Illini Basketball Next Year - What We Know

Since it's the middle of the week and I'm bored, now seems like a good time to think about how the Illini will do next year. The only problem with that is that we don't even know how they are going to do this year (no idea if they will win or lose their next game or where they will be seeded from 3-7 in the BTT). When you add in the possibility that our 2007 recruiting class is incomplete and the Jamar situation, there is no hope of knowing how next season will go. However, there are some things that we do know and that can help us get started.

Rich McBride, Warren Carter, and Marcus Arnold are all graduating. We lose 2 starters and a significant role player in our rotation. Together they average 25.6 ppg (of our 65.8) and 70.5 mpg (of 200). McBride is a 2-year starter and Carter is a 1-year starter. In terms of efficiency, McBride has a .351 FG%, .353 3PT%, .724 FT%, 2.1 rebounds/game and 54/37 A/TO. Carter has a .488 FG%, .368 FT%, .717 FT%, 6.3 rebounds/game, 58/71 A/TO. Carter and McBride combined for 531 of 1596 FG attempts. So that's what we're losing.

What about the other 3 starters and their efficiency?

Frazier .365 FG%, .325 3PT%, .606 FT%, 4.7 rebounds/game and 128/75 A/TO
Randle .544 FG%, .385 3PT%, .595 FT%, 4.4 rebounds/game and 23/33 A/TO
Pruitt .545 FG%, no 3PT%, .516 FT%, 7.4 rebounds/game and 7/57 A/TO

It's reasonable to expect returning starters to get more shots. We will likely see an Illini team that is excellent at rebounding and efficient shooting, but BRUTAL at the FT line and not a very good passing team.

Defensively, we should be excellent next season. All three returning starters are great defenders and Carter is the only weak link on defense this year (although he is improving).

Offensively we have some serious issues. We might not have any great pure shooters or pure scorers. This is a huge problem. If Jamar is not back, we will need big contributions from Q and Semrau. Both of them seem to have plenty of potential but you never know with freshmen (or even redshirt freshmen).

It's hard to say much more once you realize that it all comes down to finding new ways to put the ball in the hoop. We need to have 3 legitimate threats behind the line and one post scorer for Weber's offense to succeed.

Here are the questions for next year

-Will Jamar be back, and if so can he return to his scorer's form?
-Who starts at PF? Can he score?
-How much can our freshmen guards contribute?
-Will either Brock or a new recruit emerge as a wing scorer coming off the bench?
-Will injuries or off-court incidents disrupt the season again?
-Will this team be ready to handle a difficult non-conference schedule?
-Who will provide the necessary leadership to overcome adversity and win on the road in the Big Ten?

In summary, I don't know if Illini games next year will be good or bad, but I do know that they will once again be ugly.