opinion, only the refs can beat us at Iowa. Right now we're on pace for a 23-10 record heading into the NCAA Tournament. That might get us a 7 seed.

Jamar on the Bench?

2007-02-23T01:07:00.000-05:00

Since the accident a week ago Monday and the ensuing events and reports, I've been all over the place with reactions to the fate of Jamar Smith. At times I've lashed out at Weber for the perception that he's coddling a team full of criminals. Other times I wonder where the players would be without someone who loves them like a father and refuses to give up on them. I almost wrote a blog entitled "Jamar Must Go" a couple days ago upon hearing about his apparent refusal of help for Brian. I've questioned whether Jamar was ever a "good kid" and doubted my support of college athletics and the surrounding culture it creates. I've empathized with Jamar, remembering times in my life where I've been filled with regret from mistakes I've made irresponsibly yet unintentionally that I wished I could simply undo. Plus there is the factor that I'm an Illini fan and I want us to win games. I have never wavered in my absolute disgust at drunk driving and its prevalence in our country.

Still, I found myself watching the Illinois/Michigan game in the wake of these seesawing opinions and emotions. In the wake of the latest developments, I posted the following in response to watching the game and reading the subsequent Tupper blog.

It was disconcerting to see Smith on the bench having a good time after the recent events for which he was directly responsible. However, it does hint that there may be more to the story than we're hearing from the prosecution in this case.

"The team was adamant that Jamar should be with the team and on the bench. The most outspoken of all was Carlwell and his opinion held extra weight, since the public perception is that Jamar Smith left him for dead in the car that snowy night. I can tell you everyone associated with the program strongly disputes that notion and Smith’s attorney, Mark Lipton, will no doubt be arguing that in court."

It seems to me that those associated with the team are the ones who would know the most about the events of that fateful night. For all this "left for dead" talk, we've never heard Jamar or Brian's side of the story. Surely any responsible decision-maker would take that into account. I think the sight of Brian and Jamar arm-in-arm is a powerful statement from those two individuals.
We condemn Jamar (and I'm not saying he's innocent or should go unpunished) for presumably looking out for his own reputation and self-interest when his teammate was clearly suffering and in urgent need of help. Jamar is suffering now and needs help. If we abandon him to protect our own reputation and self-interest, are we really any better?
Justice will be served and I doubt this is some grand cover-up. Perhaps it is really that Coach Weber understands that two wrongs don't make a right. It's that understanding that allowed Luther Head and Richard McBride to redeem themselves and we are all better for it.

2/22 NCAA Quest Update

2007-02-22T11:26:00.000-05:00

Blogger is unblocked at work, so I'm back early! We just got a critical win against Michigan and suddenly the landscape looks a lot brighter for us. 20 wins is a big milestone and 8-6 in the Big Ten feels awfully good. Our RPI has soared to 32 which is off the bubble, so I'd say we're in for sure if the season ended today. Our Pomeroy rating is up to #25 so I'd say we should see some votes in the polls if we stay on track. Here is an updated look at the pack in the Big Ten and what record they are on pace for.

3. Indiana 8-5 (10-6)
4. Illinois 8-6 (9-7)
5. Iowa 8-6 (9-7)
6. MSU 7-6 (9-7)
7. Purdue 6-7 (9-7)
8. Michigan 6-7 (7-9)

Wow! What a logjam at 9-7. That's right on the bubble. As far as NCAAs go, 9-7 would put MSU in, Iowa out, and Purdue and Illinois waiting to see how they do in the BTT. How would the seeding work if Iowa loses @PSU and beats Illinois?

IL = 2-3 vs 9-7 teams, 0-1 vs OSU, 0-1 vs Wisc
IA = 3-2 vs 9-7 teams, 0-1 vs OSU, 0-2 vs Wisc
PU = 2-1 vs 9-7 teams, 0-2 vs OSU, 0-1 vs Wisc
MS = 2-3 vs 9-7 teams, 0-2 vs OSU, 1-1 vs Wisc?

so Purdue gets the 4 seed with a 2-1 group record, Iowa is the 5 seed with the 3-2 record, IL is the 6 seed with the 0-1 record against OSU, and MSU is the 7 seed.

The tiebreakers can be found at this site.

All that aside, the most important thing is to get some revenge against Penn State this weekend. I'm planning another entry tomorrow to discuss our last game against Penn State and the ensuing consequences.

2/19 NCAA Quest Update

2007-02-20T01:04:00.000-05:00

Sorry for the late post. Turns out Blogger is blocked at work now so I have to do this on my own time now. We had to get that win against Northwestern. I'm changing the format of this to focus on the Big Ten standings and our status on the bubble since the schedule breakdown is trivial at this point. It's nice to be up to 19 wins and back over .500 in the Big Ten. Our RPI is 44 according to Pomeroy but the NCAA has reclassified some of our games so officially we're at 40. Any better than that and we're off the bubble IMO. Here is an updated look at the pack in the Big Ten and what record they are on pace for.

