RPI and "Swing Games"

Last night's win over Iowa was the first step towards a 10-6 record in the Big Ten and a nearly certain NCAA berth. Currently (according to Ken Pomeroy) Illinois has an RPI of 38. Right now I feel comfortable asserting that Illinois will beat any team with a >150 RPI on the road and a >50 RPI at AH. I'm also sad to say that I expect Illinois to lose to any team with a <25 RPI at AH and a <50 RPI on the road. That gives us 6 automatic wins (@Minnesota, Minnesota, @Northwestern, Northwestern, Michigan, @Penn State) and 4 automatic losses (@MSU, Wisc, @Purdue, @Indiana) in the remaining schedule and puts us at 7-6 in the Big Ten. That leaves 3 "swing" games:

1/23 Indiana (RPI 27)
1/30 MSU (RPI 30)
3/3 @Iowa (RPI 116)

We need to win them all to assure ourselves of an NCAA berth. That seems like a tall order with the health of this team but I believe they can do it. I'll keep track of our performances and update this analysis as the numbers change. I'm also planning in-depth previews of these swing games as they approach. I'm dubbing this the NCAA Quest and I will track it through the end of the regular season and give a prognosis heading into the Big Ten Tournament.