Well, we lost to MSU, as predicted. It would have been nice to steal a game but it's still most important to win the 3 swing games. Now, according to Ken Pomeroy, Illinois has an RPI of 39 (down ever so slightly from 38). I think we'll get in if (but not only if) our RPI is 40 or better. I feel comfortable asserting that Illinois will beat any team with a >150 RPI on the road and a >50 RPI at AH. I'm also sad to say that I expect Illinois to lose to any team with a <25 RPI at AH and a <50 RPI on the road. That gives us 5 automatic wins (@Minnesota (157), Minnesota (157), @Northwestern (159), Northwestern (159), Michigan (59)) and 4 automatic losses (Wisc (10), Indiana (22) @Purdue (43), @Indiana (22)) in the remaining schedule and puts us at 6-7 in the Big Ten. That leaves 3 "swing" games:
1/24 @PSU (RPI 148)
1/30 MSU (RPI 25)
3/3 @Iowa (RPI 109)
What has happened is that the RPI for other Big Ten teams seems to have improved. This is bad news for us (if you believe my formula, which will be re-evaluated based on shifting RPIs of our past opponents) as our home game against Indiana has shifted to the loss column and our game @PSU can no longer be considered a near-certain victory. This puts us at 9-7 even if we win the 3 "swing" games and even that might not get us into the NCAA Tournament. For the first time this season I must say that our team needs to make a substantial improvement or we are a bubble team at best.
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