Wednesday, January 31, 2007

1/31 NCAA Quest Update

Huge win over MSU yesterday, as that was one of the swing games. Now that we have a few quality wins people might believe that we're an NCAA Tournament team. Our RPI improved to 42, closer to being off the bubble (RPI 40-50). I feel comfortable asserting that Illinois will beat any team with a >125 RPI on the road and a >50 RPI at AH. I'm also sad to say that I expect Illinois to lose to any team with a <20 RPI at AH and a <75 RPI on the road. That gives us 4 automatic wins (Minnesota (177), @NW (128), NW (128), @PSU (184)) and 1 automatic loss (@Indiana (19)) in the remaining schedule and puts us at 8-6 in the Big Ten. That leaves 2 "swing" games:

2/21 Michigan (45)
3/3 @Iowa (115)

I think we are looking at 9-7 or 10-6 in the Big Ten and we'll be on the good side of the bubble with a chance to ice things in the Big Ten Tournament. Now is the time to get on a roll with Minnesota coming to town. We have to be consistent and win the games we're supposed to win.

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