Nice road win over Northwestern to move to 6-5 in the Big Ten. The win total is up to 18 and that's starting to look good. I'd say we're at the point now where we have a >50% chance of making the NCAAs, but there are a lot of bubble teams fighting for a few spots so we have to keep this going. Our RPI is steady at 44, so I guess we're still right in the middle of the bubble (RPI 40-50). 6-4 in the last 10 and 6-5 road/neutral. I feel comfortable asserting that Illinois will beat any team with a >125 RPI on the road and a >50 RPI at AH. I'm also sad to say that I expect Illinois to lose to any team with a <20 RPI at AH and a <70 RPI (up from <75 after NW) on the road. That gives us 3 automatic wins (NW (153), Michigan (54), @PSU (195)) and 1 automatic loss (@Indiana (17)) in the remaining schedule and puts us at 9-6 in the Big Ten. That leaves 1 "swing" game:
3/3 @Iowa (83)
Another factor that is important is where we finish in the Big Ten. I think a top 5 finish is essential for comparisons to other teams and for our BTT seeding. Right now we have the following pack in the Big Ten (including predicted finish).
3. Indiana 6-3 (11-5)
4. Iowa 6-4 (9-7)
5. Illinois 6-5 (9-7)
6. Purdue 5-5 (9-7)
7. Michigan 4-5 (7-9)
8. Michigan State 4-6 (7-9)
If everything finishes as predicted we will be in a tie for the 4-6 spots with Iowa and Purdue. I'm not sure how the tiebreakers work but I will find out soon. The more important thing is that we are playing with house money against Indiana and if we somehow steal a win there we would be on track for 10-6 and 3rd place, knocking them down to 4th place. We're sure to get hosed by the refs so it will be ugly. However, this Illini team is improving and Indiana isn't. You never know.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment