We lost to Purdue. The way we lost was upsetting but it doesn't hurt us much in the big picture as long as we can deliver in the "win" and "swing" games. Our RPI again is 46, leaving us on the bubble (RPI 40-50). I feel comfortable asserting that Illinois will beat any team with a >125 RPI on the road and a >50 RPI at AH. I'm also sad to say that I expect Illinois to lose to any team with a <20 RPI at AH and a <75 RPI (downgraded after the ugly Purdue road loss) on the road. That gives us 4 automatic wins (Minnesota (174), @NW (133), NW (133), @PSU (183)) and 1 automatic loss (@Indiana (21)) in the remaining schedule and puts us at 7-6 in the Big Ten. That leaves 3 "swing" games:
1/30 MSU (RPI 28)
2/21 Michigan (44)
3/3 @Iowa (112)
I think we are looking at 9-7 or 10-6 in the Big Ten and we'll be on the good side of the bubble with a chance to ice things in the Big Ten Tournament. We need to get healthy and generate some scoring if we want to roll off a string of wins. This is a scary time as the schedule is easier but we can't afford any slip-ups.
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