3. Indiana 7-5 (10-6)
4. Illinois 7-6 (9-7)
5. Iowa 7-6 (8-8)
6. MSU 6-6 (8-8)
7. Purdue 6-6 (9-7)
8. Michigan 6-6 (8-8)

I'm not sure if the matchups will allow that exact result but it's a nice look at the pace. We're on pace for the #5 seed in the Big Ten tournament and a 4/5 matchup against Purdue (essentially a play-in game for the NCAA Tournament). BTW, MSU could slip into the tournament with an 8-8 Big Ten record and an easy victory over the 11 seed and a strong performance in the quarterfinal game against Indiana.

After all this talk, it's likely as simple as winning 3 of our next 4 and we're in. Let's start by exacting some revenge vs. Michigan on our home floor on Senior Night.

Fame and Tragedy

2007-02-14T02:50:00.000-05:00

Sometimes I get so caught up in the drama and passion of being a college basketball fan and I forget that we're often talking about teenagers. By now, anyone reading this blog will surely know of the accident last night involving Jamar Smith and Brian Carlwell. If you don't know the details, I refer you to this brilliant piece of journalism by the Chicago Tribune. I think the opening quote captures the feelings of most Illini fans this morning. Seeing my quote in a serious publication gave me a sudden glimpse of what it must feel like to have your life available for public scrutiny. I could have easily let my emotions get the better of me and written something hurtful and stupid and then ended up regretting it later. I generally act cautiously because it is easy to make mistakes in life and often impossible to undo them.

Right now Jamar and Brian appear to be guilty only of some questionable driving and a lot of bad luck. I live in Maryland (which is currently being coated in ice) and might have been a victim of a similar tragedy today on my way home from work. Often the only silver lining to a tragedy involving a famous athlete is that it forces the rest of us to re-evaluate our lives. Do I take the proper caution when driving in inclement weather? Do I know what to do if I am in an accident and I need emergency help? Am I avoiding situations where I will be in the wrong place at the wrong time? If I'm going to drink, will I be sure not to get behind the wheel?

The good news is that everything that I've heard suggests that Brian is recovering quickly and will be ok. I can't imagine that he'll play again this season, but his future as an Illini basketball player and dreams of playing in the NBA may still be intact. I will continue to pray for him and that there is no more bad news coming out of this story.

2/11 NCAA Quest Update

2007-02-12T00:03:00.000-05:00

Tough loss to Indiana, as a victory there would have likely sewn up an NCAA berth, for all practical purposes. Still, it was encouraging to see the effort and improved play from the Illini. Our RPI actually improved to 41, so we're nearly off the bubble (RPI 40-50). 6-4 in the last 10 and 6-6 road/neutral. I feel comfortable asserting that Illinois will beat any team with a >125 RPI on the road and a >50 RPI at AH. I'm also sad to say that I expect Illinois to lose to any team with a <20 RPI at AH and a <50 RPI (up from <70 after a strong performance at Indiana) on the road. That gives us 3 automatic wins (NW (147), Michigan (58), @PSU (206)) in the remaining schedule and puts us at 9-6 in the Big Ten. That leaves 1 "swing" game:

3/3 @Iowa (80)

Another factor that is important is where we finish in the Big Ten. I think a top 5 finish is essential for comparisons to other teams and for our BTT seeding. Right now we have the following pack in the Big Ten (including predicted finish).

3. Indiana 7-3 (12-4)
4. Iowa 6-5 (9-7)
5. Illinois 6-6 (9-7)
6. Michigan 5-5 (7-9)
7. Purdue 5-6 (9-7)
8. Michigan State 4-6 (7-9)

If everything finishes as predicted we will be in a tie for the 4-6 spots with Iowa and Purdue. I still think we can beat Iowa and finish at 10-6, which would put us in the NCAAs.

2/8 NCAA Quest Update

2007-02-08T10:01:00.000-05:00

Nice road win over Northwestern to move to 6-5 in the Big Ten. The win total is up to 18 and that's starting to look good. I'd say we're at the point now where we have a >50% chance of making the NCAAs, but there are a lot of bubble teams fighting for a few spots so we have to keep this going. Our RPI is steady at 44, so I guess we're still right in the middle of the bubble (RPI 40-50). 6-4 in the last 10 and 6-5 road/neutral. I feel comfortable asserting that Illinois will beat any team with a >125 RPI on the road and a >50 RPI at AH. I'm also sad to say that I expect Illinois to lose to any team with a <20 RPI at AH and a <70 RPI (up from <75 after NW) on the road. That gives us 3 automatic wins (NW (153), Michigan (54), @PSU (195)) and 1 automatic loss (@Indiana (17)) in the remaining schedule and puts us at 9-6 in the Big Ten. That leaves 1 "swing" game:

3/3 @Iowa (83)

Another factor that is important is where we finish in the Big Ten. I think a top 5 finish is essential for comparisons to other teams and for our BTT seeding. Right now we have the following pack in the Big Ten (including predicted finish).

