Tough loss to Indiana, as a victory there would have likely sewn up an NCAA berth, for all practical purposes. Still, it was encouraging to see the effort and improved play from the Illini. Our RPI actually improved to 41, so we're nearly off the bubble (RPI 40-50). 6-4 in the last 10 and 6-6 road/neutral. I feel comfortable asserting that Illinois will beat any team with a >125 RPI on the road and a >50 RPI at AH. I'm also sad to say that I expect Illinois to lose to any team with a <20 RPI at AH and a <50 RPI (up from <70 after a strong performance at Indiana) on the road. That gives us 3 automatic wins (NW (147), Michigan (58), @PSU (206)) in the remaining schedule and puts us at 9-6 in the Big Ten. That leaves 1 "swing" game:
3/3 @Iowa (80)
Another factor that is important is where we finish in the Big Ten. I think a top 5 finish is essential for comparisons to other teams and for our BTT seeding. Right now we have the following pack in the Big Ten (including predicted finish).
3. Indiana 7-3 (12-4)
4. Iowa 6-5 (9-7)
5. Illinois 6-6 (9-7)
6. Michigan 5-5 (7-9)
7. Purdue 5-6 (9-7)
8. Michigan State 4-6 (7-9)
If everything finishes as predicted we will be in a tie for the 4-6 spots with Iowa and Purdue. I still think we can beat Iowa and finish at 10-6, which would put us in the NCAAs.
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