So, Illinois took care of Minnesota on the road, as expected. According to Ken Pomeroy, Illinois has an RPI of 41. I think we'll get in if (but not only if) our RPI is 40 or better, so we're a bubble team right now. I feel comfortable asserting that Illinois will beat any team with a >125 RPI on the road (changed from >150 after further review) and a >50 RPI at AH. I'm also sad to say that I expect Illinois to lose to any team with a <25 RPI at AH and a <50 RPI on the road. That gives us 5 automatic wins (Minnesota (173), @Northwestern (152), Northwestern (152), Michigan (52), @PSU (157)) and 4 automatic losses (Wisc (6), Indiana (21), @Purdue (42), @Indiana (21)) in the remaining schedule and puts us at 7-7 in the Big Ten. That leaves 2 "swing" games:
1/30 MSU (RPI 25)
3/3 @Iowa (115)
Right now we look and feel like a bubble team, which is what the numbers suggest. 9-7 may get us in with a BTT win but our next 2 games at home are great chances to play our best game of the year and steal a big win. That would be huge.
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