3. Indiana 6-3 (11-5)
4. Iowa 6-4 (9-7)
5. Illinois 6-5 (9-7)
6. Purdue 5-5 (9-7)
7. Michigan 4-5 (7-9)
8. Michigan State 4-6 (7-9)

If everything finishes as predicted we will be in a tie for the 4-6 spots with Iowa and Purdue. I'm not sure how the tiebreakers work but I will find out soon. The more important thing is that we are playing with house money against Indiana and if we somehow steal a win there we would be on track for 10-6 and 3rd place, knocking them down to 4th place. We're sure to get hosed by the refs so it will be ugly. However, this Illini team is improving and Indiana isn't. You never know.

2/4 NCAA Quest Update

2007-02-05T00:11:00.000-05:00

Ugly win over Minnesota Saturday but it counts the same in the standings. It's good to have won over 2/3 of our games and be back to .500 in the Big Ten. I'd say we're at the point now where we have a >50% chance of making the NCAAs. Our RPI actually dropped to 44, so I guess we're still right in the middle of the bubble (RPI 40-50). I feel comfortable asserting that Illinois will beat any team with a >125 RPI on the road and a >50 RPI at AH. I'm also sad to say that I expect Illinois to lose to any team with a <20 RPI at AH and a <75 RPI on the road. That gives us 4 automatic wins (@NW (145), NW (145), Michigan (56), @PSU (200)) and 1 automatic loss (@Indiana (18)) in the remaining schedule and puts us at 9-6 in the Big Ten. That leaves 1 "swing" game:

3/3 @Iowa (85)

What we've seen is that Michigan is getting a lot worse while Iowa seems to be improving rapidly. The game at Iowa is looking a lot tougher than I originally expected. I feel better about our chances at getting in with a 9-7 record and a win in the Big Ten Tournament. In future editions of NCAA Quest I will start to take a closer look at how the Big Ten is shaking out and what we'll be up against in the Big Ten Tournament.
I'd also like to announce that I purchased a plane ticket to Chicago for 3/9-3/12 so I am planning on attending the BTT. I don't have tickets left so if there are Illini fans out there with extras, please let me know.

1/31 NCAA Quest Update

2007-01-31T02:50:00.000-05:00

Huge win over MSU yesterday, as that was one of the swing games. Now that we have a few quality wins people might believe that we're an NCAA Tournament team. Our RPI improved to 42, closer to being off the bubble (RPI 40-50). I feel comfortable asserting that Illinois will beat any team with a >125 RPI on the road and a >50 RPI at AH. I'm also sad to say that I expect Illinois to lose to any team with a <20 RPI at AH and a <75 RPI on the road. That gives us 4 automatic wins (Minnesota (177), @NW (128), NW (128), @PSU (184)) and 1 automatic loss (@Indiana (19)) in the remaining schedule and puts us at 8-6 in the Big Ten. That leaves 2 "swing" games:

2/21 Michigan (45)
3/3 @Iowa (115)

I think we are looking at 9-7 or 10-6 in the Big Ten and we'll be on the good side of the bubble with a chance to ice things in the Big Ten Tournament. Now is the time to get on a roll with Minnesota coming to town. We have to be consistent and win the games we're supposed to win.

1/28 NCAA Quest Update

2007-01-28T14:36:00.000-05:00

We lost to Purdue. The way we lost was upsetting but it doesn't hurt us much in the big picture as long as we can deliver in the "win" and "swing" games. Our RPI again is 46, leaving us on the bubble (RPI 40-50). I feel comfortable asserting that Illinois will beat any team with a >125 RPI on the road and a >50 RPI at AH. I'm also sad to say that I expect Illinois to lose to any team with a <20 RPI at AH and a <75 RPI (downgraded after the ugly Purdue road loss) on the road. That gives us 4 automatic wins (Minnesota (174), @NW (133), NW (133), @PSU (183)) and 1 automatic loss (@Indiana (21)) in the remaining schedule and puts us at 7-6 in the Big Ten. That leaves 3 "swing" games:

1/30 MSU (RPI 28)
2/21 Michigan (44)
3/3 @Iowa (112)

I think we are looking at 9-7 or 10-6 in the Big Ten and we'll be on the good side of the bubble with a chance to ice things in the Big Ten Tournament. We need to get healthy and generate some scoring if we want to roll off a string of wins. This is a scary time as the schedule is easier but we can't afford any slip-ups.

1/24 NCAA Quest Update

2007-01-24T12:35:00.000-05:00

We got a big (and unexpected, given our past performances) win against Indiana last night that gives our NCAA Quest a big boost. Our RPI has risen to 46, leaving us on the bubble (RPI 40-50). I feel comfortable asserting that Illinois will beat any team with a >125 RPI on the road and a >50 RPI at AH. I'm also sad to say that I expect Illinois to lose to any team with a <20 RPI at AH (revised from <25 after last night's performance) and a <50 RPI on the road. That gives us 3 automatic wins (Minnesota (184), NW (125), @PSU (159)) and 2 automatic losses (@Purdue (48), @Indiana (22)) in the remaining schedule and puts us at 6-6 in the Big Ten. That leaves 4 "swing" games:

1/30 MSU (RPI 27)
2/7 @NW (125)
2/21 Michigan (39)
3/3 @Iowa (114)

I think we are looking at 9-7 or 10-6 in the Big Ten and we'll be on the good side of the bubble with a chance to ice things in the Big Ten Tournament. If this team keeps improving and can somehow steal an unlikely win @Purdue then we will really be in business.

Apology to Bruce Weber

2007-01-23T12:44:00.000-05:00

I think a lot of people have been unfairly venting their frustration with recent events at Bruce Weber. We all want to win every game and land all the best recruits, none more than Weber himself.

Undoubtedly, our program has faced a lot of adversity, especially in the last 4 months. Every starter has been injured and/or missed time this season (just consider the number of different starting lineups we've needed). We've been victimized by an unprecedented welching of a verbal commitment from a top recruit to a conference rival. Top talent from Illinois goes elsewhere amid public accusations of cheating (unproven, yes) that meshes with every bit of smoke from the sport's corrupt underbelly.

Exacerbating the situation are the actions of our former coach who goes out of his way to contact our recruits and to negatively recruit against us. Furthermore, it is clear that from the very beginning there have been cronies of the former coach who do nothing but promote an anti-Weber agenda. [It's not "realism" or "venting." These people have obvious harmful agendas.]

How does Weber respond to adversity? He works even harder, makes adjustments, yet stays true to his core values. Weber is universally acknowledged as one of the hardest-working recruiters in all of the country (this is much different from the Ron Turner scenario). We've seen a new recruiting approach that has succeeded in raising the level of our recruiting success (see the last 3 verbal commitments). We've seen zone defense from someone who was 100% man-to-man for decades. We've seen honesty and integrity in recruiting without even a hint of trouble from the NCAA.

Weber is universally lauded as a great coach and teacher by college basketball experts. When the time came to cash in on the greatest success in the program's history, he didn't shop himself to "elite" programs to try and cash out. He reinvested some of the money that could have lined his pockets back into the program to improve our facilities and assistant coach salaries. He has remained loyal and rebuilt the notion of the Illini family.

How have we treated this man? He's being condemned based on fantasies. Fantasies. People have dreams of "eliteness," national championships, and recruiting successes that have no basis in historical reality. We nearly did the unthinkable in 2004-2005 under Weber and now he has become a victim of his own success. Bitterness from the departure of our previous coach and fear from the collapse of our football program (along with some bizarre local sports psychology) have warped our perceptions of Bruce Weber.

We are staring at the ugly prospect of a home loss to our most hated rival and a strong chance of missing the NCAA Tournament. Nobody is "merry" about this. We're pissed off. We're also staring at the even uglier prospect of running a coach out of town (by April 2008) who has done nothing to deserve such a fate. Our insane fanbase has never been fair to Bruce Weber and it reflects very poorly on us. I've met Bruce Weber and he is a good man and a great coach who does not deserve the heat he is getting from his "fans." I'm an irrationally obsessed Illini fan I consider myself part of the problem. That's why I apologize to Bruce Weber.

Good luck to Bruce and the Illini tonight against the Hoosiers.

1/22 NCAA Quest Update

2007-01-22T11:58:00.000-05:00

We lost to Wisconsin on Saturday (as expected, although we put up a fight). Our RPI has dropped to 48, leaving us on the bubble (RPI 40-50). I feel comfortable asserting that Illinois will beat any team with a >125 RPI on the road (changed from >150 after further review) and a >50 RPI at AH. I'm also sad to say that I expect Illinois to lose to any team with a <25 RPI at AH and a <50 RPI on the road. That gives us 4 automatic wins (Minnesota (187), @Northwestern (126), Northwestern (126), @PSU (158)) and 3 automatic losses (Indiana (16), @Purdue (46), @Indiana (16)) in the remaining schedule and puts us at 6-7 in the Big Ten. That leaves 3 "swing" games:

1/30 MSU (RPI 27)
2/21 Michigan (38)
3/3 @Iowa (114)

Frankly, I am sick of all the losing and we need to beat Indiana on Tuesday regardless of their RPI. This team has been too predictable and it's time to break the mold. Otherwise we are 9-7 at best with the NIT looming.

Blisterfoot - Oh! Injury

2007-01-20T17:05:00.000-05:00

There's a fracture in a left hand,
Time for practice we're undermanned,
From the blistered foot to the groin strain.
Have some surgery and a lot of pain.

In the Freak's groin, there's some stiff scar,
Richard Semrau, an infected core,
Lose three games what's the headline,
Keep recruiting 'til the letter's signed.

Oh! Injury,
Why can't we seem to keep it together?
Sampson's the enemy,
Why can't we seem to keep it together?

In the backcourt of the Illini,
There's a thin man with ankles fried,
Air the threeball till his head's right,
Keep him slumping 'til the next night.

Oh! Injury,
Why can't we seem to keep it together?
Sampson's the enemy,
Why can't we seem to keep it together?

Why this tragedy?
Why can't we seem to keep it together?
Oh! Injury,
Why can't we seem to keep it together?

In the fallout, the fallout,
We found out - the hype won't get you through.
We're defective, defective...
I meant it - the hype won't get you through.
(Through!)

Oh! Injury,
Why can't we seem to keep it together?
Oh! Injury,
Why can't we seem to keep it together?

Why this tragedy?
Why can't we seem to keep it together?
Oh! Injury,
Why can't we seem to keep it together, now?

Let's put it together.

1/18 NCAA Quest Update

2007-01-18T10:48:00.000-05:00

So, Illinois took care of Minnesota on the road, as expected. According to Ken Pomeroy, Illinois has an RPI of 41. I think we'll get in if (but not only if) our RPI is 40 or better, so we're a bubble team right now. I feel comfortable asserting that Illinois will beat any team with a >125 RPI on the road (changed from >150 after further review) and a >50 RPI at AH. I'm also sad to say that I expect Illinois to lose to any team with a <25 RPI at AH and a <50 RPI on the road. That gives us 5 automatic wins (Minnesota (173), @Northwestern (152), Northwestern (152), Michigan (52), @PSU (157)) and 4 automatic losses (Wisc (6), Indiana (21), @Purdue (42), @Indiana (21)) in the remaining schedule and puts us at 7-7 in the Big Ten. That leaves 2 "swing" games:

1/30 MSU (RPI 25)
3/3 @Iowa (115)

Right now we look and feel like a bubble team, which is what the numbers suggest. 9-7 may get us in with a BTT win but our next 2 games at home are great chances to play our best game of the year and steal a big win. That would be huge.

Illinois/Minnesota In-game Observations

2007-01-18T10:30:00.000-05:00

1st half, 20:00-16:00

-nice to see initial emphasis on the inside game
-we should be able to work the offensive glass all night
-Illinois -6.5 looking like a steal
-expecting a lot of zone from Minnesota to force long shots
-no need to double team tonight
-Pruitt better not be hurt
-Arnold should be fine tonight
-it's fun to go up 13-0

1st half, 16:00-12:00

-I don't fear the barn
-darn, they scored
-never saw any of our injured players leading like Tollackson
-bogus OB call against Frazier
-good to see Pruitt back in the game
-why aren't we drawing any fouls on offense?
-we should be pulling away now...I don't like it

1st half, 12:00-8:00

-we have no fast break
-2 fouls on Randle = not good
-where has the scoring gone?
-we are slowly losing our edge
-Pruitt poor passing out of the triple team
-disgusted at how we let them back in this game
-we can't screen to save our lives
-Carlwell has nice hands/intangibles

1st half, 8:00-4:00

-hooray for Tim Brewster
-10-0 run really calms the nerves
-I wonder if one of our assistants will coach at Minnesota next year
-Carter looks really smooth tonight
-McBride really picking his spots well

1st half, 4:00-0:00

-fast break!
-we don't finish halves well
-vicious blocks from Minnesota
-effort was ok there, just got blocked

2nd half, 20:00-16:00

-Pruitt in foul trouble again
-Randle seemed energized by the dunk
-I think we've got this game

2nd half, 16:00-12:00

-it's weird that our team has to think for a half-second before they really exert themselves or rally around teammates
-someone owns us off the dribble every game
-Minnesota is a lousy team and it's nice to have this big lead
-FT shooting tonight is pretty lousy
-Pruitt exceeded his range
-Brock has great instincts around the basket
-glad Frazier didn't go flying off the court there

2nd half, 12:00-8:00

-McBride is hot tonight
-McBride also starting to be more of a vocal leader
-Frazier doesn't have it tonight
-I want more dunks
-Minnesota clawing back into the game
-I feel bad for Arnold, especially with the mask, but he wasn't fouled there

2nd half, 8:00-4:00

-wrong Erin on the sidelines tonight
-Randle set a nice screen on Meacham (doh!)
-we've stalled on offense again
-still nothing from Jamar
-Minnesota is back in this game
-not sure I agree with the call against Meacham
-I do agree with the offensive foul, counting the bucket
-tough call against Randle

2nd half, 4:00-0:00

-Illinois is not getting any easy buckets against the press
-I like seeing McBride take it to the hoop but he's not too good at it yet
-Randle only showed up for about 5 minutes tonight
-Pruitt with a little revenge
-really feels good to get a road win and another Big Ten win
-zzz

Recruit, Recruit, Recruit, Recruit!!!!

2007-01-16T16:57:00.000-05:00

After losing 4 of their last 5 games, many Illini fans have resigned themselves to a berth in the NIT and given up on this team. I still have hope for the NCAA Tournament, but I'm not sure I can convince anyone else of that at this juncture. So, how do we fix things in the House of 'Paign? In the words of Ron Zook, "Recruit, Recruit, Recruit, Recruit!!!!"
In this deep thought we flash ahead to the 2010-2011 season. Thankfully, all of the NITwits on our current roster will be long gone then. Well, Richard Semrau will still be here, but we were undefeated this year with him in the lineup so he (like Coach K one year in the '90s) doesn't have this held against him on his permanent record.
Here is the scholarship situation for 2007-2010
2007: 5 (4 taken)
2008: 2 (0 taken)
2009: 3 (0 taken)
2010: 2 (1 taken)
Now we get to the good part, where I fill in the rest of the roster using some wishful thinking and some high-quality insight gained from lurking over at Rivals. (illini32 has all the best info and I encourage everyone to subscribe there and get in the know).
I now present to you the lineup for the 2011 National Champion Fighting Illini

STARTERS:
PG: Demetri McCamey (SR)
SG: DJ Richardson (SO)
SF: Jereme Richmond (FR)
PF: Richard Semrau (RS-SR)
C: Michael Dunigan (JR)

BENCH:
SG: Quinton Watkins (SR)
PF: Bill Cole (RS-JR)
C: Mike Tisdale (RS-JR)
PG: Lewis Jackson (JR)
SF: Leon Powell (SR)
PG: DeAndre McCamey (FR)
SG: Crandall Head (FR)
PF: Jordan Prosser (RS-FR)

1/15 NCAA Quest Update

2007-01-15T17:19:00.000-05:00

Well, we lost to MSU, as predicted. It would have been nice to steal a game but it's still most important to win the 3 swing games. Now, according to Ken Pomeroy, Illinois has an RPI of 39 (down ever so slightly from 38). I think we'll get in if (but not only if) our RPI is 40 or better. I feel comfortable asserting that Illinois will beat any team with a >150 RPI on the road and a >50 RPI at AH. I'm also sad to say that I expect Illinois to lose to any team with a <25 RPI at AH and a <50 RPI on the road. That gives us 5 automatic wins (@Minnesota (157), Minnesota (157), @Northwestern (159), Northwestern (159), Michigan (59)) and 4 automatic losses (Wisc (10), Indiana (22) @Purdue (43), @Indiana (22)) in the remaining schedule and puts us at 6-7 in the Big Ten. That leaves 3 "swing" games:

1/24 @PSU (RPI 148)
1/30 MSU (RPI 25)
3/3 @Iowa (RPI 109)

What has happened is that the RPI for other Big Ten teams seems to have improved. This is bad news for us (if you believe my formula, which will be re-evaluated based on shifting RPIs of our past opponents) as our home game against Indiana has shifted to the loss column and our game @PSU can no longer be considered a near-certain victory. This puts us at 9-7 even if we win the 3 "swing" games and even that might not get us into the NCAA Tournament. For the first time this season I must say that our team needs to make a substantial improvement or we are a bubble team at best.

NFL playoff picks

2007-01-12T18:59:00.000-05:00

I feel very confident about these two:

Chicago over Seattle 20-17
Baltimore over Indianapolis 31-20

I'm iffy about these two:

New England over San Diego (Chargers would beat any other team) 17-16
New Orleans over Philadelphia (this may be rigged) 35-13

RPI and "Swing Games"

2007-01-11T19:11:00.000-05:00

Last night's win over Iowa was the first step towards a 10-6 record in the Big Ten and a nearly certain NCAA berth. Currently (according to Ken Pomeroy) Illinois has an RPI of 38. Right now I feel comfortable asserting that Illinois will beat any team with a >150 RPI on the road and a >50 RPI at AH. I'm also sad to say that I expect Illinois to lose to any team with a <25 RPI at AH and a <50 RPI on the road. That gives us 6 automatic wins (@Minnesota, Minnesota, @Northwestern, Northwestern, Michigan, @Penn State) and 4 automatic losses (@MSU, Wisc, @Purdue, @Indiana) in the remaining schedule and puts us at 7-6 in the Big Ten. That leaves 3 "swing" games:

1/23 Indiana (RPI 27)
1/30 MSU (RPI 30)
3/3 @Iowa (RPI 116)

We need to win them all to assure ourselves of an NCAA berth. That seems like a tall order with the health of this team but I believe they can do it. I'll keep track of our performances and update this analysis as the numbers change. I'm also planning in-depth previews of these swing games as they approach. I'm dubbing this the NCAA Quest and I will track it through the end of the regular season and give a prognosis heading into the Big Ten Tournament.

Illinois/Iowa in-game observations

2007-01-11T00:17:00.000-05:00

1st half, 20:00-16:00

Pruitt can shoot?
Randle and McBride with good starts.
Iowa isn't very good.
Foul situation is good so far.
Slow pace helps with our injury situation.
Feeling very good about this game.

1st half, 16:00-12:00

-good start on a new arena with all the bricks
-Marcus Arnold...why?!?
-Randle looks more dangerous today
-great job rebounding
-McBride wants to shoot a 3 every time he touches the ball...if he avoids forcing "heat checks" that will be a good thing tonight

1st half, 12:00-8:00

-I feel like I'm watching the game in slow-mo
-Brock with his signature hustle play
-Iowa can't guard Pruitt, we need to feed him more
-not expecting any contribution from Jamar tonight
-foul situation is strongly in our favor except for Pruitt's 2nd just now
-McBride needs to realize that there are reasons why some of his shots go in and others don't

1st half, 8:00-4:00

-Iowa got the momentum after 2 fouls on Carter/Pruitt
-Need to attack the zone more aggressively to score
-FT shooting isn't helping us
-Randle keeping us afloat during poor 3-pt shooting from Brock/Meacham
-I miss Richard Semrau right now

1st half, 4:00-0:00

-missed dunk by Randle made me want to cry
-made dunk made me cheer
-Weber needs to play guys with 2 fouls before halftime
-I miss Frazier right now
-Carlwell > Arnold
-bad foul by McBride, who needs to do something new on offense
-bad flashbacks involving McBride and video review at AH
-need to put Randle on Haluska
-Randle is our first-half MVP
-sucks to be losing

2nd half, 20:00-16:00

-keep feeding Pruitt...will foul Iowa out
-Pruitt has moves
-Randle dunk (*applause*)
-STOP FOULING HALUSKA ON 3's!

2nd half, 16:00-12:00

-Meacham won't play next year
-I miss Frazier
-our defense has gotten progressively worse as the game has gone on
-this team has some heart, if little else

2nd half, 12:00-8:00

-Jamar's 3-point shot is broken tonight (or we'd be up 15+)
-yay, 50 points!
-momentum back with Illinois
-we can score inside at will...need to make this happen
-we must win this
-Warren can shoot, thankfully
-Randle can play when he tries

2nd half, 8:00-4:00

-this strange feeling...happiness?
-some of these plays Randle has made passing the rock (*applause*)
-alley-oop? transition? (*applause*)
-technical on Jamar is weak
-are we having fun yet?
-Meacham on the bench...nice decision by Weber
-defensive intensity has really cranked up
-this is Illini basketball, finally

2nd half, 4:00-0:00

-not looking forward to playing @Iowa with their FT shooting
-some ugly possessions down the stretch
-really bad stretch after the final TV timeout
-McBride shot = dagger!
-Warren Carter fouled out...not sure what's up with that
-37.1 seconds left...heartattack begins
-34.1 seconds left...heartattack intensifies
-32.0 seconds left...heartattack reaches critical mass
-32.0 seconds left...inhale
-18.3 seconds left...exhale
-*whew*

Resolving the BCS/Championship Dilemma

2007-01-09T17:20:00.000-05:00

Here is what I would do:

1. Limit the season to 11 games.
2. 8-team seeded playoff with the first round on 12/26-12/27
3. Replace the four BCS bowls with a college football Final Four, including a consolation game (the 3 vs. 4 game wouldn't mean any less than it does now).
4. Using 4 additional bowls in a playoff will wipe out 8 slots and keep the lame 6-6 teams out of meaningless bowls.

-Boise State was robbed this year because we never got to see how they stacked up against the very best teams. One of the best games in college football history proved utterly meaningless. Notre Dame losing every bowl will have more impact and Domers will suffer more.

-The current BCS system does a great job of picking 8 (10 was too many) teams for high-level matchups. Filling most of the slots with conference champions still keeps that meaningful. A couple wildcard slots give teams like Boise State a chance to prove themselves.

-If your team is really that good, you have a lot of NFL players that shouldn't struggle to play up to 15 games. You don't even extend the college football season beyond where it is now.

-It eliminates the scenario where a team has 51 days between games (what a joke).

-The general public gets to see the championship team play more than one meaningful game, helping them recognize a true champion.

-BCS (Bowl Championship Series) will actually become a series of bowls to determine a champion.

An updated look at the 07-08 lineup

2007-01-09T17:18:00.000-05:00

Frazier - 1
McCamey - 1
Meacham - 1/2
Smith - 2
Brock - 2/3
Q - 2/3
Randle - 3/4
Semrau - 4
Cole - 4
Carlwell - 4/5
CJ Jackson - 4/5
Pruitt - 5
Tisdale - 5

-So we have 2.5 PGs, 2.5 SGs, 1.5 SFs, 3.5 PFs, and 3 C's.
-This basically means we have one extra PF and are one SF short, but otherwise have an extremely balanced lineup.
-PF is the one position where we don't return a starter so it will be interesting to see if anyone can rise up from the crowd and claim the starting spot.
-Another possibility is that we recruit another SF (Leon Freeman, JUCO?) and have someone transfer.
-It's also probable that we have one or two redshirts.
-One intriguing option is starting Brock at the 3 and Randle at the 4.
-Our incoming freshmen guards are pretty good and they should both get significant PT.
-Next year's team should be a significant improvement as long as someone steps up to replace the scoring we lose with Warren Carter.

Weber's new approach to recruiting

2007-01-09T17:14:00.000-05:00

I think after Sherron Collins chose Kansas, Weber announced that he was going to take a different approach to recruiting. Let me explain what I think his old approach was and why I believe things will improve in the future with a new approach.

Weber used to try and hold out for "elite" talent. In that sense, he was actually in agreement with some of his detractors [those who really wanted a lineup stocked with All-Americans]. Weber desperately wanted players like Julian Wright, Jon Scheyer, Sherron Collins, Derrick Rose, and Eric Gordon. I get very frustrated when people get mad at Weber and act like he is Ron Turner and is trying to win with lesser talent. Weber is not lazy with recruiting. He works very hard and probably goes to bed at night dreaming of "best backcourt ever" lineups too. Weber has never argued that he wants anything but elite talent. Some have tried to defend Weber by saying that he can win with average talent, but his intent was to focus on recruiting the very best players available to the bitter end.

Actually, that has caused the problem. For whatever reason (I won't repeat the speculation), Weber has not been able to land the elite talent. This is pretty typical with Illinois. The problem is that in fighting unwinnable recruiting battles, Weber let the great Plan B talent slip away. There are several top 100 players that we passed on in order to chase recruits that didn't come here. We have struggled because of having to fill our roster with some Plan C guys, transfers, or empty seats on the bench (banked scholarships).

The good news for Illini fans is that Weber seems to be figuring this out. Now, while we don't have Derrick Rose, we still have Demetri McCamey. At one time he was a plan B but now he's looking pretty good, especially since he signed the LOI. Weber also just got a verbal from Quinton Watkins and did not foolishly let 2 scholarships roll over to '08 to try to hit the home run then (it won't happen, but now we will get a single or a double instead of striking out).

For those of you who long for top talent, there is a new hope there as well. Weber is good at identifying top players early on, so now he is offering them earlier and pressing for commitments. While there is some risk involved, getting a commitment from Jereme Richmond was probably our best hope at getting an All-American in our 2010 class. Weber also offered DJ Richardson and that early offer may pay off soon. The obvious upside to this new approach is that if Weber sees that the kid isn't really interested, he can start targeting other players and in the end nobody gets burned.

Weber's recruiting will improve in the future because of this new approach, if nothing else. Bruce Weber is not a salesman on the order or Ron Zook or Thad Matta, but he should be able to get us back on track. I understand that for some Weber is a victim of his own success (and will not be able to meet the heightened expectations after April '05) but I am confident that this program is not headed for its downfall under Weber. I think in the long run that Weber will do very well here, and I am heartened by that.

8 Problems I've Observed in the Weber Era

2007-01-09T17:11:00.000-05:00

These aren't about a game or two but are consistent problems that are becoming more and more apparent each year.

1. Failure to land a single All-American caliber recruit in 4 years. Obviously the Eric Gordon mess affects this, but there is a flawed approach in pursuing elite recruits that we can't land that leads to problem 2.

2. Failure to recruit enough players to fill the 13 basketball scholarships, coupled with an overreliance on transfers that are unable to compete in the Big Ten.

3. Inability to stop slashing wing players on other teams or to defend the lane against strong post players. This is probably because of the strict man-to-man defensive approach, which also leads to problem 4.

4. Inability to effectively attack zone defenses, relying excessively on perimeter shooting. This is probably because the players do not practice sufficiently against a zone defense.

5. Insufficient use of dribble penetration from guards, again leading to an overreliance on perimeter shooting. This leaves us vulnerable to cold spells and does not put our opponents into foul trouble. It also leads to problem 6.

6. Poor free-throw shooting. I'm not sure why individual free-throw shooting performances are bad. However, as a team we end up with most of our free throws being shot by poor FT shooters (this year our FT shooting % is determined by Frazier, Carter, and Pruitt).

7. Lack of a traditional post game. We struggle to score inside even against teams where we have a substantial size advantage. This is a big reason why we struggle at times against low-major teams that get demolished by other teams. It also completes the generic formula for beating us where you overplay our guards on the perimeter and play behind our big men in the post.

8. Rich McBride, Warren Carter, and Brian Randle. These guys have been here all four years and maybe they just aren't good basketball players, despite their recruiting rankings and/or athletic ability. Part of it is Weber's fault for not being able to maximize their talents, but you can't blame coaching for everything. Just replacing these players might make us a better team in future.

Blueprint for making the NCAAs

2007-01-09T17:08:00.000-05:00

All we have to do is win these games and we are 22-9 (10-6):

vs. Iowa
@Minnesota
vs. Indiana
vs. Michigan State
vs. Minnesota
@Northwestern
vs. Northwestern
vs. Michigan
@Penn State
@Iowa

that would put us at 8-2 in our last 10 Big Ten games, and we'd be a lock for the NCAAs.

If we slip up, we can make up a game by winning one of these games:
@Michigan State
vs. Wisconsin
@Purdue
@Indiana

none of those games are lost causes.I could tell by looking at the schedule that this was going to be a very tough stretch for us and was hoping that we could steal one of the last 3 games. Nevertheless, none of these were really bad losses. Yes, we played poorly in these games but it would be foolish to think that we won't rebound from our slump in play.The worst is over, Illini fans! Time to gear up for a run to the NCAA Tournament and a better team next year.

Welcome to my blog

2007-01-09T17:01:00.000-05:00

This blog is originating as an outgrowth of some of my posts as IlliniJoe81 on http://illinois.scout.com

Now the reader will have access to my detailed thoughts on various Illinois sports issues, along with my take on current events, science, and cultural issues without the clutter. Illiniboard users will not have to return to the scout site to find my postings.

I'll admit that this is a hugely egotistic, self-important effort...but that's what makes it fun.